Russian aggression / Baltics - When to get out of Dodge?
April 18, 2022 12:25 AM Subscribe
As soon as Russian aggression in Ukraine turned into invasion this year (NB I do not want to discuss definitions / politics / ideology here) I started planning to leave the country. I live in Lithuania and have kids. Although we feel safe here as part of the EU and NATO, I am very much aware that any type of armed conflict is not a good place for kids. As things progress, I don't feel much better. Help me get perspective and put plans in place, and know what signs to look for. I'm not panicking but want to cover all the basics.
Best answer: I'd sincerely doubt you'd do yourself much good thinking about a worst-case scenario in this situation, as a direct attack on Lithuania would be extremely likely to precipitate a third world war, and given the massive damage Russian forces have taken in Ukraine, they would need to use nuclear, biological and or chemical weapons to stand a chance, which would precipitate a devastating counterstrike likely resulting in the end of the Russian state as we know it.
Instead, I would think about your PERSONAL red lines in terms of safety. Assuming for example that you know troops are massing on the border, would that make you, by itself, want to leave? Would you rather simply go now?
I really think this is a personal mental/emotional health question much more than a practical one, that would be different for every individual family. To help offer some perspective as to the limited and declining capability of the Russian Armed Forces to strike NATO conventionally, you can check out sources like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEpk_yGjn0E
posted by StrikeTheViol at 12:55 AM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
Instead, I would think about your PERSONAL red lines in terms of safety. Assuming for example that you know troops are massing on the border, would that make you, by itself, want to leave? Would you rather simply go now?
I really think this is a personal mental/emotional health question much more than a practical one, that would be different for every individual family. To help offer some perspective as to the limited and declining capability of the Russian Armed Forces to strike NATO conventionally, you can check out sources like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEpk_yGjn0E
posted by StrikeTheViol at 12:55 AM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
Best answer: While I understand your feelings, I'm not sure moving away will do you any good. I suppose you have jobs, friends, a home where you are?
If Russia crosses into NATO somewhere, we will have a big war, and then it probably doesn't make much of a difference wether you are in Lithuania or in England. As StrikeTheViol says, it will also probably be over very fast. The Russians do not have the capacity to fight a WWIII. Don't let yourself our your family be tricked into thinking they do.
Russia makes a lot out of its historical ability to fight off invaders. But fighting off invaders is a whole different thing from a war of aggression.
Lithuania cannot defend itself alone, but it is not alone. It is part of NATO. That means that any attack on Lithuania is an attack on NATO, and that again means that all of NATO will be at war if Lithuania is attacked, so there will be nowhere to go.
That all said I can't help thinking were one might be less in harms way, within Europe. I think the Azores is the best option. The thing is, if there is a new Great War, all sorts of places will be relevant. Our family farm is as remote as you can get, but exactly because of that, there is a huge munitions depot 4 km away. I'm sure the Russians know all about it.
Lastly, I can see in the Ukraine thread that some people are finding our leaders frustratingly passive. I can get that, and from a Ukrainian it must be maddening, how long are they supposed to suffer? But part of it is that NATO leaders have access to intelligence we don't. The US has been right on every detail since before the war. They are keeping an eye on this and doing what they can without directly attacking Russia.
Don't panic.
posted by mumimor at 3:26 AM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
If Russia crosses into NATO somewhere, we will have a big war, and then it probably doesn't make much of a difference wether you are in Lithuania or in England. As StrikeTheViol says, it will also probably be over very fast. The Russians do not have the capacity to fight a WWIII. Don't let yourself our your family be tricked into thinking they do.
Russia makes a lot out of its historical ability to fight off invaders. But fighting off invaders is a whole different thing from a war of aggression.
Lithuania cannot defend itself alone, but it is not alone. It is part of NATO. That means that any attack on Lithuania is an attack on NATO, and that again means that all of NATO will be at war if Lithuania is attacked, so there will be nowhere to go.
