Oh, Canada?
April 7, 2017 4:58 PM   Subscribe

There's a 10 to 15 percent chance my family will leave the U.S. within the next five years, but where would we go?

Shortly after inauguration day, my husband and I made a list of hard lines that if crossed by the new administration would lead us to seek a life in a different country. My husband is a statistician and a practical guy, so when I asked him recently "How sure are you that we will still be living in the U.S. in five years?" and he said "85%-90%" I believed his estimate.

At the same time, a 10 to 15 percent chance of departure is a high enough percentage that I feel I ought to have some foundational fragment of a plan in place so I don't need to figure things out stressfully on the fly should our hard lines be crossed. Here's where I need your assistance:

Option 1: Canada
We are drawn to Canada due to the politics of the country and the straightforward path we see for immigration there. We would qualify for express entry once we completed an English language test. I'm a born and bred New Englander, so going back to the long snowy winters of my youth from the comparatively pleasant winters of the DC metro area would be tough but not insurmountable. My husband (a Southerner) might have a more challenging time.

We have been considering Toronto (I have a second cousin there) and Hamilton (climate), but I'm not sure how easy it would be for us to find work or how easy it would be to integrate in a community there in order to network. We don't know what other towns or cities in Canada would likewise make sense for us. I can cobble together ok French, but I would hardly call it professional or fluent anymore. I'm also not sure what other hurdles we might be facing that we wouldn't be prepared for like cost of housing, etc.

Option 2: Elsewhere?
We are open to considering other countries, but are unsure what countries might be best for our abilities and are friendly to (or at least accept) U.S. immigrants.

Some specs on us-

Husband: Statistician (eight years work experience, but no graduate degree)
Me: Librarian (four years work experience, MLS)
Languages: I can get around with French and Italian. My husband knows a little Japanese. We know very little Spanish as of yet, but willing to learn.
My grandmother was from London, but I'm not a commonwealth citizen so I don't think I qualify to apply for U.K. citizenship via ancestry.
We have a lovely dog who is healthy but also has an undying yet quite controllable rare species of tapeworm (mesocestoides), so I'm guessing Oceania nations with strict pet immigration rules are out of the question (e.g. There are no mesocestoides in Australia and it looks like to date, only one has ever been reported in New Zealand).
We have no children, but may eventually.
Things we like: Healthcare, unpaved running trails, humanism/ethical culture, equality for women, ketchup chips (that one is all me).
Things we would miss: Our friends, our nephews and nieces, our extended family, 4th of July parties

Thanks for your help! Some modicum of a back up plan will really put my mind at ease.
posted by donut_princess to Travel & Transportation (21 answers total) 18 users marked this as a favorite
 
Best answer: Unemployment rates by Canadian city for March

Ottawa or London may be good choices for a statistician and a librarian - there are lots of federal government jobs in Ottawa, London has a lot of insurance companies. K/W also has a few.

The only negative is that (French) bilingualism is a hard requirement for a number of federal government jobs.

Toronto is fine but the housing costs are through the roof - do you already have equity in a home? The good news is that the Canadian dollar is at a nearly all-time low so that would help with a downpayment. But the costs might be a problem. But Hamilton, London, Kitchener/Waterloo, Ottawa are all fine cities that are not-Toronto and have reasonable job prospects for people in your fields. Normally I'd suggest Calgary but they've had an economic downturn as of late and job hunting may be harder there. Victoria seem to have a surprisingly low unemployment rate and is generally considered a lovely city but it's way out west which may or may not be your thing.

Ontario winters are a mixed bag and are often milder than the east coast of the US in the same year. Which is not saying much for those years when Boston gets 10 feet of snow or whatever.
posted by GuyZero at 5:11 PM on April 7, 2017 [1 favorite]


Best answer: You would be eligible under current NAFTA rules (1603.D.1) enter once you had a job offer. Getting the job offer might be difficult. I'm a Librarian and we are pretty saturated in Ontario - I generally get 70+ qualified (degree plus 5 years experience) applications for MLS positions that pay around $75,000/year (average salary for MLS in urban Ontario - however house prices and rent costs in the GTA are pretty insane right now). Toronto has a Library School (as does Montreal) so it is even worse there, jobwise. There is also the (very slight) chance NAFTA rules will change, especially if there is a distortion from Americans fleeing North, or Trump acting irrationally. If you were serious about moving I would be building your Canadian network now and move up a potential moving day. I rarely see Statisticians jobs outside government, is your husband working for a commerical employer that can transfer him to a Canadian division? If not, he may want to look for jobs with companies that have Canadian divisions. My personal feeling is that anti-Americanism is starting to tick up again so that may also be a factor in some people's hiring decision. For myself, I won't hire an American librarian because generally when I need a position filled I can't wait for paperwork to be filled from CIC and the candidate to search for local housing (very tight market) but I am in a Public Library and corporate libraries may be able to be more flexible. Moving up for a contract job, sadly common, so you are applying as a "local" for permanent jobs may be necessary.
posted by saucysault at 6:27 PM on April 7, 2017 [4 favorites]


Do not underestimate how shockingly, staggeringly expensive housing in Toronto is.

