Well, even Warren Buffett had to start somewhere...
January 30, 2010 6:46 AM

How do I go about investing $10k conservatively, yet with decent yields?

So I have about $10k in ready cash that is sitting around collecting dust, and I'd like to invest it prudently.

My financial shape, as of now, is pretty good, I think.
- I have no debt and minimal expenses
- I don't own a credit card, only a debit card, which as far as possible I try to use, rather than cash
- Half of the money I have available is in an account that bears 2.5% interest every year, though I can easily cash out on it
- I put aside about $700 a month

Ideally, I'd like a conservative investment with medium returns, though I know the adage that low risk equals low returns. I foresee needing the bulk of the money in about 2 years' time, because of college expenses, so the investments I make will have to be liquid, though I intend of continue investing throughout college.

How can I best invest this money, and where do I learn more about investing?

/Caveats: I'm not in the US, and I'm a total dummy at investing, though I'm very willing to learn.
posted by titantoppler to Work & Money (16 answers total) 15 users marked this as a favorite
Caveats: I'm not in the US

Where are you? 2.5% would be great in many English speaking countries.
posted by I_pity_the_fool at 7:00 AM on January 30, 2010


A couple of things:

(1) A debit card is cash. It's not currency. That distinction is important. The point you're trying to make, that you use cash in favor of debt, is important.

(2) You are correct to note that low risk equals low return. What you need to figure out is what your acceptable tradeoff between risk and return is. If you want to earn, say 5% per year on your investments, you'd need to take on significantly more risk than you are taking on now.

(3) In order for anyone to give you any better advice than this we really would need to know where you're located because local laws, the size of your local market, your potential exposure to various risks (among them: interest rate, exchange rate, sovereign debt default, and sundry others) changes, the liquidity of various investments, and so on all change from country to country.
posted by dfriedman at 7:18 AM on January 30, 2010


FWIW, I live in Singapore, which is quite safe as sovereign debt default and political situations go.

If it makes a difference, I have a strong dislike towards debt, and would like to avoid it altogether, though I'm open to suggestions.

This 2.5% return on half of the money is a personal loan, and though the return is pretty good, I can't help but think that I could probably do better with it, though I don't know how, hence the question...
posted by titantoppler at 7:41 AM on January 30, 2010


Ray DeVoe: "More money has been lost reaching for yield than at the point of a gun."

How can I best invest this money, and where do I learn more about investing?

A good illustration of the tradeoff between risk and return is the investment pyramid. Cash and fixed-income investments are at the bottom, speculative investments like options and junk bonds are at the top.

Since you'll need the money in just a couple of years, you probably want to stick with the lower levels of the pyramid. (The problem with investing in equities is that they go up and down; the risk is that they'll be down when you have to sell them.) It looks like the rate of return you would get on a two-year Fixed Deposit at DBS Singapore is only 0.7%! So 2.5% sounds pretty good.

If you want to learn more about investing, I'd recommend Andrew Tobias's The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need.
posted by russilwvong at 7:56 AM on January 30, 2010


I'd like a conservative investment with medium returns, though I know the adage that low risk equals low returns.

I take it from the fact that you are already earning 2.5% that you consider that "low," and that by "medium" you mean something like 4-5%. This will be quite difficult. All of the traditionally "conservative" investments - savings accounts, CDs, government bonds, etc. - that I know of earn no more than 2.5%.

One idea is to find a blue-chip stock with a nice dividend yield (for example, BP has a 5.8% yield right now). Of course, there are two very big caveats with this strategy: (1) There is no guarantee that past dividends will predict future dividends; a lot of companies previously considered dependable have slashed their dividends recently. (2) The value of the stock can go down, and since you know you will have to sell in about 2 years, there's a real risk that you could lose money.

Realistically, you probably aren't going to find anything 'conservative' offering a ~5% yield - if it existed, millions of people would already have invested in it.

As for learning, one place to start is Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street.

On preview: A personal loan is actually a highly risky investment, since the debtor could default and you could lose your principal. So you're already taking quite a bit of risk with your investment.
posted by googly at 8:18 AM on January 30, 2010


Start a business, or help someone else start a business.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:32 AM on January 30, 2010


To expand on my last comment: Keep in mind that what counts as a "decent" yield is variable over time. When interest rates are high, a 4% yield may be quite average. When they are very low - as they are now - a 4% yield is very good, and you will have to take on more risk to get a yield that might be considered decent at other times.