That all said I can't help thinking were one might be less in harms way, within Europe. I think the Azores is the best option. The thing is, if there is a new Great War, all sorts of places will be relevant. Our family farm is as remote as you can get, but exactly because of that, there is a huge munitions depot 4 km away. I'm sure the Russians know all about it.
Lastly, I can see in the Ukraine thread that some people are finding our leaders frustratingly passive. I can get that, and from a Ukrainian it must be maddening, how long are they supposed to suffer? But part of it is that NATO leaders have access to intelligence we don't. The US has been right on every detail since before the war. They are keeping an eye on this and doing what they can without directly attacking Russia.
Don't panic.
posted by mumimor at 3:26 AM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
I'm the sort of person who feels better if I see a potential worst case scenario, no matter how unlikely, and then take a few concrete actions. No need to go bananas, but it's not bad to have a plan in your back pocket.
So if you're like me, it's probably not going to comfort you to hear that you're in a NATO country, that Russia is blustering, and that anywhere you go is bad.
Sure, everywhere you go is bad, but why not at least try to improve your odds?
For now, I'd take a few concrete steps for contingency planning:
1. Make sure you are registered with the embassies of countries where you hold citizenship, and that all members of your family are accounted for in terms of up-to-date paperwork. Your embassy will keep you up to date on any security issues, and warn you in increasingly dire language if it's time to go.
And definitely sort your papers. You don't want to be in a situation where you're haggling about visas and passports while you're trying to hotfoot it out of the country, because you're a UK citizen and so is Child A, but Child B isn't, etc.
2. Pack some bugout bags. A sturdy backpack for each person, with a few days of clothing, a copy of essential documents, protein snacks, a week of medication, toiletries, maybe a comfort item. You can peck around online for ideas, but skip advice on stoves and knives. You'd be grabbing these bags on your way to mass transportation of some kind, not living off the land.
3. Decide some red flags. Leave if your embassy says GTFO? That could be simple enough. I can't speak for other countries, but American embassies generally base their GTFO warnings on sturdy intelligence.
4. Have a destination in mind. If you're throwing on backpacks and heading for the airport, where do you go? Yes, it will likely be fluid, but a bit of thinking ahead and conversation could bring peace of mind. Reach out to friends and family, ask if they would take you in if things got hot.
5. Decide how you will discuss this within your family, in what (age-appropriate) ways. My daughter is three, she knows we have a bugout bag in case we have to leave quickly (but, like, ordinary evacuations like fire), we would get the bag and go in the car, and it would be very very important to listen to Mommy and Daddy, and our family is a team. Easy enough for now.
posted by champers at 4:21 AM on April 18, 2022 [33 favorites]
So if you're like me, it's probably not going to comfort you to hear that you're in a NATO country, that Russia is blustering, and that anywhere you go is bad.
Sure, everywhere you go is bad, but why not at least try to improve your odds?
For now, I'd take a few concrete steps for contingency planning:
1. Make sure you are registered with the embassies of countries where you hold citizenship, and that all members of your family are accounted for in terms of up-to-date paperwork. Your embassy will keep you up to date on any security issues, and warn you in increasingly dire language if it's time to go.
And definitely sort your papers. You don't want to be in a situation where you're haggling about visas and passports while you're trying to hotfoot it out of the country, because you're a UK citizen and so is Child A, but Child B isn't, etc.
2. Pack some bugout bags. A sturdy backpack for each person, with a few days of clothing, a copy of essential documents, protein snacks, a week of medication, toiletries, maybe a comfort item. You can peck around online for ideas, but skip advice on stoves and knives. You'd be grabbing these bags on your way to mass transportation of some kind, not living off the land.
3. Decide some red flags. Leave if your embassy says GTFO? That could be simple enough. I can't speak for other countries, but American embassies generally base their GTFO warnings on sturdy intelligence.
