What impact is Hurricane Hillary likely to have in Ventura County?
August 19, 2023 12:16 PM Subscribe
What sort of impact is Hurricane Hillary likely to have on Newbury Park, California? What sort of preparation should someone do who lives there?
A small thing you can do is check neighborhood road drains to ensure they are free of debris ahead of time like leaves and small branches and such. In a place where it rains often people have a sense of where things flood and get backed up then just tend to it on their own ( my grandmother took responsibility for her corner intersection and cleaned the drains regularly all year in louisana for example). Cities should check on this but ymmv. It's a tiny thing but a working drain is important in these situations. Do this when it is dry and not raining, it's much more dangerous to do once the rain has started.
Impacts can vary dramatically because of terrain. So your specific situation is going to be based on where your house/appartment is located, and how water travels. Sometimes one side of the street can be just a little higher than the other and it's enough of a difference that one side floods and the other doesn't.
posted by AlexiaSky at 2:15 PM on August 19, 2023 [10 favorites]
Impacts can vary dramatically because of terrain. So your specific situation is going to be based on where your house/appartment is located, and how water travels. Sometimes one side of the street can be just a little higher than the other and it's enough of a difference that one side floods and the other doesn't.
posted by AlexiaSky at 2:15 PM on August 19, 2023 [10 favorites]
I know it was alluded to above, but mnemonics sometimes can sink deeper into our psyches than full sentences: Turn Around Don't Drown!
I remember back in the late 70's I was driving home from my job on the road I always used, and there was a somewhat elevated railroad line I passed along the way. One day I was driving home in a heavy rain storm and as I crossed the railroad tracks I saw below me a bunch of cars pointing every which way, like a child might leave their toy cars on the floor. I realized they were floating so I turned around!!!
I have also had people honking at me because I did not continue into an underpass which appeared to be flooded. I took the honking to mean "go ahead, we need to see if your car sinks so we can decide what to do."
posted by forthright at 2:36 PM on August 19, 2023 [7 favorites]
I remember back in the late 70's I was driving home from my job on the road I always used, and there was a somewhat elevated railroad line I passed along the way. One day I was driving home in a heavy rain storm and as I crossed the railroad tracks I saw below me a bunch of cars pointing every which way, like a child might leave their toy cars on the floor. I realized they were floating so I turned around!!!
I have also had people honking at me because I did not continue into an underpass which appeared to be flooded. I took the honking to mean "go ahead, we need to see if your car sinks so we can decide what to do."
posted by forthright at 2:36 PM on August 19, 2023 [7 favorites]
Nth'ing don't drive into water, and expect to potentially lose electricity/water. Charge all your devices, including any power banks, if you have them. Fill pitchers/jugs/etc with water now, and if there's room, throw some in your freezer now...IF you lose power, having less air/more frozen stuff in there will keep everything else cold. If you do end up losing power, open your fridge/freezer as little as possible. Low-key make sure you know where flashlights/lanterns are. Make sure you have some sort of non-electric entertainment such as books/deck of cards/board games. Losing power for more than a few hours is boring!
posted by csox at 3:18 PM on August 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by csox at 3:18 PM on August 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
Here is a weather report prepared by professionals employed by the US Government, for Newbury Park, CA. In my opinion, it will give you the best prediction of what to expect, and makes suggestions about how to prepare for those conditions.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=34.1888&lon=-118.9403
Read the 3 links in the red zone at the top of the page, under "Hazardous Weather Conditions".
posted by the Real Dan at 3:18 PM on August 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=34.1888&lon=-118.9403
Read the 3 links in the red zone at the top of the page, under "Hazardous Weather Conditions".
posted by the Real Dan at 3:18 PM on August 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
VENTURA COUNTY NOAA Here is the link for the National Weather Service. They have reliable information and a good detail under forecast discussion. You can customize to your zip code and they update every three hours. Current thoughts are that the storm will get less intense as it encounters the colder California coast ocean and get bumped by the elbow that is San Diego, and both of those effects will cause it to lose momentum. If you live in a burn area, there is some worry about flash flooding in denuded areas such as San Bernardino. There should be a map of your local area you can look at for updates on the NOAA site. You can see animations of wind and rain events moving over your zip code area. Most of the heavy rains are projected for Sunday morning. I hope this is helpful.
posted by effluvia at 3:25 PM on August 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by effluvia at 3:25 PM on August 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
The Eyewall blog, which normally tracks Atlantic hurricane forecasts, has also been posting updates about Hilary this week.
It looks like the impact on coastal areas like Ventura County will be similar to a very bad winter storm: Strong wind gusts and very heavy rains, and the usual risks that come with those (flooding, power outages, blocked roads, landslides). Places right on the coast are at the highest risk for storm-force winds.
