Climate change in the Netherlands
July 10, 2020 9:28 AM
Do you have any anecdotes or sources about climate change in the Netherlands, how the country is addressing it, and how people think about it or cope with it?
Context: My family and I are looking to leave the US for a variety of reasons, one of which is climate change - we are dismayed that as a country we are still debating about whether climate change is real. We also are concerned that when an inevitable climate disaster happens, the country will not be willing/able to take care of affected people.
The Netherlands is currently the top place on our list of places to go for a variety of reasons, but from what I've read (and from looking at a map), the Netherlands will likely be hit hard by climate change. But it also seems like the country has a government that cares about public infrastructure and will be working to deal with it. Are my assumptions true? Does climate change worry the average Dutch person, on either the micro scale (how will coastal cities in the Netherlands deal with it) or the macro scale (how will the world deal with it)?
For reference, we are looking to move to the Randstad specifically (possibly Rotterdam) due to opportunities, etc. (I know, I know, this is right near the water).
tldr; If we're afraid of living too close to an American coast because of a climate change event, is it dumb of us to move close to a Dutch coast, or does the country seem to have a handle on things?
Context: My family and I are looking to leave the US for a variety of reasons, one of which is climate change - we are dismayed that as a country we are still debating about whether climate change is real. We also are concerned that when an inevitable climate disaster happens, the country will not be willing/able to take care of affected people.
The Netherlands is currently the top place on our list of places to go for a variety of reasons, but from what I've read (and from looking at a map), the Netherlands will likely be hit hard by climate change. But it also seems like the country has a government that cares about public infrastructure and will be working to deal with it. Are my assumptions true? Does climate change worry the average Dutch person, on either the micro scale (how will coastal cities in the Netherlands deal with it) or the macro scale (how will the world deal with it)?
For reference, we are looking to move to the Randstad specifically (possibly Rotterdam) due to opportunities, etc. (I know, I know, this is right near the water).
tldr; If we're afraid of living too close to an American coast because of a climate change event, is it dumb of us to move close to a Dutch coast, or does the country seem to have a handle on things?
I visited Rotterdam and saw some of the ways that they're preparing for flooding—I do think they're doing substantially more than most coastal cities. Here's some detail from an old Times article. That said, Rotterdam is below sea level and it's an incredible challenge. Nowhere is safe from climate change, but your overall risk might be lower somewhere like the Upper Midwest or, say, Maine outside the range of future flood zones.
posted by pinochiette at 10:13 AM on July 10, 2020
posted by pinochiette at 10:13 AM on July 10, 2020
I have been fascinated by this massive Dutch project - Make Room for the Rivers. Seems like a saner approach than many but still it's a very low-lying country.
posted by leslies at 10:41 AM on July 10, 2020
posted by leslies at 10:41 AM on July 10, 2020
The Dutch government puts out its plans on dealing with this in English, so you can read them yourself and see if you think they are up to the challenge. You can also live in a floating home if that seems safer.
The 1953 North Sea Flood is the disaster that most people reference when thinking of how bad sea flooding can get in these areas.
One thing to consider in climate change flooding scenarios is not just sea flooding but river flooding and concentrated rainfall events - some inland areas may be just as at risk as coastal ones (just because inland areas were mentioned in a previous answer). The Netherlands' baseline risk from climate change does seem a lot higher than other places - but there are a lot of unknowns about exactly how climate change will affect places at local levels. And then there's the relative nature of risk - if you were to offer me the choice of living in the low lying areas of England facing the North Sea or the Netherlands, I'd choose the Netherlands in a heartbeat, but I'd rather live further above sea level.
posted by Vortisaur at 10:49 AM on July 10, 2020
The 1953 North Sea Flood is the disaster that most people reference when thinking of how bad sea flooding can get in these areas.