4. Have a destination in mind. If you're throwing on backpacks and heading for the airport, where do you go? Yes, it will likely be fluid, but a bit of thinking ahead and conversation could bring peace of mind. Reach out to friends and family, ask if they would take you in if things got hot.
5. Decide how you will discuss this within your family, in what (age-appropriate) ways. My daughter is three, she knows we have a bugout bag in case we have to leave quickly (but, like, ordinary evacuations like fire), we would get the bag and go in the car, and it would be very very important to listen to Mommy and Daddy, and our family is a team. Easy enough for now.
posted by champers at 4:21 AM on April 18, 2022 [33 favorites]
This is what I am doing to prepare, I am a super anxious person and I hope this doesn’t trigger anyone- but it’s how I deal with uncertainty. We are in continental Europe in an urban area. I’m vacillating with thinking that I’m overreacting but on the other hand I’ve got some time on my hands and I’d rather be prepared for things than doom scroll.
My personal wish is to hop on a flight to Brazil or South Africa the minute that anything starts getting hairy because like everyone is saying, all of Europe would be quite scary. I would go now but the kids are in school and we have jobs… so that’s not really practical. So in the end I feel like if it all goes crazy we might just get stuck- so we have two plans. The plan to try and leave (I would do this if they started using tactical nukes or they started noticing large movements of the Russian population- so if they noticed that they were preparing for something big) and then the plan if we don’t get a chance and those various scenarios.
1) get paper work in order. Get passport photos printed (these often come in handy and kids ones aren’t usually up to date). Make sure important documents are in one place.
2) consider where you would go. This might change due to the circumstances. If troops are building up on your border then you will want to leave so make your decisions about where you would want to go and how you would go. If you are going to drive then get a jerry can with some extra fuel so you can really keep going and keep your tank topped up weekly.
3) I’m not worried about nuclear fallout but since they keep talking about it and scaring the pants off me I’m taking the time to prepare for that anyway… so do you have a cellar or communal basement? Check that out now. We got iodine tablets, 2 week supply of water, 2 week supply of food and a 300watt power bank and I measured the floor to see if our mattresses would fit and how. Honestly, reading my 1987 survival skills for nuclear war book actually made me feel super empowered and less frightened about it. Although it did totally make me want to move to South Africa.
4) prepare for general infrastructure disruptions. Make sure you could survive an extended blackout… just think about it a little bit. We got a little camping gas stove, long life milk, I’m getting ready to order a solar panel to charge my battery.
I’m not 100 percent that these things are going to happen, because these types of hacks and attacks end up being like a range fire and they end up going back on the attacker in ways they can’t predict so they won’t just do them willy nilly BUT it takes time and thought to consider all these things so I think it’s worth thinking through even if it’s unlikely.
posted by pairofshades at 5:39 AM on April 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
My personal wish is to hop on a flight to Brazil or South Africa the minute that anything starts getting hairy because like everyone is saying, all of Europe would be quite scary. I would go now but the kids are in school and we have jobs… so that’s not really practical. So in the end I feel like if it all goes crazy we might just get stuck- so we have two plans. The plan to try and leave (I would do this if they started using tactical nukes or they started noticing large movements of the Russian population- so if they noticed that they were preparing for something big) and then the plan if we don’t get a chance and those various scenarios.
1) get paper work in order. Get passport photos printed (these often come in handy and kids ones aren’t usually up to date). Make sure important documents are in one place.
2) consider where you would go. This might change due to the circumstances. If troops are building up on your border then you will want to leave so make your decisions about where you would want to go and how you would go. If you are going to drive then get a jerry can with some extra fuel so you can really keep going and keep your tank topped up weekly.
3) I’m not worried about nuclear fallout but since they keep talking about it and scaring the pants off me I’m taking the time to prepare for that anyway… so do you have a cellar or communal basement? Check that out now. We got iodine tablets, 2 week supply of water, 2 week supply of food and a 300watt power bank and I measured the floor to see if our mattresses would fit and how. Honestly, reading my 1987 survival skills for nuclear war book actually made me feel super empowered and less frightened about it. Although it did totally make me want to move to South Africa.
