Does heads come up more often than tails? Or vice versa?
March 15, 2010 2:17 AM
Does heads come up more often than tails? Or vice versa?
For a normal quarter (i.e., one with an eagle, not a state, on the tails side).
If there's a tiny discrepancy (say, for example, that it comes up tails 51% of the time) then I want to know about it in order to maximize my chances of winning.
For a normal quarter (i.e., one with an eagle, not a state, on the tails side).
If there's a tiny discrepancy (say, for example, that it comes up tails 51% of the time) then I want to know about it in order to maximize my chances of winning.
Well first any random sequence is going to have long strings of ones and zeros. Depending on the length of the sequence you could certainly see some (false) bias.
Secondly, the toss of a coin is a theoretical model of true randomness; it is approximated by the real toss of a coin.
I could believe that a certain coin tossed exactly the same way, in exactly the same temperature and conditions, and ignoring all other random effects, a gazillion times in sequence might well show some slight bias towards one face or the other. A coin is not perfectly balanced. The center of gravity is not exactly in the physical center and there are fluid dynamics and stuff. Sure.
But this would depend on what face was showing when it was tossed, right? It's hard to believe that the cat always lands paws down regardless of its starting position.
If you turn the coin with each toss, you might not totally remove the bias, but you could certainly make it smaller.
posted by three blind mice at 5:33 AM on March 15, 2010
Secondly, the toss of a coin is a theoretical model of true randomness; it is approximated by the real toss of a coin.
I could believe that a certain coin tossed exactly the same way, in exactly the same temperature and conditions, and ignoring all other random effects, a gazillion times in sequence might well show some slight bias towards one face or the other. A coin is not perfectly balanced. The center of gravity is not exactly in the physical center and there are fluid dynamics and stuff. Sure.
But this would depend on what face was showing when it was tossed, right? It's hard to believe that the cat always lands paws down regardless of its starting position.
If you turn the coin with each toss, you might not totally remove the bias, but you could certainly make it smaller.
posted by three blind mice at 5:33 AM on March 15, 2010
long strings of repeating ones and zeros.
posted by three blind mice at 5:34 AM on March 15, 2010
posted by three blind mice at 5:34 AM on March 15, 2010
Without being able to repeat the environment, the mechanics of the flip, and the coin itself, seems to me the answer could be either heads or tails.
posted by jasondigitized at 7:44 AM on March 15, 2010
posted by jasondigitized at 7:44 AM on March 15, 2010
There is a slight but measurable bias in favor of a coin coming up the same face as was up when it was tossed.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 8:28 AM on March 15, 2010
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 8:28 AM on March 15, 2010
A B A B A B A B A B A B........
when you stop the pattern you will get either A = B or A > B
but you will never get B > A
posted by swbarrett at 8:48 AM on March 15, 2010
when you stop the pattern you will get either A = B or A > B
but you will never get B > A
posted by swbarrett at 8:48 AM on March 15, 2010
The bias isn't intrinsic to the coin. However, there's a " 51% chance of landing on the same face it was launched. (If it starts out as heads, there's a 51% chance it will end as heads)."
posted by Kattullus at 11:10 AM on March 15, 2010
posted by Kattullus at 11:10 AM on March 15, 2010
This thread is closed to new comments.
posted by devnull at 2:56 AM on March 15, 2010