One thing to consider in climate change flooding scenarios is not just sea flooding but river flooding and concentrated rainfall events - some inland areas may be just as at risk as coastal ones (just because inland areas were mentioned in a previous answer). The Netherlands' baseline risk from climate change does seem a lot higher than other places - but there are a lot of unknowns about exactly how climate change will affect places at local levels. And then there's the relative nature of risk - if you were to offer me the choice of living in the low lying areas of England facing the North Sea or the Netherlands, I'd choose the Netherlands in a heartbeat, but I'd rather live further above sea level.
posted by Vortisaur at 10:49 AM on July 10, 2020
There are maps showing the parts of the Netherlands that would flood with a certain sea level rise and no additional countermeasures. And if it was just sea level rise, those maps would show where not to settle.
But there's the additional problems of a reduction in arable land, not only by direct flooding but also increasing groundwater salinity levels further inland. And of course people moving out of flooded or potentially flooded areas putting more pressure on the remaining land and its infrastructure. Compounding this further is changing rainfall patterns: the last three years have been exceptionally dry and groundwater levels have dropped alarmingly, causing (sometimes severe) restrictions on agricultural irrigation and industrial and private water use.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:25 PM on July 10, 2020
But there's the additional problems of a reduction in arable land, not only by direct flooding but also increasing groundwater salinity levels further inland. And of course people moving out of flooded or potentially flooded areas putting more pressure on the remaining land and its infrastructure. Compounding this further is changing rainfall patterns: the last three years have been exceptionally dry and groundwater levels have dropped alarmingly, causing (sometimes severe) restrictions on agricultural irrigation and industrial and private water use.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:25 PM on July 10, 2020
Context: My family and I are looking to leave the US for a variety of reasons, one of which is climate change - we are dismayed that as a country we are still debating about whether climate change is real. We also are concerned that when an inevitable climate disaster happens, the country will not be willing/able to take care of affected people.
With many primarily social problems, recognition of the problem, dealing with the problem, and then as a result solving the problem follow one from the other.
Take, for example, healthcare. A topic that I know will be something you as an American looking to leave will have at the top of your mind. Having decided that we wanted it to be available for everyone, we created a system in The Netherlands that assures this. It's a nice compact national level problem
Climate change, as you know, is very different. Whether a country does everything it possibly can to prevent or does absolutely nothing will matter not one bit in how the inhabitants of that country experience it.
We can therefore disregard what The Netherlands is doing to prevent climate change as it is no more relevant to your particular needs than what Austria or Romania are doing.
Two questions:
1) Will The Netherlands be particularly badly hit by climate change? Specifically by sea level rise.
Challenging to determine. Local sea level and global mean see level will not rise by the same amount due to the shifting of ice mass which pulls water towards it due to gravity. The net effect will be to make large parts of the densely populated Randstad extremely risky and difficult to defend from water ingress.
2) How well prepared is The Netherlands for sea level rise?
Much better than any other low lying country, as can be seen in the links posted by Vortisaur.
That being said, The Netherlands is a small country which would see its most productive regions lost if sea level rose substantially and that would happen at the same time that the entire world was facing similar problems so we would have to rely entirely on our own resources.
tldr; If we're afraid of living too close to an American coast because of a climate change event, is it dumb of us to move close to a Dutch coast, or does the country seem to have a handle on things?
I'm afraid that despite trying quite a bit harder than other countries (if still not hard enough) it just won't be enough. By all means, pursue an opportunity there but make sure you keep your citizenship to high ground countries and consider carefully whether you want to make commitments like buying property.
The Netherlands would do a much better job of using the resources it had available but the US would have more resources and a more diverse geography to retreat to. In the long term (30+ years) you will be better off in the US on high ground than you are in Rotterdam.
posted by atrazine at 2:46 AM on July 11, 2020
With many primarily social problems, recognition of the problem, dealing with the problem, and then as a result solving the problem follow one from the other.