If you haven't spent much time in Ontario, I will note that at the broad, cultural levels the differences between Canada -- or at least Ontario --and the US are probably not as big as you think. At that level, Toronto has never seemed particularly more progressive -- to me -- than New York or other northern American places that you can just move to without asking permission. Likewise, the political differences are there, but easy to overstate. Yeah, Canada isn't at all likely to give up universal health care, and Canada is going to remain too small to be causing problems in the world. But Harper was just a couple of years ago. And while there were things Harper couldn't touch, like health care, or just couldn't afford to do, like bomb the shit out of brown people... dude was a horror. Trump-level horror except that he was articulate. Especially to a statistician!

I don't mean this as any dig on Canada. Only that Americans sometimes get this sense that Canada is an overwhelmingly liberal or leftist place, that it's a Scandinavian country next door, and the truth is that while it has these narrow channels where it's to the left of the US, in lots of ways Ontario anyway is sort of More Ohio or More Upstate New York.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 9:07 PM on April 7, 2017 [21 favorites]


I spend a lot of time in Canada and most of my best friends are Canadian and yeah, it's not that liberal in the way you are thinking. Harper did all the things Trump wants to do re the environment, silencing scientists, firing most of them, destroying libraries and data and research programs and the country let him do it. Also see Rob Ford and "Ford Nation" and the entire province of Alberta. Toronto is about a Houston on a scale from Bible thumping small town to San Francisco. Housing prices are also INSANE in Canada, even the parts Canadians think are reasonable are eye popping.

Finally it's very difficult to get permanent residency as an American unless you work in the medical field or marry a Canadian and pop out a few kids plus also work in the medical field so I'd look elsewhere with your qualifications. I have friends who lived there for a decade, married to citizens before they got anything past an employer sponsored work visa. Just not the nurses.
posted by fshgrl at 9:19 PM on April 7, 2017 [1 favorite]


The problem with Canada is that any city where you could reasonably hope to get a professional job as a statistician or librarian (say, a law librarian; libraries are underfunded and are little better than retail in Canada as a career) is wildly overpriced in terms of housing. This includes Victoria (probably the nicest place to live in all of Canada) and Vancouver. Calgary has cheaper housing prices but the unemployment rate there is nearly 9 per cent. Edmonton is an option, but you mentioned that adjusting to winter might be tough.

I am also curious about why you think Canadian politics are better. Politics in Canada is just different, but we have our own problems. We're not always that "nice" country you hear about so much.
posted by My Dad at 9:23 PM on April 7, 2017 [4 favorites]


Urban Canada is frightfully expensive - especially given the pay disparity in most sectors. Montreal or Halifax may be exceptions.

Is your statistician partner currently in academia, para-academia, insurance, engineering, or...?

PhD level epidemiologists are staff-level positions at all of the major hospitals here. Long shot - see if there are any of those in a Vancouver suburb (Richmond, Burnaby, North Vancouver, West Vancouver) and apply for them. The pay is enough for the COL, but unless the other partner is bringing in about the same, detached home ownership is out of the question and owning a decent condo's going to be a pain right now.

There's a lot of rural Canada and it can be as racist and ignorant as any community in the US. There's plenty of hideous racism against First Nations peoples.
posted by porpoise at 9:24 PM on April 7, 2017 [3 favorites]


There's plenty of hideous racism against First Nations peoples.

I used to work around rural and regional British Columbia. There are some nice towns with affordable real estate, but they are also deeply segregated. It's shocking.
posted by My Dad at 9:26 PM on April 7, 2017


Halifax isn't that cheap! And flying in and out of there is bananas. Why is flying so expensive in Canada anyway?
posted by fshgrl at 9:28 PM on April 7, 2017 [1 favorite]


(As you ponder kids and cost of living, check out Canada's maternity leave policy!)
posted by salvia at 11:01 PM on April 7, 2017 [1 favorite]


Best answer: So I don't want to dissuade you from thinking about Canada as an option. I like living here. But please don't go into this back up plan with the thought that it'll be easy or quick.

About housing affordability an Toronto, a recent article I was reading has a detached house in that market going at 1.1 million to get into a house. This has an effect on surrounding area as people are looking out to places as far as Hamilton, the KW and even London.

Rental market is also crazy with about a 1% vacancy rate.

