what's the risk of getting long covid while living with 6 others?
October 20, 2022 1:52 PM Subscribe
I'm considering living in a group house with 6 other people. I'm also pretty covid-cautious. We are all vaccinated and boosted and resuming normal social activities. Overall, what is my risk of getting long covid? (e.g. by order of magnitude — is getting long covid in this situation, within the next year, more or less likely than getting hit by a car in the next year?)
House is all healthy 20- and 30-somethings. We are in California. The house policy is "do what you feel comfortable with, communicate with other people if you get sick or exposed, mask + quarantine until you test negative." People have mostly resumed normal life (dining indoors, going to gyms, having guests over, house occasionally throws ~20 person events). People are masking on public transit, also usually when in contact with strangers, and not always at indoor events. People in the house have gotten Covid before but it hasn't spread to others in the house. There are monthly house meetings and weekly house dinners. I would have my own room but common spaces are shared.
I don't have other pre-existing risk factors. I don't have a large amount of exposure to people otherwise (I work remotely and live alone). My current policies are cautious enough that I believe I haven't gotten covid yet: I wear N95 in all crowded indoor spaces. I'm not scared of getting covid because I think it's going to become endemic, I just want the risk of getting long covid specifically to be as low as possible.
Can someone help me estimate my risk of getting long covid in this situation? e.g. is it more or less likely than me getting hit by a car in the next year? This living situation is a really great fit for me in many other ways, like the social nature of it and the low rent, I just want to understand the tradeoffs more clearly before I make this decision.
The risk might be something like: probability that any household member (vaxxed, boosted 20-something) gets covid * probability of household transmission to me, as a healthy triple-vaxxed 20-something * probability that that variant turns into long covid * probability that antiviral drugs do not stop long covid. Now of course the risk depends on the period of time spent living there too.
If the risk looks like less than 3% per year, then I think I would do it. I would even be open to doing this while lowering overall health risk in other ways.
Alternately, if the risk of the situation (even given the social + financial benefits) is WAY higher than the average MeFite's risk profile, and you think I'm engaging in magical thinking because I want to live in the house, I would want to know! Basically, can't tell if I'm overthinking or underthinking this one.
Caveat: you are not my doctor, you are not responsible for my decision, your risk profile is not mine, I'll check your numbers :)
House is all healthy 20- and 30-somethings. We are in California. The house policy is "do what you feel comfortable with, communicate with other people if you get sick or exposed, mask + quarantine until you test negative." People have mostly resumed normal life (dining indoors, going to gyms, having guests over, house occasionally throws ~20 person events). People are masking on public transit, also usually when in contact with strangers, and not always at indoor events. People in the house have gotten Covid before but it hasn't spread to others in the house. There are monthly house meetings and weekly house dinners. I would have my own room but common spaces are shared.
I don't have other pre-existing risk factors. I don't have a large amount of exposure to people otherwise (I work remotely and live alone). My current policies are cautious enough that I believe I haven't gotten covid yet: I wear N95 in all crowded indoor spaces. I'm not scared of getting covid because I think it's going to become endemic, I just want the risk of getting long covid specifically to be as low as possible.
Can someone help me estimate my risk of getting long covid in this situation? e.g. is it more or less likely than me getting hit by a car in the next year? This living situation is a really great fit for me in many other ways, like the social nature of it and the low rent, I just want to understand the tradeoffs more clearly before I make this decision.
The risk might be something like: probability that any household member (vaxxed, boosted 20-something) gets covid * probability of household transmission to me, as a healthy triple-vaxxed 20-something * probability that that variant turns into long covid * probability that antiviral drugs do not stop long covid. Now of course the risk depends on the period of time spent living there too.
If the risk looks like less than 3% per year, then I think I would do it. I would even be open to doing this while lowering overall health risk in other ways.
Alternately, if the risk of the situation (even given the social + financial benefits) is WAY higher than the average MeFite's risk profile, and you think I'm engaging in magical thinking because I want to live in the house, I would want to know! Basically, can't tell if I'm overthinking or underthinking this one.