The very worst flooding risk is mostly east of the mountains, in the desert. Definitely don’t plan on driving out in the direction of Palm Springs, Death Valley, Nevada, or Arizona in the next few days.
posted by mbrubeck at 3:27 PM on August 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
It looks like the impact on coastal areas like Ventura County will be similar to a very bad winter storm: Strong wind gusts and very heavy rains, and the usual risks that come with those (flooding, power outages, blocked roads, landslides). Places right on the coast are at the highest risk for storm-force winds.
The very worst flooding risk is mostly east of the mountains, in the desert. Definitely don’t plan on driving out in the direction of Palm Springs, Death Valley, Nevada, or Arizona in the next few days.
posted by mbrubeck at 3:27 PM on August 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
I grew up in a house that lost power often, sometimes for a while.
This is from a general perspective, not necessarily hurricanes, and is definitely focused on your second question of preparation instead of potential impacts.
Do you have a physical phone book?
Before the internet goes down (which sometimes happens), make sure you know how to call:
- electric company
- gas company
- water company
- similar utilities that might be unique to you - street department?
Charge all devices. Shower, wash hair, wash clothes, wash towels, wash sheets, wash dishes, etc. Fill up the bathtub if you have one for flushing toilets if the water goes out. Do everything that needs water or electricity. (Thanks, Caribbean roommate who taught me these things in undergrad!)
Fill up the car now if you can. Get cash now if you can. (Seriously, my dad's motto for coming storms was "gas and cash". The cash might not be as useful as it used to be, but I still get it.) But if it's not safe to leave your home when you read this, don't.
Do you know where a flashlight is? Candles are less good. Do you have batteries for the flashlight?
Do you know where your important documents are? I'd make sure those are sealed against water.
Do you have a battery-operated fan or a piece of cardboard you can use for a manual fan?
If you can get to the store, buy water, other beverages that don't need to be refrigerated, and shelf-stable single-serving items that you like to eat. Think the ritz cheese and cracker sandwiches, granola bars, cereal, stuff that doesn't need to be cooked. Spaghetti-os are surprisingly nostalgic for me heated up on a grill and eaten out of a camp pot. Also: flashlights and batteries for those flashlights.
Some places, if the power goes out, the water goes out, and when the water comes back on, it is not safe to drink for 24 hours because of loss of pressure and needed testing. Do you have a way to get safe water to drink? We have a steripen and a sawyer squeeze for camping and have used them a number of times at home when we had water problems (the water treatment plant went out when it was struck by lightning, water mains broke, maintenance, Wednesday, who knows). Alternatively, fill up all the mugs/glasses/jugs/everything you've got with potable water now. The bathtub can be non-potable water.
Random (because this pointed out a hole in my preparations once): if you only have whole bean coffee and only have an electric grinder, grind it now. It won't be as delicious as freshly-ground, but it will be a heck of a lot more delicious than whole coffee beans you can't grind and turn into coffee.
When we know a storm is coming, I plan to use all the open stuff in the fridge - so, open containers of lunch meat, eggs, open milk, stuff like that. My plan when the power goes out is: we eat leftovers from the fridge until that's not safe (CDC food safety guidelines), then we eat from the freezer until that's not safe, then we move on to the pantry stuff like pasta, peanut butter sandwiches, etc. If you can fill the freezer now with water jugs (or tupperware like I do), do that - frozen freezers take longer to thaw. If you have one, find a cooler and use that to reduce the number of times you open your fridge/freezer - food will stay good longer. Tape the fridge closed to remind you.
If you don't have a way to cook without power, that's ok. You probably still have things like dry cereal, or peanut butter sandwiches, or fruit, or snacks. You can eat these things; might not be your typical meals, but you'll be fed. One thing that I know a lot of people get for hurricanes is pop tarts for breakfast. Maybe not your usual breakfast, but that's ok.
If you have paper plates, you might want to consider using them instead of dishes you have to wash if the water/power goes out.
Find a book or a deck of cards or a journal or some knitting.
(Sometimes I feel a little crazy with all this thinking, but I hope at least one of my crazy thoughts helps you or somebody else who reads this feel a little more prepared and like they've got this, because they do.)
And to reiterate:
Do not drive into water.
DO NOT DRIVE INTO WATER.
posted by Ms Vegetable at 4:46 PM on August 19, 2023 [20 favorites]
This is from a general perspective, not necessarily hurricanes, and is definitely focused on your second question of preparation instead of potential impacts.
Do you have a physical phone book?
Before the internet goes down (which sometimes happens), make sure you know how to call:
- electric company
- gas company
- water company
- similar utilities that might be unique to you - street department?