Affordability in Canada goes beyond just housing. Take a look at Bell or Rogers and put together a package for internet, wireless and if you use it, cable. Just make sure to be sitting down first.

With eyes open, market research and networking, it is absolutely possible to move here and have a smooth transition. But we are not a silver bullet.

Good luck - sorry I don't have ideas on alternative locations.
posted by MandaSayGrr at 11:47 PM on April 7, 2017 [6 favorites]


Yeah, alas, the job landscape in Canada is tough....as is the cost of living, especially in Ontario. I was born and bred in Toronto, lived there for 20+ years, and have effectively been priced out of my hometown (plus, my industry is really insular in Canada and much bigger in the U.S.). My partner and I have had the "should we move to Canada?" talk several times since the election, as I could potentially sponsor him. Outlook never looks good, unless my parents were to give us their house...and even then we'd have a hard time both finding jobs. We're currently living in the U.S., about to move to a really progressive "blue" city that's on the same wavelength as Toronto, politically. The difference is healthcare and some aspects of urban systemic inequality (which still exists in Canada, just in different forms). We know a lot of librarians from Toronto--unfortunately they didn't find work until they moved into much smaller markets like Belleville or Fredericton or whatever, which might not be the political utopia you're searching for (though New Brunswick's pretty great). I also hear that hydro in Ontario is exorbitantly expensive now.

Sorry to be such a downer on Toronto. It's a beautiful city, but it's a tough one. That's not to say you shouldn't do it if you think you can swing it, but it might be worth considering just moving to a more liberal urban center in the U.S. or possibly another country. What about actual Scandinavian countries like Denmark, Norway, Sweden? Would it be significantly more difficult to shoot for one of those?

On the upside, Canada has Canada Day on July 1, so you'd get a 4th of July of sorts. In Ontario there are also fireworks on Victoria Day. And in B.C. there are fireworks on Halloween!
posted by Miss T.Horn at 12:54 AM on April 8, 2017 [1 favorite]


I have been living in Europe for 5 years now. First of all, I would rethink your idea that some places are going to be friendly to American immigrants, unless by "friendly" you mean: not actively passing laws to keep Americans out. As an American, you've got to prove to bureaucrats that you've got a legitimate reason to be in their country--just like everyone else does. When I take a number at the Foreigner's Office, I'm in line with people from all over the world. There isn't a special Americans-only line or a set of Americans-only rules.

So, I would focus your exit plans on a job search. If you can find one company that wants to hire one of you, then that's a big first step. In most places I've lived, that's not the last step though, because if a company wants to put a foreigner on a full-time contract with regular benefits, then a central government authority has to approve that decision before you get hired. So you could look into jobs in Germany, because they have a freelancer visa which doesn't require approval from the central government body.

If one of you gets hired, you may have the option to apply for a family-reunion visa to get the other person in-country with the other one. That application may require the one without the job to stay in the U.S. for a while though until the visa gets approved.
posted by colfax at 5:24 AM on April 8, 2017 [2 favorites]


Best answer: Canada uses a points system to determine eligibility for permanent residency, with the process described in detail on the Citizenship and Immigration Canada website. If you qualify based on the points and are not inadmissible (usually for criminal reasons), you will be granted permanent residency status. Processing time when we applied was something like 1.5 years. Once you have the permanent resident entry visa, you may immigrate without a job offer in hand. The other route is to be hired by a Canadian company, enter on a temporary work permit, and then go through the permanent residency application process from within Canada (you get extra points for having ongoing work experience in Canada).

We immigrated in 2005 via the job offer/work permit route and applied for permanent residency status a couple years after that. We live in Ottawa. We brought our two cats, for whom we needed vet certificates mainly stating that they were in good health and were immunized against rabies (as shown by a post-vaccination blood test). We are originally Californians and have adapted to the Ottawa winters reasonably well.

I have to echo ROU_Xenophobe about the Harper era -- that was some bad stuff, particularly if you worked in the public service or direct-government science. On the other hand, e.g., same-sex marriage had been finally settled in Canada a couple years before Harper became PM and he explicitly stated that it was not going to be put back on the table (to the displeasure of some of his back-benchers). Canadian history is also way more disturbing than you may have been led to believe growing up in America, particularly relations with the First Nations. All that being said, on the Monday after Trump's first travel ban we submitted our citizenship application.
posted by heatherlogan at 6:07 AM on April 8, 2017 [6 favorites]


Just wanted to add that your statistician spouse might possibly be interested in the actuarial profession in Canada. I'm not familiar with the field but there may be a job-title difference compared to the U.S.
posted by heatherlogan at 6:16 AM on April 8, 2017


In terms of countries that are actively "friendly" to Americans, there's the Netherlands which has the Dutch-American Friendship Treaty. Basically a special rule that means Americans can set up a business in the Netherlands, and the requirements are surprisingly minimal (a pretty small investment, and no requirement to learn Dutch).
posted by borsboom at 6:19 AM on April 8, 2017 [3 favorites]


Response by poster: Thank you for all the help so far.