Caveat: you are not my doctor, you are not responsible for my decision, your risk profile is not mine, I'll check your numbers :)
Frankly you're better off just googling this & hearing directly from the experts because the advice you're going to get is either something someone else googled, or worse, their own personal opinion. From what I've read, the risk has nothing to do with your current health, and basically you have a new risk with every exposure. You can't just decide "the risk is 3% therefore 0 therefore it's fine." There was a show on HBO where 3% of the population disappeared and that's actually a lot of people. If that same 3% is actually functionally disabled instead of disappeared, that's still a huge number.
posted by bleep at 2:25 PM on October 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by bleep at 2:25 PM on October 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
If you're living with people who are dining indoors, going to the gym, and attending indoor parties, repeated bouts of COVID are a near certainty. Who gets long COVID and why is still something we can't really predict. It feels way more likely than a car crash, though.
posted by mcgsa at 3:05 PM on October 20, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by mcgsa at 3:05 PM on October 20, 2022 [12 favorites]
I think living with five people who go to separate indoor events gives you quite a high chance of getting COVID a few times. It expands your web of immediate contact quite a lot.
I also live with 5 people but we’re all related, so for more than 75% of the events we go to, we’re all together - one Saturday of socializing might mean we all go to a kiddo’s birthday party which is just one common exposure for all of us. If we go shopping we all eat the food, so 5 people get food from just one possible exposure, etc.
But living with unrelated friends could mean they go out separately, so one Saturday of socializing might mean your home is filled with people who went to three friend brunches, a family lunch, a concert, a couple of indoor restaurant meals, three different grocery stores, two coffee shops, and some date night make out sessions - all from the same single calendar day! Plus likely socializing with a high percentage of other young people who live in very social housing groups. To me that’s a much bigger risk.
Mental health and happiness is really important too, so it’s worth considering. But to me that friend group seems pretty likely to result in a few covid cases each.
posted by nouvelle-personne at 3:21 PM on October 20, 2022 [5 favorites]
I also live with 5 people but we’re all related, so for more than 75% of the events we go to, we’re all together - one Saturday of socializing might mean we all go to a kiddo’s birthday party which is just one common exposure for all of us. If we go shopping we all eat the food, so 5 people get food from just one possible exposure, etc.
But living with unrelated friends could mean they go out separately, so one Saturday of socializing might mean your home is filled with people who went to three friend brunches, a family lunch, a concert, a couple of indoor restaurant meals, three different grocery stores, two coffee shops, and some date night make out sessions - all from the same single calendar day! Plus likely socializing with a high percentage of other young people who live in very social housing groups. To me that’s a much bigger risk.
Mental health and happiness is really important too, so it’s worth considering. But to me that friend group seems pretty likely to result in a few covid cases each.
posted by nouvelle-personne at 3:21 PM on October 20, 2022 [5 favorites]
According to the CDC the risk factors for Long Covid are:
"People who have experienced more severe COVID-19 illness, especially those who were hospitalized or needed intensive care.
People who had underlying health conditions prior to COVID-19.
People who did not get a COVID-19 vaccine.
People who experience multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS) during or after COVID-19 illness."
But yes, I agree with others that this is hard to predict, in part because we're still too close to the data to make sense of it - much of the earliest long covid studies were on on people pre-vaccines, so it's hard to know how much that data applies to us now. And then there is the issue that most studies I've seen don't do a good job of separating severe cases of long covid from mild ones.
All that said, it seems highly likely that in this living situation, you will get COVID more than once. Is the plan to still be "dining indoors, going to gyms, having guests over, house occasionally throws ~20 person events" when cases spike soon, as they are predicted to? Even if you don't get long COVID, being sick repeatedly stinks, and wouldn't seem worth it to me.
posted by coffeecat at 3:21 PM on October 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
"People who have experienced more severe COVID-19 illness, especially those who were hospitalized or needed intensive care.
