Can you figure out the probability of a specific outcome?
September 11, 2016 11:30 AM Subscribe
I work in a field where we think about possibly dangerous people. If Mr. X is a poor driver and has a 5% chance of running a red light in the next month, can you know the probability of him running a red light at a specific intersection? Can you know a range of probabilities for that specific intersection? What if it's the intersection that he drives through most often? I think this likely has an easy answer but none of us can clearly explain it so we keep talking about it.