Danger of delta variant to unvaccinated loved one?
June 17, 2021 6:08 AM Subscribe
I have a loved one who is vaccine hesitant. They had COVID in March 2020 and believe they have enough natural immunity to be protected, and having read anti-vax literature don't think it's worth the risk to become vaccinated. I'd like to know their risks with the new Delta variant.
My loved one is in their mid-50s and in good health -- no long-haul symptoms from COVID-19 last year -- had fever and classic symptoms but no need for hospitalization. They tend toward conspiratorial thinking, especially suspicious of the government and big business, and have anti-vax friends and reads anti-vax sources. They also have a ton of loved ones and close friends who are vaccinated (like me!). I have fought with them over the safety of the vaccine and have failed to convince them it's safe enough (or safer) for them to get it. Now that my area has reached 70% vaccination, everything is opening up, and I fear their exposure. I know there is a lot of information about COVID-19 spreading among unvaccinated populations, especially with the Delta variant, which now accounts for 10% of my region's COVID-positive results. I'm wondering if there are sources that address the risks to people who have natural immunity? Is it more likely for them to be reinfected with the Delta variant? Anecdotal reports are welcome too.
My loved one is in their mid-50s and in good health -- no long-haul symptoms from COVID-19 last year -- had fever and classic symptoms but no need for hospitalization. They tend toward conspiratorial thinking, especially suspicious of the government and big business, and have anti-vax friends and reads anti-vax sources. They also have a ton of loved ones and close friends who are vaccinated (like me!). I have fought with them over the safety of the vaccine and have failed to convince them it's safe enough (or safer) for them to get it. Now that my area has reached 70% vaccination, everything is opening up, and I fear their exposure. I know there is a lot of information about COVID-19 spreading among unvaccinated populations, especially with the Delta variant, which now accounts for 10% of my region's COVID-positive results. I'm wondering if there are sources that address the risks to people who have natural immunity? Is it more likely for them to be reinfected with the Delta variant? Anecdotal reports are welcome too.
From today's news: Previous Covid infection may not offer long-term protection, study finds
Previous infection with coronavirus does not necessarily protect against Covid in the longer term, especially when caused by new variants of concern, a study on healthcare workers suggests.
Researchers at Oxford University found marked differences in the immune responses of medical staff who contracted Covid, with some appearing far better equipped than others to combat the disease six months later.
Scientists on the study, conducted with the UK Coronavirus Immunology Consortium, said the findings reinforced the importance of everyone getting vaccinated regardless of whether they had been infected with the virus earlier in the pandemic.
“If you look at the trajectory of the immune response after infection, mostly it is still detectable six months later, but it’s highly variable between people,” said Eleanor Barnes, a professor of hepatology and experimental medicine at Oxford and a senior author on the study.
“That is quite different to vaccination. If you vaccinate you get a really robust response, but with natural infection there’s much more diversity in responses.”
The researchers analysed blood samples from 78 healthcare workers who had Covid, with or without symptoms, between April and June last year. The blood was checked monthly for up to six months post-infection for a range of immune responses. These included different types of antibody that target the virus, B cells that make antibodies and retain a memory of the disease, and T cells, which reduce the severity of disease by killing off infected cells.
posted by EXISTENZ IS PAUSED at 6:56 AM on June 17, 2021 [13 favorites]
Previous infection with coronavirus does not necessarily protect against Covid in the longer term, especially when caused by new variants of concern, a study on healthcare workers suggests.
Researchers at Oxford University found marked differences in the immune responses of medical staff who contracted Covid, with some appearing far better equipped than others to combat the disease six months later.
Scientists on the study, conducted with the UK Coronavirus Immunology Consortium, said the findings reinforced the importance of everyone getting vaccinated regardless of whether they had been infected with the virus earlier in the pandemic.
“If you look at the trajectory of the immune response after infection, mostly it is still detectable six months later, but it’s highly variable between people,” said Eleanor Barnes, a professor of hepatology and experimental medicine at Oxford and a senior author on the study.