People who had underlying health conditions prior to COVID-19.
People who did not get a COVID-19 vaccine.
People who experience multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS) during or after COVID-19 illness."
But yes, I agree with others that this is hard to predict, in part because we're still too close to the data to make sense of it - much of the earliest long covid studies were on on people pre-vaccines, so it's hard to know how much that data applies to us now. And then there is the issue that most studies I've seen don't do a good job of separating severe cases of long covid from mild ones.
All that said, it seems highly likely that in this living situation, you will get COVID more than once. Is the plan to still be "dining indoors, going to gyms, having guests over, house occasionally throws ~20 person events" when cases spike soon, as they are predicted to? Even if you don't get long COVID, being sick repeatedly stinks, and wouldn't seem worth it to me.
posted by coffeecat at 3:21 PM on October 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
Best answer: We really don't have a detailed handle on this risk, but we can certainly estimate it roughly. If you're vaccinated and boosted and you're only worried about Long Covid that lasts for more than a few months and significantly impacts your daily life, your risk is probably on the order of 1% per infection (based on UK ONS survey data). It might be 2%, it might be 0.5%, but somewhere around 1% is probably as accurate as you're going to get. I think you can guess that you're in for roughly one infection per year in a shared housing situation with most having returned to normal life (again, maybe 2, maybe 0.5). So you're looking at very roughly 1% chance of significant Long Covid per year.
We also don't know if the risk of LC is reduced with subsequent infections. There are reasonable reasons to believe it might be, but we don't really know at this point because there is no solid data. There also isn't anything on Paxlovid and LC.
1% per year is much lower than your 3% threshold, but much, much higher than your getting hit by a car threshold. 1% is roughly 75 times more likely than being injured in a car accident as a pedestrian and 500 time more likely than being killed in car accident as a pedestrian.
Personally, as someone who already has all illness that is likely the same as Long Covid (just from another infection, not Covid), I'd say a 1% risk is very high. This is potentially a catastrophic outcome involving significant disability and a major loss of quality of life that has the potential to last for years, decades or the rest of your life.
I'd urge you to continue to be cautious for now. At the very least, I think we'll know much better in the coming months what the risk of LC following repeated infections is, which could potentially change your calculus here. We may develop better vaccines (e.g. nasal) or better treatments.
posted by ssg at 4:29 PM on October 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
We also don't know if the risk of LC is reduced with subsequent infections. There are reasonable reasons to believe it might be, but we don't really know at this point because there is no solid data. There also isn't anything on Paxlovid and LC.
1% per year is much lower than your 3% threshold, but much, much higher than your getting hit by a car threshold. 1% is roughly 75 times more likely than being injured in a car accident as a pedestrian and 500 time more likely than being killed in car accident as a pedestrian.
Personally, as someone who already has all illness that is likely the same as Long Covid (just from another infection, not Covid), I'd say a 1% risk is very high. This is potentially a catastrophic outcome involving significant disability and a major loss of quality of life that has the potential to last for years, decades or the rest of your life.
I'd urge you to continue to be cautious for now. At the very least, I think we'll know much better in the coming months what the risk of LC following repeated infections is, which could potentially change your calculus here. We may develop better vaccines (e.g. nasal) or better treatments.
posted by ssg at 4:29 PM on October 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
The single predictor of long COVID that the health agencies focus on is the obvious one: catching COVID in the first place. If you currently live alone and work remotely, wearing an N-95 in crowded spaces, your current risk of catching COVID is low. If you move into a house with 6 other people who have partners and parties, your risk of catching COVID will go up substantially, and therefore your risk of long COVID will go up substantially.
Think of all the intermediary steps: you would increase your own risk if you began working in an office… attending/removing your mask at indoor events… hosting 20+ person parties; your risk would increase again if you moved in with just *one* other person who behaved in these ways, much less *five*.