4) prepare for general infrastructure disruptions. Make sure you could survive an extended blackout… just think about it a little bit. We got a little camping gas stove, long life milk, I’m getting ready to order a solar panel to charge my battery.
I’m not 100 percent that these things are going to happen, because these types of hacks and attacks end up being like a range fire and they end up going back on the attacker in ways they can’t predict so they won’t just do them willy nilly BUT it takes time and thought to consider all these things so I think it’s worth thinking through even if it’s unlikely.
posted by pairofshades at 5:39 AM on April 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
Maybe I'm a little out of date in these days of cash-free commerce, bitcoin, etc., but if I were in a potentially hostile place and wanted all my options to flee rapidly, I would want to have a good supply of cash in hand. I'd want a universal, stable, and desirable currency, like euro or dollars. What if something, like successfully hacking into the nation's financial system happens? If that does occur cash may be very hard to get.
You might also consider opening an account in the UK or another stable EU country and transferring chunks of your liquid assets now to preclude any potential bank freeze in your current country. If you feel you must leave your home, some of your assets will have already been protected from seizure, hacking, or the unknown consequences of war.
posted by citygirl at 7:47 AM on April 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
You might also consider opening an account in the UK or another stable EU country and transferring chunks of your liquid assets now to preclude any potential bank freeze in your current country. If you feel you must leave your home, some of your assets will have already been protected from seizure, hacking, or the unknown consequences of war.
posted by citygirl at 7:47 AM on April 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
Oh! A couple other things you want to do. Write down on a piece of paper all the important phone numbers and addresses just in case. Make sure that your entire life isn’t stored on your phone, for example my husband travelled last week and one of his chargers didn’t work and his phone died and he didn’t have his sim pin and he got locked out and didn’t have the PUK code and it was a PITA… and on that phone was his EU Covid Pass. And he needed that to fly back here, and the hotel couldn’t get through to the mobile company… So right now, while you have time, just sit down and make sure you’ve got a physical copy of stuff like the Covid pass, phone numbers, ehic cards, other health insurance stuff.
Also, do you need a health procedure done or teeth cleaning? A filling replaced… all those things are harder to do later on and you might as well put it all on the to do list.
posted by pairofshades at 8:19 AM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
Also, do you need a health procedure done or teeth cleaning? A filling replaced… all those things are harder to do later on and you might as well put it all on the to do list.
posted by pairofshades at 8:19 AM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
Best answer: We've talked about this off and on (we're in eastern Germany) and one important thing was to set limits, what are the signals that something worth fleeing from is about to happen? Embassy warning? Local government warning? Reports of big population movement in Russia? etc.
Above are also points we worked out - making sure papers are in order, making sure we have a place to land if we have to go. (though honestly, if the worst happens - if all those nightmares from the 80's come true - we likely won't be able to get on a plane, likely no-one will, so we have a contingency for that.) We've spoken about all this as family, too, so everyone is on the same page, or at least knows what page we are on.
My money, in the long run, is on none of this preparation being necessary - but: hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
posted by From Bklyn at 8:55 AM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
Above are also points we worked out - making sure papers are in order, making sure we have a place to land if we have to go. (though honestly, if the worst happens - if all those nightmares from the 80's come true - we likely won't be able to get on a plane, likely no-one will, so we have a contingency for that.) We've spoken about all this as family, too, so everyone is on the same page, or at least knows what page we are on.
My money, in the long run, is on none of this preparation being necessary - but: hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
posted by From Bklyn at 8:55 AM on April 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
Best answer: As far as the 'should-i-stay-or-should-i-go' part, I would talk to your Lithuanian friends and neighbors about their plans.
posted by coffeeand at 8:25 PM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by coffeeand at 8:25 PM on April 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
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posted by KMH at 12:26 AM on April 18, 2022