Charge all devices. Shower, wash hair, wash clothes, wash towels, wash sheets, wash dishes, etc. Fill up the bathtub if you have one for flushing toilets if the water goes out. Do everything that needs water or electricity. (Thanks, Caribbean roommate who taught me these things in undergrad!)
Fill up the car now if you can. Get cash now if you can. (Seriously, my dad's motto for coming storms was "gas and cash". The cash might not be as useful as it used to be, but I still get it.) But if it's not safe to leave your home when you read this, don't.
Do you know where a flashlight is? Candles are less good. Do you have batteries for the flashlight?
Do you know where your important documents are? I'd make sure those are sealed against water.
Do you have a battery-operated fan or a piece of cardboard you can use for a manual fan?
If you can get to the store, buy water, other beverages that don't need to be refrigerated, and shelf-stable single-serving items that you like to eat. Think the ritz cheese and cracker sandwiches, granola bars, cereal, stuff that doesn't need to be cooked. Spaghetti-os are surprisingly nostalgic for me heated up on a grill and eaten out of a camp pot. Also: flashlights and batteries for those flashlights.
Some places, if the power goes out, the water goes out, and when the water comes back on, it is not safe to drink for 24 hours because of loss of pressure and needed testing. Do you have a way to get safe water to drink? We have a steripen and a sawyer squeeze for camping and have used them a number of times at home when we had water problems (the water treatment plant went out when it was struck by lightning, water mains broke, maintenance, Wednesday, who knows). Alternatively, fill up all the mugs/glasses/jugs/everything you've got with potable water now. The bathtub can be non-potable water.
Random (because this pointed out a hole in my preparations once): if you only have whole bean coffee and only have an electric grinder, grind it now. It won't be as delicious as freshly-ground, but it will be a heck of a lot more delicious than whole coffee beans you can't grind and turn into coffee.
When we know a storm is coming, I plan to use all the open stuff in the fridge - so, open containers of lunch meat, eggs, open milk, stuff like that. My plan when the power goes out is: we eat leftovers from the fridge until that's not safe (CDC food safety guidelines), then we eat from the freezer until that's not safe, then we move on to the pantry stuff like pasta, peanut butter sandwiches, etc. If you can fill the freezer now with water jugs (or tupperware like I do), do that - frozen freezers take longer to thaw. If you have one, find a cooler and use that to reduce the number of times you open your fridge/freezer - food will stay good longer. Tape the fridge closed to remind you.
If you don't have a way to cook without power, that's ok. You probably still have things like dry cereal, or peanut butter sandwiches, or fruit, or snacks. You can eat these things; might not be your typical meals, but you'll be fed. One thing that I know a lot of people get for hurricanes is pop tarts for breakfast. Maybe not your usual breakfast, but that's ok.
If you have paper plates, you might want to consider using them instead of dishes you have to wash if the water/power goes out.
Find a book or a deck of cards or a journal or some knitting.
(Sometimes I feel a little crazy with all this thinking, but I hope at least one of my crazy thoughts helps you or somebody else who reads this feel a little more prepared and like they've got this, because they do.)
And to reiterate:
Do not drive into water.
DO NOT DRIVE INTO WATER.
posted by Ms Vegetable at 4:46 PM on August 19, 2023 [20 favorites]
Get batteries, get food that you don't need to cook, get flashlights, get ice, fill the tub with water (to flush the toilet), get bottled water, charge your devices, stay away from windows, get cash, get gas. Plan to chill (if it is safe to do so) without water, power or internet until it passes.
posted by Toddles at 5:43 PM on August 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Toddles at 5:43 PM on August 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
I've made it through several hurricanes in Florida and Georgia. In addition to everything mentioned above buy some headlamps. They're better than flashlights because your hands are free.
posted by mareli at 5:48 PM on August 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by mareli at 5:48 PM on August 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
If you have a camp stove, check on your fuel supply. Also, get charcoal if you may have to rely on a hibachi or BBQ grilll.
posted by SemiSalt at 7:19 PM on August 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by SemiSalt at 7:19 PM on August 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
Gift link, WaPo article
Red Cross
If you have camping supplies, locate them. super handy.
Turn the fridge and freezer to high settings so food stays cold longer in an outage.
Disasters happen. Locate important papers, photograph and store online.
Prepare a bag with supplies for a few days, just in case of evacuation.
Charge devices, fill the car with gas. 2nding LED headlamp and batteries, Download a radio app or find a radio; weather radio news can be great.
Boredom supplies. Deck of cards, magazines, books, radio, etc.
You have limited time to get supplies for this event, but use it as practice for future disasters. I have a solar/ crank/ battery radio with a flashlight, and a power bank for the phone, plus a small Go bag(that needs fresh peanut butter crackers, etc). Prep for pets, too.