The trade off may be worth it for you! But it is a big increase in relative risk.
posted by rrrrrrrrrt at 5:04 PM on October 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
Think of all the intermediary steps: you would increase your own risk if you began working in an office… attending/removing your mask at indoor events… hosting 20+ person parties; your risk would increase again if you moved in with just *one* other person who behaved in these ways, much less *five*.
The trade off may be worth it for you! But it is a big increase in relative risk.
posted by rrrrrrrrrt at 5:04 PM on October 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
I don’t think an absolute probability is achievable, but you can probably try to model out how likely it would be in comparison to what you’re doing now. The simplest case is that your risk of Covid increases linear…ly with each additional roommate. So if you live alone your risk is x. With another roommate that’s 2x, with 5 it’s 5x. Obviously there lots of complicating factors, including different people’s exposure levels, and your behavior with one another, as well as the mysteries of Covid itself.
posted by chesty_a_arthur at 5:28 PM on October 20, 2022
posted by chesty_a_arthur at 5:28 PM on October 20, 2022
I think you should assume you will get covid living in this house, probably multiple times a year. In your shoes I wouldn't bother trying to calculate those odds; just assume it's going to happen.
So probably best to focus your research on the likelihood of long COVID from those repeated infections. Which is still very much an unknown as far as I can tell, a few well publicized but questionably applicable to the real world studies aside. But I might be behind the times on new research, so if I were you, I'd be running to PubMed to get my hands on new first hand sources.
I absolutely would not do this but I'm generally pretty COVID cautious, as many of my loved ones are dealing with chronic disability already. If you're ready to give up being COVID cautious, then my risk decisions aren't a good comparison for you.
posted by Stacey at 5:43 PM on October 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
So probably best to focus your research on the likelihood of long COVID from those repeated infections. Which is still very much an unknown as far as I can tell, a few well publicized but questionably applicable to the real world studies aside. But I might be behind the times on new research, so if I were you, I'd be running to PubMed to get my hands on new first hand sources.
I absolutely would not do this but I'm generally pretty COVID cautious, as many of my loved ones are dealing with chronic disability already. If you're ready to give up being COVID cautious, then my risk decisions aren't a good comparison for you.
posted by Stacey at 5:43 PM on October 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
We know that the chances of Long Covid INCREASE with each infection (google the VA study, it has a large cohort including quite a number of younger people. Read it yourself not the punditry about it.)
Use microCovid and run a few scenarios with your location. Five people, in close contact, indoors, no masks, three hours a day, with “has been to a bar” as the risk for all of them (since they’re eating indoors.) Read the documentation and decide which risk group you feel comfortable being in. Run the data and see. You can use the microCovid risk calculator to tally up the risk and whether it goes over your risk budget.
Personally, if I had to do this it would have to include a non-shared bathroom, preferably attached to the room, and I would eat my meals in my room and wear a mask in common areas except for the shared weekly meal that I would be having every rapid test before having together. I would strongly prefer not to do this because the data about long covid, strokes, and cardiac events are just staggeringly bad. There was a recent Forbes article about the skyrocketing number of people in their 20s and 30s having strokes and heart attacks on just an unprecedented scale. Many of whom had a mild case or don’t even remember getting it but their blood shows nucleocapsid antibodies (which you only get from infection).
Combined with the epidemiologists all warning of a very bad winter between flu and new variants that are proving immune evasive on a terrifying level … your risk TODAY of catching covid is very different than your risk of catching it in January.
You might also check wastewater levels and see how closely they match case counts in your area to have an idea of how much you can trust the microCovid data, which is based on case counts.
Currently, my line is that I will relax precautions when my chances of dying from covid are the same as a car accident. Currently, it’s an order of magnitude more dangerous. And that’s just the cases listed with covid on the death certificate, not all the sequelae deaths that are listed as cardiac or stroke or sudden.
posted by Bottlecap at 8:10 PM on October 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
Use microCovid and run a few scenarios with your location. Five people, in close contact, indoors, no masks, three hours a day, with “has been to a bar” as the risk for all of them (since they’re eating indoors.) Read the documentation and decide which risk group you feel comfortable being in. Run the data and see. You can use the microCovid risk calculator to tally up the risk and whether it goes over your risk budget.