The 2.5% that you are getting on the personal loan is 60% higher than the return on a 2-year CD at ING. This reflects the fact that a personal loan is riskier than a CD, which protects your principal. If you want to get an even better return, you'll have to move higher up the investment pyramid that russilwvong linked to.
posted by googly at 8:33 AM on January 30, 2010


"Start a business, or help someone else start a business"

this is not a conservative investment.
posted by dfriedman at 8:44 AM on January 30, 2010


Why not divide it intro two or three diffrent investments.
Say 60 % stay in your account. 20 % percent goes into a medium term bond fund that haven't been to volatile historically and 20% is put into an index fund. That way you have some upside but are also reasonbly likely to get all your money back after two years.
posted by ilike at 9:02 AM on January 30, 2010


"Start a business, or help someone else start a business"

this is not a conservative investment.


My word - seconding the second statement.
posted by Conrad Cornelius o'Donald o'Dell at 10:40 AM on January 30, 2010


If you need some advice, the folks over at Bogleheads can give you advice on investing. They are disciples of Jack Bogle so they do have a specific investment philosophy in mind which may or may not mesh with yours. Generally they recommend Bogle's Vanguard funds because that fund family generally do not eat you up in fees, although there are a few that can be just as pricey as other fund families. I recently bought into a Vanguard fund because the low fees and management philosophy. Only time will tell if I made the right decision, but as someone who frets over every penny, I feel comfortable with my decision.

Now that I reread your question, the fact you will need the money in two years significantly shortens your list of options.

As someone who has been in your shoes in the last year, take your time. Do not get in a rush to invest. Do not let an investment professional rush you into an investment out of the fear that you will miss out on gains. Do your research. Read the Personal Finance section of the Wall Street Journal for free online. Columnists Brent Arends and Jason Zweig both offer interesting perspectives. Go to your local library and read up on investing and personal finance.

On a side note, Warren Buffett makes investing look simple. I recently read Snowball and came away fascinated by the way his mind works. As a kid he used to write down license plate numbers with his best friend and calculate the most common frequencies of numbers. It's a good read, even for a layman like myself. You can read his shareholder letters for free if you're interested in learning more about his investment philosophy.

The Amateur Asset Allocator blog may also be of use.

In sum, I am not an investment professional. All investments come with some measure of risk. Good luck.
posted by Coyote at the Dog Show at 10:47 AM on January 30, 2010


If you need the money in two years, you really can't take any risk in hope of higher return. You should find the highest interest rate bank deposit you can find that carries Singapore Deposit Insurance Corporation coverage (SDIC). About all you can expect is to maybe keep up with the rate of inflation. The deposit should be held in the currency you expect to be spending in two years. You don't want to take the risk of the exchange rate going against you when you need to spend it.
posted by JackFlash at 1:04 PM on January 30, 2010


You have a short time range, conservative outlook, and admit you don't know very much about investing. In general the only way to get higher returns is to invest in riskier assets. If investment A had the same but less risk then investment B, why would anyone invest in B? Investors will keep shifting their investments from B to A until either the expected returns from A and B adequately match their respective riskiness. In general*, the markets will push everything towards having the same risk-adjusted level of returns.

During different periods of time the overall world of investors may put more or less of a premium on risk. (E.g. In one year, to reduce volatility by 5% you'd have to sacrifice 1% in returns, now to get the same reduction in volatility you'd have to lose out on 2% in returns). Right now, it is my opinion that people are more risk adverse than average. Look at the returns on U.S. government bonds (a very very safe investment) they are remarkably close to 0. This means that people are willing to give up more potential returns in order to have more safety (i.e. investing more conservatively). Because of this I think it is a better than average time to invest in higher-return/riskier assets, but this course isn't available to everyone, if they need to security of lower risk e.g. all the baby boomers who are thinking about retiring in the next 5 years.

That said I think it will be hard to beat 2.5% returns in anything that is super safe. (Take into account though the currency that your loan is in, because you are losing out on whatever the inflation for that currency is. e.g. if it is a loan in SGD and Singapore has more inflation than the US over the period of your investment, or if the currency falls relative to the dollar, you might have been better off with a US dollar backed investment)

It all depends on how much risk you are willing to take. But my suggestion would be to ask yourself how much of the 10k you are willing to lose without it being a disaster. I would take roughly 50% more than that much and invest in a moderately aggressive selection of no load, low fee** mutual funds (maybe 50% of this in bonds and 50% in equities (stocks)). I say twice as much, since it would be quite unlikely for a fund to lose more than 2/3 of its money (but that did happen in '07 to some people). Unless you are 100% sure you will get your 2.5% investment back I would count that as investment grade and count it towards your "willing to lose money". All of this can be done pretty easily at a discount broker like Schwab.

The remain amount should go in something with no risk of losing your capital. My suggestion would be too look for a 2 year CD with the highest interest you can find. You might decide you'd prefer government bonds. Either way I'd suggest making this investment based in the currency you expect to need to spend the money on, so you dont have to worry about swings in exchange rates.