“That is quite different to vaccination. If you vaccinate you get a really robust response, but with natural infection there’s much more diversity in responses.”
The researchers analysed blood samples from 78 healthcare workers who had Covid, with or without symptoms, between April and June last year. The blood was checked monthly for up to six months post-infection for a range of immune responses. These included different types of antibody that target the virus, B cells that make antibodies and retain a memory of the disease, and T cells, which reduce the severity of disease by killing off infected cells.
posted by EXISTENZ IS PAUSED at 6:56 AM on June 17, 2021 [13 favorites]
I was going to share the same Guardian story. The key takeaway is that while natural immunity following symptomatic infection lasts for at least 6 months for many people, there's significant variation in how effective it is. They will probably be fine but it would be safer for your relative to be vaccinated.
However, if they are merely hesitant and not anti-vax in general, you might be better off saving your energy and persuasion for flu and covid booster vaccinations when and if they are advised. They might be more amenable to this.
posted by plonkee at 7:01 AM on June 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
However, if they are merely hesitant and not anti-vax in general, you might be better off saving your energy and persuasion for flu and covid booster vaccinations when and if they are advised. They might be more amenable to this.
posted by plonkee at 7:01 AM on June 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
Have you heard of Motivational Interviewing? (There should be some free trainings available online). Facts aren’t necessarily going to sway this person but you do have the wonderful opportunity to have a real conversation with them about their fears and reasons for not getting vaccinated. Motivational interviewing allows a conversation addressing that specific persons concern (perhaps how they’ll be viewed for being vaccinated in an anti vaccine community, that accepting the risk of COVID is great changes the morality of previous actions, etc)
I’m also a fan of countering with a more dramatic conspiracy theory (etc, if the government was trying to do something to us all, why wouldn’t they do something covert like putting it in the water supply rather than telling everyone to come in)
posted by raccoon409 at 7:17 AM on June 17, 2021 [6 favorites]
I’m also a fan of countering with a more dramatic conspiracy theory (etc, if the government was trying to do something to us all, why wouldn’t they do something covert like putting it in the water supply rather than telling everyone to come in)
posted by raccoon409 at 7:17 AM on June 17, 2021 [6 favorites]
Response by poster: The friend had COVID in March of 2020, which was 15 months ago. Have any studies shown immunity lasting longer than 6 months?
posted by Anonymous at 7:20 AM on June 17, 2021 [6 favorites]
posted by Anonymous at 7:20 AM on June 17, 2021 [6 favorites]
Have any studies shown immunity lasting longer than 6 months
There's complicated reasons why that is difficult to do. However, I've seen (but I can't find) studies suggesting at least 8 months. I'm sure 24 months is possible, but like others said above, the primary variable at play is how much immunity they got in the first place, not how much it would wear off.
I've stopped mentally fighting those that don't want to get vaccinated. I know we aren't technically at herd immunity levels, but everyone is completely open and the virus rates are absolutely plummeting. No longer worth my brain cells when the covid contribution they are making is 200x less than 3 months ago!
posted by bbqturtle at 10:11 AM on June 17, 2021
There's complicated reasons why that is difficult to do. However, I've seen (but I can't find) studies suggesting at least 8 months. I'm sure 24 months is possible, but like others said above, the primary variable at play is how much immunity they got in the first place, not how much it would wear off.
I've stopped mentally fighting those that don't want to get vaccinated. I know we aren't technically at herd immunity levels, but everyone is completely open and the virus rates are absolutely plummeting. No longer worth my brain cells when the covid contribution they are making is 200x less than 3 months ago!
posted by bbqturtle at 10:11 AM on June 17, 2021
> the virus rates are absolutely plummeting
I don't know where the OP lives, but if they are based here in the UK that is absolutely not the case. Covid cases in England are now doubling every 11 days, probably due to the new Delta variant.
posted by EXISTENZ IS PAUSED at 10:25 AM on June 17, 2021 [8 favorites]
I don't know where the OP lives, but if they are based here in the UK that is absolutely not the case. Covid cases in England are now doubling every 11 days, probably due to the new Delta variant.
posted by EXISTENZ IS PAUSED at 10:25 AM on June 17, 2021 [8 favorites]
I don't know where the OP lives, but if they are based here in the UK that is absolutely not the caseIt's also not true in the US. Nationally, case rates plateaued about two weeks ago. This would be fine if they'd plateaued at the same rate per population as Israel, but they're 20x that, and large parts of the country are majority unvaccinated. It seems likely that what's happening in the UK (cases doubling every twoish weeks) will happen here soon.