Personally, if I had to do this it would have to include a non-shared bathroom, preferably attached to the room, and I would eat my meals in my room and wear a mask in common areas except for the shared weekly meal that I would be having every rapid test before having together. I would strongly prefer not to do this because the data about long covid, strokes, and cardiac events are just staggeringly bad. There was a recent Forbes article about the skyrocketing number of people in their 20s and 30s having strokes and heart attacks on just an unprecedented scale. Many of whom had a mild case or don’t even remember getting it but their blood shows nucleocapsid antibodies (which you only get from infection).
Combined with the epidemiologists all warning of a very bad winter between flu and new variants that are proving immune evasive on a terrifying level … your risk TODAY of catching covid is very different than your risk of catching it in January.
You might also check wastewater levels and see how closely they match case counts in your area to have an idea of how much you can trust the microCovid data, which is based on case counts.
Currently, my line is that I will relax precautions when my chances of dying from covid are the same as a car accident. Currently, it’s an order of magnitude more dangerous. And that’s just the cases listed with covid on the death certificate, not all the sequelae deaths that are listed as cardiac or stroke or sudden.
posted by Bottlecap at 8:10 PM on October 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
Also read the Scottish study that came out this month on long covid! Extremely detailed information about risks and how much vaccination impacts it. I had to watch a couple YouTube videos to understand Odds Ratios, Confidence Intervals and Hazard Ratios in order to understand how to interpret the study, but the 45 minutes worth of my time was well worth it in terms of understanding my risks of long covid. I am choosing to continue taking precautions, since long covid is one of my primary concerns. The Scottish study is a phenomenal data set and by far the most diverse information we have to date.
posted by Bottlecap at 8:17 PM on October 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Bottlecap at 8:17 PM on October 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
Dr. Robert Wachter has done several walk-throughs of his personal risk analysis and calculations. Here's his thread from September 18 where he talks about reaching the point of being willing to eat indoors in San Francisco:
Since he wrote that, San Francisco cases have edged up again a bit - instead of being below 5/100K/day (Wachter's personal cutoff for acceptable risk of dining indoors), they're back up to 10 (I think). So if prevalence is already increasing a bit in many parts of the US, your odds of long covid are going to go up as well, of course.
posted by kristi at 8:32 PM on October 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
I’m far more worried about Long Covid. Odds of getting LC from a single case is ~10-20% in unvaxxed; it drops by ~50% in vaxxed. Let’s say it’s 5% – that'd mean that my 1/100 chance of getting Covid from a single meal would translate into a 1 in 2,000 chance of getting LC.(18/25)I recommend reading the whole thread (and his feed generally as he reports on the latest research).
I’m also persuaded that my case of Covid will increase my odds over time of having a heart attack, stroke, diabetes, & cognitive decline. nature.com/articles/s41591-0… The magnitude of that increase isn’t well established. As a back-of-the-envelope, let's guess it’ll be of … (19/25)
…similar magnitude to the risk of symptomatic Long Covid. If so, that would make the overall odds of a negative long-term bad effect from a case of Covid in a vaxxed/boosted person 10% per case (5% risk of symptomatic LC; 5% increase in odds of long-term bad outcome). (20/25)
Since he wrote that, San Francisco cases have edged up again a bit - instead of being below 5/100K/day (Wachter's personal cutoff for acceptable risk of dining indoors), they're back up to 10 (I think). So if prevalence is already increasing a bit in many parts of the US, your odds of long covid are going to go up as well, of course.
posted by kristi at 8:32 PM on October 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
Also: this might be the VA study that Bottlecap mentioned.