Come back and update, best luck.
posted by theora55 at 7:30 PM on August 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Red Cross
If you have camping supplies, locate them. super handy.
Turn the fridge and freezer to high settings so food stays cold longer in an outage.
Disasters happen. Locate important papers, photograph and store online.
Prepare a bag with supplies for a few days, just in case of evacuation.
Charge devices, fill the car with gas. 2nding LED headlamp and batteries, Download a radio app or find a radio; weather radio news can be great.
Boredom supplies. Deck of cards, magazines, books, radio, etc.
You have limited time to get supplies for this event, but use it as practice for future disasters. I have a solar/ crank/ battery radio with a flashlight, and a power bank for the phone, plus a small Go bag(that needs fresh peanut butter crackers, etc). Prep for pets, too.
Come back and update, best luck.
posted by theora55 at 7:30 PM on August 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'm in glendale right now...my father's memorial brunch in 91607 was scheduled for tomorrow and so far hasn't been canceled.
It looks like the main things we should be concerned about are heavy rain and high winds: secure anything that might cause damage if blown away.
posted by brujita at 7:37 PM on August 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
It looks like the main things we should be concerned about are heavy rain and high winds: secure anything that might cause damage if blown away.
posted by brujita at 7:37 PM on August 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
The advice above for what to do if you find yourself in the path of a hurricane is worth reading, but it's worth reading as generic disaster preparedness advice because you live in earthquake country. It is not something you need to do tonight for Hilary, as a resident of Ventura County.
What you need to do is: bring your garden furniture inside and stay off the roads tomorrow if possible, as you would for a rainy day in winter.
The NWS forecast for Thousand Oaks (near Newbury Park) is for a couple of inches of rain and some gusty wind on Sunday. This is a huge amount of rain for August, but rain and wind like this is not unusual in the winter. It was a very wet winter, so tomorrow may not even be the wettest day of 2023.
posted by caek at 8:57 PM on August 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
What you need to do is: bring your garden furniture inside and stay off the roads tomorrow if possible, as you would for a rainy day in winter.
The NWS forecast for Thousand Oaks (near Newbury Park) is for a couple of inches of rain and some gusty wind on Sunday. This is a huge amount of rain for August, but rain and wind like this is not unusual in the winter. It was a very wet winter, so tomorrow may not even be the wettest day of 2023.
posted by caek at 8:57 PM on August 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
If you like Indian food, it's worth it to check your local grocery store or Costco for some ready-to-eat packets of Indian food. Tasty Bite is a popular brand; some others are MTR and Gits. These food packets come in many different varities, are vegetarian, are inexpensive, and are shelf stable for up to a year. These complanies don't just sell entrees, they sell packets of ready to eat rice as well.
Trader Joe's even have their own versions now.
They say to microwave the packets before eating. It's not mandatory, though; they taste just fine at room temperature. If you don't have power to make rice, they'll taste just fine with bread or tortillas. I've been eating them for years, and I find them delicious. If power is out, they'll make a good change of pace from the usual storm provisions.
posted by spinifex23 at 12:09 AM on August 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Trader Joe's even have their own versions now.
They say to microwave the packets before eating. It's not mandatory, though; they taste just fine at room temperature. If you don't have power to make rice, they'll taste just fine with bread or tortillas. I've been eating them for years, and I find them delicious. If power is out, they'll make a good change of pace from the usual storm provisions.
posted by spinifex23 at 12:09 AM on August 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
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The National Hurricane Center is a good place for updates. A few basic points:
-The main danger is from water, not wind. So, I would focus on the infographics for flash floods. Seems like you're either in the yellow or red (slight or moderate risk), which isn't too bad, but still something to take seriously.
-Do not drive into water. Even a few inches of fast moving water can carry away a car. In places not used to this much rain, streams can quickly turn into rivers.
-Expect to lose power and water. Stock up on shelf stable food, batteries, candles/flashlights, and potable water. Fill up buckets of regular water to use to flush a toilet if needed. Fill up your car with gas now. And if you can, a battery-powered fan may come in handy. Charge up all electronics and phones when you can.
-If you're in a low-lying elevation, it can't hurt to get some sandbags and put them around your doors.
-Parking your car at a slightly higher elevation can potentially be the difference between having a car and not having one. Hopefully they've made it legal to park on medium strips where you are, but if not, try to park somewhere at least slightly raised (but not on a hill that's likely to turn into a river).
-The cone of uncertainty is often misread - what it shows is where the eye of the storm might go. It does *not* represent where the extent of damage may occur. Depending on where the eye of the storm goes could determine if you're on the wet or dry side of the storm.
posted by coffeecat at 12:43 PM on August 19, 2023 [20 favorites]