Take, for example, healthcare. A topic that I know will be something you as an American looking to leave will have at the top of your mind. Having decided that we wanted it to be available for everyone, we created a system in The Netherlands that assures this. It's a nice compact national level problem
Climate change, as you know, is very different. Whether a country does everything it possibly can to prevent or does absolutely nothing will matter not one bit in how the inhabitants of that country experience it.
We can therefore disregard what The Netherlands is doing to prevent climate change as it is no more relevant to your particular needs than what Austria or Romania are doing.
Two questions:
1) Will The Netherlands be particularly badly hit by climate change? Specifically by sea level rise.
Challenging to determine. Local sea level and global mean see level will not rise by the same amount due to the shifting of ice mass which pulls water towards it due to gravity. The net effect will be to make large parts of the densely populated Randstad extremely risky and difficult to defend from water ingress.
2) How well prepared is The Netherlands for sea level rise?
Much better than any other low lying country, as can be seen in the links posted by Vortisaur.
That being said, The Netherlands is a small country which would see its most productive regions lost if sea level rose substantially and that would happen at the same time that the entire world was facing similar problems so we would have to rely entirely on our own resources.
tldr; If we're afraid of living too close to an American coast because of a climate change event, is it dumb of us to move close to a Dutch coast, or does the country seem to have a handle on things?
I'm afraid that despite trying quite a bit harder than other countries (if still not hard enough) it just won't be enough. By all means, pursue an opportunity there but make sure you keep your citizenship to high ground countries and consider carefully whether you want to make commitments like buying property.
The Netherlands would do a much better job of using the resources it had available but the US would have more resources and a more diverse geography to retreat to. In the long term (30+ years) you will be better off in the US on high ground than you are in Rotterdam.
posted by atrazine at 2:46 AM on July 11, 2020
I can't claim to be an 'average' Dutch person (who can?) but one thing that's very much been on my mind these past few years is how much hotter our cities are getting, and will continue to get. Houses in the Randstad are very much designed to keep heat in, and the built-up areas can easily get ten degrees hotter than the actual recorded temperature. When you consider that we've had a few 35-degree days in the past few summers, you can see that it can get unbearably hot even for a relatively fit and healthy adult. I'm concerned about how the heat is going to affect me in old age, when the temperatures are predicted to be much higher.
I read in the paper last year about how the city council already had plans to introduce a lot more 'refuges' from the heat so that people could take shelter every x metres along the street, for example under a tree.
FWIW I've lived in much hotter climates than this, but the heat gets almost unbearable here simply because the city and the buildings are not designed for it. They're great at keeping the heat in.
So yes, I do think this is a country that cares about public infrastructure and is taking steps to make the inevitable future more liveable. However, how that will eventually play out is anyone's guess; there are just too many variables right now to be able to make any sort of prediction.
posted by rubbish bin night at 7:41 AM on July 12, 2020
I read in the paper last year about how the city council already had plans to introduce a lot more 'refuges' from the heat so that people could take shelter every x metres along the street, for example under a tree.
FWIW I've lived in much hotter climates than this, but the heat gets almost unbearable here simply because the city and the buildings are not designed for it. They're great at keeping the heat in.
So yes, I do think this is a country that cares about public infrastructure and is taking steps to make the inevitable future more liveable. However, how that will eventually play out is anyone's guess; there are just too many variables right now to be able to make any sort of prediction.
posted by rubbish bin night at 7:41 AM on July 12, 2020
Atrazine, thank you for re-framing the question in that way. I don't know specifically about being better off in the US than in Rotterdam in 30 years, but it's hugely helpful for me to think about the trade-off between resources and structure/infrastructure/attitude, and how ideally a country would have both to not completely falter during climate change disasters. We were really excited about the Netherlands, but are going to cast around a bit more for other places to go (currently thinking Germany).
posted by taltalim at 1:36 PM on July 15, 2020
posted by taltalim at 1:36 PM on July 15, 2020
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posted by aramaic at 10:02 AM on July 10, 2020