(I believe I came across it via Dr. Wachter's Twitter.)
posted by kristi at 8:39 PM on October 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
(I believe I came across it via Dr. Wachter's Twitter.)
posted by kristi at 8:39 PM on October 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
You asked if the risk of this living situation seems way higher than the average risk profile. At least for me it does not, and I think it is entirely reasonable for you to consider this.
I'd call myself somewhat more covid cautious than other people in my personal social circle, though less cautious than most people answering covid questions on Mefi. Since completing my primary vaccine sequence in early 2021, I have been doing the following things:
1. Working in-person (and for the last 6 months or so, unmasked) in a large, public building.
2. Sending my toddler to group daycare with 10+ other toddlers.
3. Living/sharing a bed with a nurse who occasionally works with covid positive patients.
I think each of those things individually probably exposes me to at least as much if not more risk of catching covid than the living situation you are considering. The fact that your potential household has had people get covid, but hasn't had it spread among roommates is great news and I think speaks highly of the precautions folks there are taking. Obviously everyone's personal risk/benefit assessment varies significantly, but personally, I don't think this is an insane risk to consider.
posted by mjcon at 10:35 PM on October 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'd call myself somewhat more covid cautious than other people in my personal social circle, though less cautious than most people answering covid questions on Mefi. Since completing my primary vaccine sequence in early 2021, I have been doing the following things:
1. Working in-person (and for the last 6 months or so, unmasked) in a large, public building.
2. Sending my toddler to group daycare with 10+ other toddlers.
3. Living/sharing a bed with a nurse who occasionally works with covid positive patients.
I think each of those things individually probably exposes me to at least as much if not more risk of catching covid than the living situation you are considering. The fact that your potential household has had people get covid, but hasn't had it spread among roommates is great news and I think speaks highly of the precautions folks there are taking. Obviously everyone's personal risk/benefit assessment varies significantly, but personally, I don't think this is an insane risk to consider.
posted by mjcon at 10:35 PM on October 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
And here’s a link to the Scottish study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33415-5
The news articles I’ve found about it don’t have the actual numbers, which is what I think you are interested in.
Also, I am pulling my hair out trying to find the final version of the VA study that has the incredibly helpful figures (it’s somewhere in my massive bookmarks folder…) but you can skip to figure 5 here to see the takeaway.
And worth pointing out that Dr. Robert Wachter’s wife now has Long Covid using his method of risk assessment…
posted by Bottlecap at 10:54 PM on October 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
The news articles I’ve found about it don’t have the actual numbers, which is what I think you are interested in.
Also, I am pulling my hair out trying to find the final version of the VA study that has the incredibly helpful figures (it’s somewhere in my massive bookmarks folder…) but you can skip to figure 5 here to see the takeaway.
And worth pointing out that Dr. Robert Wachter’s wife now has Long Covid using his method of risk assessment…
posted by Bottlecap at 10:54 PM on October 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
According to the latest research, between 5% and 10% of vaccinated people who catch COVID will develop long-COVID.
For unvaccinated people, it's 15%.
The oral antiviral Paxlovid seems to reduce the risk somewhat, so if you do catch COVID, talk to your Dr about Paxlovid immediately (you need to take it ASAP for it to work).
posted by chariot pulled by cassowaries at 3:59 AM on October 21, 2022
For unvaccinated people, it's 15%.
The oral antiviral Paxlovid seems to reduce the risk somewhat, so if you do catch COVID, talk to your Dr about Paxlovid immediately (you need to take it ASAP for it to work).
posted by chariot pulled by cassowaries at 3:59 AM on October 21, 2022
Large study provides powerful evidence of long covid’s lasting impact
The Scottish study, one of the largest on long covid, found that 1 in 20 people had not recovered more than six months after infection
posted by chariot pulled by cassowaries at 4:00 AM on October 21, 2022
The Scottish study, one of the largest on long covid, found that 1 in 20 people had not recovered more than six months after infection
posted by chariot pulled by cassowaries at 4:00 AM on October 21, 2022
It seems to me that the risk profile of this housing option is closest to "dorm living." Many "reasonable" people are living in dorms/ college student type housing in 2022, but probably made that decision without good data.