Some minor clarifications:

1. I realize that Canadian politics are different, not "better." In some aspects though, Canada is much further along than the U.S. and although I know Harper was not great, I appreciate heatherlogan's point and ROU-xenophobe's point that there were some things that he wouldn't do.

2. Yes, by friendly to American immigrants I do mean not actively passing laws to keep Americans out. In the scenario that the U.S. administration passes one or more of our hard lines, I am very much aware that we would be immigrants, just like any other immigrant. We would not be looking to be expats in that event. We are looking for countries that have fewer hurdles to immigration. We realize it will be a tough process no matter what.

Thanks for discussing COL, employment possibilities and internet rates, as well as alternate cities, towns and countries. That is exactly the type of info we are looking for.

Please keep the answers coming!
posted by donut_princess at 7:43 AM on April 8, 2017 [1 favorite]


Maybe consider Germany?
posted by coberh at 7:51 AM on April 8, 2017 [2 favorites]


Have you considered moving to Winnipeg? It's a moderate sized, affordable (house prices are very low for Canada), liberal city. The weather is brutal, but you adjust. I'm a librarian, and while jobs are hard to find, there is not nearly the competition there would be for similar jobs in Ontario. Additionally, Statistics Canada has an office here and it is relatively easy to get an entry level position (telephone interviewer, no French required) and work your way up.
posted by toby_ann at 8:28 AM on April 8, 2017 [1 favorite]


although I know Harper was not great, I appreciate heatherlogan's point and ROU-xenophobe's point that there were some things that he wouldn't do.

Only for pragmatic reasons - he knew they'd distract from his goal of systematically dismantling the civic institutions and social democratic processes you admire. He was an ideological architect of a politician. But there are up and comers who are less careful, and whose beliefs unfortunately do enjoy a good amount of support, especially outside the (largely unaffordable) cities where the jobs (and competition) are - especially with Trumpism leaking everywhere. What we have is fragile, make no mistake. Trudeau (if he's being taken as a symbol and representative of "Canadian values") is an artifact of a particular and unusual moment of large-scale coordinated voting to get Harper out, for which plenty of people held their noses - there is lots of opposition to him on both the left and right. After he goes, we're going to have some much less gloriously liberal-seeming governance, I'd bet. And what I gather you appreciate about e.g. multicultural values etc. is mostly situated in 2.5 cities (the two in real estate bubbles, plus maybe 0.5 of one, but there aren't really jobs for Anglos there. Anglo = not fluently French, for job-finding purposes). As was mentioned in answers to my question on Canadian cities, which you might find useful, our mid-sized cities aren't like yours, there is no Canadian equivalent to Chicago (well, Toronto might be, some have said).

All that aside, if you think you have five years to plan an international move, and are serious about becoming attractive job-objects in most markets in the event of the near-total collapse of American society (assuming the fan the crap hit didn't disperse said crap *everywhere* and ruin *everything* for *everyone*, and that current labour market indicators will hold, which might be big assumptions), 2nd your partner transitioning to something in finance/financial services/actuary stuff, and maybe something in the knowledge "translation" or "exchange" or just the more human side of IT for you. And 2nd the smaller Canadian cities people mentioned.
posted by cotton dress sock at 9:07 AM on April 8, 2017 [1 favorite]


Ontario (and in particular Toronto) has a bit of a credentialism issue - there are slightly different norms here around graduate education (particularly for people in their 30s) and Ontario's universities award a disproportionate share of the country's graduate degrees. Your husband may have trouble finding a job commensurate with his experience because he "only has a BA/BSc" - a phrase you'd hear a lot of in Toronto.
posted by blerghamot at 11:47 AM on April 8, 2017 [2 favorites]


I don't have much more than those above have said... Begin by looking for work and looking in secondary or tertiary centres.

I don't think Canada is particularly better than the US, just different. The negative forces that are effecting change across the globe are here just as much as they are anywhere else you just hear about it less because how often do you hear about Canada on the US news? Our history and government are different, we have less people and we're mostly in a handful of cities along the edge of our border with the US. A lot of our problems are the same as yours but because of our differences, their outcomes just end up being a bit different than you. That being said and also having lived abroad and have traveled across the US, I still do prefer Canada but it is home and I'd have a hard time trading it in.

A friend of mine interviewed for a new job locally, he lives on the other side of the country, and his potential employers sent him this link as a bit of enticement which might get you thinking. I don't know how accurate it is but it is interesting to play with:

https://www.citii.io/
posted by Ashwagandha at 4:32 PM on April 11, 2017


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