*People argue about the degree to which this is true, but unless you think you are much more knowledgeable than all the large institutional investors out there who have teams of people researching every investment and tracking everything about it, I think it is safer to assume that in general everything should have about the same expected risk adjusted returns. For the same reason I think you are better off in a diversified investment like a low fee mutual fund, rather than paying for some one to try to pick your stocks/bonds for you.

**No load means you don't pay a fee to buy or sell the mutual fund, which is important for smallish investments. Low fee (<0.3%) means you are not having as much taken away form your earnings.
posted by vegetableagony at 3:21 PM on January 30, 2010


Pretty much all the advice so far is on target...except "starting a business." That's vague populist unresearched nonsense for a majority of all people.

I have devoured many of the top recommended books on personal finance and investing over the last 10 years or so, from the mundane (Graham and Dodd) to the sensationalist (Kiosaki) and am reading up on finance all the time as a bit of a hobby. That being said - Malkiel is great, Bogle is great, but having read 30 or so finance books of varying quality I would say that the first one you should read (and the only one besides Common Sense on Mutual Funds I have kept) is:

The Four Pillars of Investing by William Bernstein.

If you are more interested in the mechanics of asset allocation, his other book
The Intelligent Asset Allocator, is also very good.

For creating your portfolios look to MarketWatches
"Lazy Portfolio" series to actually see just WHICH funds people like David Swensen, Ted Aronson and William Bernstein would invest in with Vanguard funds. This is an overlooked and fantastic resource on the web. I would personally pay for the "Lazy Portfolio" series of articles put up by MarketWatch. Wonderful stuff that really helped me pick the actual components of my own portfolio.

I also second the recommendation of the
BogleHead forums to really round out your portfolio knowledge.

In my opinion those three resources are all you need to be a competent investor short of being a professional money manager.

As far as getting a return on your money above 2.5 percent and still being conservative...you're out of luck as far as high interest savings accounts and CDs are concerned. A 2 year CD would likely have a return lower than that. Investing would be the way to go in terms of securing the possibility of a higher return, but the tactics you'd have to use in a 2 year turnaround to generate a potential return of more than 2.5 percent would be more risk than most people should take. Look LONG TERM as far as generating an above average return. Slow and steady my friend.

Also...you should have a credit card and pay off the balance every month to develop a good credit history. Its great that you already know to only spend what you are able to cover with cash, so use the credit card simply as a tool to build a credit history in case you want to buy a car / house / etc. Its easy enough to make small purchases on a credit card every month and simply set it up so that your balance autopays in full.

Good luck!

posted by jnnla at 5:46 PM on January 30, 2010


I'm in Singapore as well... and the problem is, there's not a lot in the way of conservative investments over here.

After all, we're talking about one of only two countries in the world that allowed retail investors to buy CDOs over the counter - and holy hell did that end badly.

For a two year time horizon (I think the rule of thumb is anything under three years) you're probably best to keep it in the bank in a term deposit.

If you'd like to look at bonds, you've got two options. You can buy Singapore government bonds (if you've got a DBS or UOB account, I think you can buy them at an ATM), but the yields are pretty average: the 2yr SGS yields about 0.8% at the moment.

Another option is Singapore's one and only bond index fund, the ABF Singapore Bond ETF. It's not bad as far as bond funds go - invested in a diversified basket of SGD-denominated bonds, so there's no currency risk and not much issuer risk, and the fees are low at 0.2% p.a. The yield at the moment is about 2.3%, and there's a risk of losing some of your capital if interest rates go up - but it'll be much less volatile than stocks.

If that sounds worthwhile, line yourself up with a cheap online brokerage account from any of the big banks and look for stock code A35.

--

Stocks are not ideal, given your time horizon. Singaporean blue-chip stocks tend to have high dividend yields (Starhub, the sucktacular local cable monopolist, yields 10%), but could be up 20% or down 20% by the time you need to take your money out. (And the S-chips - Chinese stocks listed in Singapore, of which there are an alarmingly large number - are TOXIC WASTE.)

And for chrissakes stay away from the insurance companies that seem to pervade everything here. They're only interested in gouging you.

MeMail me if you've got any more questions about personal finance over here. It's a minefield... and the MAS's light-touch caveat-emptor go-suck-a-lemon approach to regulation really doesn't help.
posted by The Shiny Thing at 10:11 PM on January 30, 2010


This probably doesn't apply to Singapore, but just for everyone saying low-risk, medium/high-return investments for this amount of money don't exist, I would point you to Reward Checking accounts.

There are a bunch that offer around 4%, generally on amounts up to $25k or so, assuming you're willing to go through hoops like direct deposit and online bill-pay. But for an FDIC-insured 4%, I think that's a pretty nice price to pay.

Granted if you're looking to invest much more than $25k, it's not really feasible.
posted by jckll at 11:34 AM on February 1, 2010


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