So if the argument for not getting vaccinated is "I'm already immune" that's, well, that's not necessarily true, but sure. But if the argument is "case rates are low and falling" that's wrong now, and will likely be more wrong in a month. It takes weeks to reach full immunity. I would try to persuade them to get vaccinated now.
posted by caek at 11:43 AM on June 17, 2021 [5 favorites]
A friend of mine is a nurse who believes in science and who is pro-vaccine but who also has some more conservative beliefs. She and her whole family had Covid and she decided not to get them vaccinated. She shared this article recently, which argues that we should be pushing antibody testing rather than vaccination if folks think they might have had Covid, and it argues that evidence of a Covid infection (from a test, not just symptoms) should be considered equivalent to vaccination, and it also says a positive antibody test should be considered equivalent. It also links to some data and studies.
To answer your question about length of immunity: yes, some of the data cited show immunity longer than six months, up to ten months. (That data was from January or so they wouldn't have been able to show anything much longer.)
Could you convince your relative to get an antibody test? Do read that article I shared, which says that antibody tests are widely available, but some are better than others.
I'm very pro-vaccine, but I don't think you're going to find evidence that your relative is totally wrong (doesn't mean they're completely right, either, but recovery from Covid has been shown to give some protection for some time for some people, etc), so I wouldn't stay on that path. And we don't actually know with confidence, from what I've read, if the vaccines or antibodies from infection give more or less protection from variants.
posted by bluedaisy at 12:29 PM on June 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
To answer your question about length of immunity: yes, some of the data cited show immunity longer than six months, up to ten months. (That data was from January or so they wouldn't have been able to show anything much longer.)
Could you convince your relative to get an antibody test? Do read that article I shared, which says that antibody tests are widely available, but some are better than others.
I'm very pro-vaccine, but I don't think you're going to find evidence that your relative is totally wrong (doesn't mean they're completely right, either, but recovery from Covid has been shown to give some protection for some time for some people, etc), so I wouldn't stay on that path. And we don't actually know with confidence, from what I've read, if the vaccines or antibodies from infection give more or less protection from variants.
posted by bluedaisy at 12:29 PM on June 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
It’s an anecdata point of one, but I just had a formerly vaccine opposed (not just hesitant*) Uber driver explain why she ended up getting her two Pfizer shots: she caught COVID in March 2020, obvious case but mild enough no hospitalization. Assumed she was immune afterwards, but by November 2020 she caught it again and this time ended up in the ICU. Her husband and kids sat her down in an intervention and told her they were afraid she wouldn’t survive if she got it again and they couldn’t go through anything like that again. For this otherwise healthy person, at least, there was a definite expiration date to her immunity and she didn’t get off so lightly on round 2.
*not an anti-masker or a denialist, but someone wary of the vaccines due to the history of systemic racism embedded in American medical and public health systems
posted by blue suede stockings at 3:48 PM on June 17, 2021 [4 favorites]
*not an anti-masker or a denialist, but someone wary of the vaccines due to the history of systemic racism embedded in American medical and public health systems
posted by blue suede stockings at 3:48 PM on June 17, 2021 [4 favorites]
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“The data suggest that immunity in convalescent individuals will be very long lasting and that convalescent individuals who receive available mRNA vaccines will produce antibodies and memory B cells that should be protective against circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants,” the study authors wrote.
(I suspect we both heard the same piece with Dr. Fauci on NPR this morning)
posted by jquinby at 6:22 AM on June 17, 2021