If you did choose this housing option, it would probably be prudent to put an air filter in your room (and maybe in common spaces if you could get housemates to agree).
Having been in a shared housing situation* at the beginning of the pandemic you might want to consider the following:
- confirm that the internet situation is robust enough to handle work from home
- confirm there is reasonable acoustic privacy
*to my knowledge no one came down with COVID, but we were pretty locked down at that stage.
posted by oceano at 4:01 AM on October 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
If you did choose this housing option, it would probably be prudent to put an air filter in your room (and maybe in common spaces if you could get housemates to agree).
Having been in a shared housing situation* at the beginning of the pandemic you might want to consider the following:
- confirm that the internet situation is robust enough to handle work from home
- confirm there is reasonable acoustic privacy
*to my knowledge no one came down with COVID, but we were pretty locked down at that stage.
posted by oceano at 4:01 AM on October 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
Adding to oceano's list: I'd at minimum want there to be a shower/bath with a window that can be opened, since that's one place where you can't wear a mask when there's an infection.
posted by trig at 7:04 AM on October 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by trig at 7:04 AM on October 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
the problem is that while the numbers may be on your side, presuming you are right to think you've never had covid yet, that will change once you have had it. I mean - if I had your level of youth & health I would probably feel reasonably ok about living in a shared house where I was guaranteed to get covid sooner or later, because the risk of catastrophic lasting health consequences from one round of covid sounds pretty low to a young and healthy person.
but the risk of catastrophic health consequences from multiple rounds of covid is not so low. so to be genuinely prudent, you should absolutely count on getting covid sometime in the next 1-12 months and make plans to remove yourself from the shared living situation immediately after you recover, to avoid a second & third round. if this would not be possible, maybe it is not such a good idea.
but this is not a plan people are seriously making, even though I think they should. so, if it would not be possible but you're going to risk it anyway, think out what you would do if you do end up with lasting health damage from a single covid experience. like will these people you'd be living with be the kind of people who will take care of you if you need to stay in bed for a month, bring you food, let the rent slide for a bit. or more than a bit. this is a really important part of determining your risk, as much as the numbers.
you can decide that living in a community is more important than doing everything you can to stay at your current level of health and physical ability. but personally I think this is only sensible in circumstances where the community is one that will take care of you if the bad thing happens.
posted by queenofbithynia at 9:05 AM on October 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
but the risk of catastrophic health consequences from multiple rounds of covid is not so low. so to be genuinely prudent, you should absolutely count on getting covid sometime in the next 1-12 months and make plans to remove yourself from the shared living situation immediately after you recover, to avoid a second & third round. if this would not be possible, maybe it is not such a good idea.
but this is not a plan people are seriously making, even though I think they should. so, if it would not be possible but you're going to risk it anyway, think out what you would do if you do end up with lasting health damage from a single covid experience. like will these people you'd be living with be the kind of people who will take care of you if you need to stay in bed for a month, bring you food, let the rent slide for a bit. or more than a bit. this is a really important part of determining your risk, as much as the numbers.
you can decide that living in a community is more important than doing everything you can to stay at your current level of health and physical ability. but personally I think this is only sensible in circumstances where the community is one that will take care of you if the bad thing happens.
posted by queenofbithynia at 9:05 AM on October 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
Response by poster: FWIW, I decided not to do it. Your answers were very helpful!
posted by icosahedron at 9:25 PM on November 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by icosahedron at 9:25 PM on November 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
This thread is closed to new comments.
Writing as someone who has had semi-long covid -- 7 months of symptoms, now almost normal, but with a strong reaction to my booster shot two weeks ago. I always imagined I would have a bad case, because I have astma, and felt existing respiratory disease would probably be a bad thing. I was not wrong. But as far as I understand the evidence, there is not a completely clear pattern.
posted by mumimor at 2:15 PM on October 20, 2022 [2 favorites]