Why do we want to believe in Paul the octopu
July 8, 2010 10:52 AM Subscribe
Why do we want to believe in Paul the octopus ( or the daily sun sign predictions )?
This question started troubling me after yesterday's match. When Spain won , the first thought that came to my head was " the damn octopus was right".
My question is why do we believe / hope that someone ( astrologers ) / something can predict the future , even though most of us are rational people and predicting the future seems to be illogical.
What is it in our brain which wires us to hope to believe in predictions? Is it because we believe that we control our future and we would like any information before events take place?
This question started troubling me after yesterday's match. When Spain won , the first thought that came to my head was " the damn octopus was right".
My question is why do we believe / hope that someone ( astrologers ) / something can predict the future , even though most of us are rational people and predicting the future seems to be illogical.
What is it in our brain which wires us to hope to believe in predictions? Is it because we believe that we control our future and we would like any information before events take place?
Is it because we believe that we control our future
That doesn't seem to make much sense as an explanation of why people believe in astrology. Quite the contrary: if astrologers know what's going to happen to you before it happens, that would seem to undermine your control over the future. To the extent that people strongly believe in the concept of destiny, that suggests they don't believe very strongly in free will.
posted by Jaltcoh at 10:58 AM on July 8, 2010
That doesn't seem to make much sense as an explanation of why people believe in astrology. Quite the contrary: if astrologers know what's going to happen to you before it happens, that would seem to undermine your control over the future. To the extent that people strongly believe in the concept of destiny, that suggests they don't believe very strongly in free will.
posted by Jaltcoh at 10:58 AM on July 8, 2010
Complete barstool philosophy: I don't think it's specifically about predicting the future so much as it's about demonstrating that there are forces and phenomena at play in the universe that are beyond our comprehension. I mean, if small magic (like tarot and precognisant ocotopi) functions, then maybe there is larger magic as well. Maybe there's a cosmic purpose to everything. Maybe there really is a God and we aren't so alone.
Admittedly, that's a lot of meaning to give to a footie-loving cephalopod. But still, I think that's where the general modern predilection for magic finds its root.
posted by 256 at 10:59 AM on July 8, 2010 [1 favorite]
Admittedly, that's a lot of meaning to give to a footie-loving cephalopod. But still, I think that's where the general modern predilection for magic finds its root.
posted by 256 at 10:59 AM on July 8, 2010 [1 favorite]
Some people need to have faith/hope/belief/whatever in something? You might as well ask why so many people believe in God.
posted by elsietheeel at 11:01 AM on July 8, 2010
posted by elsietheeel at 11:01 AM on July 8, 2010
Best answer: Magical thinking accounts for those who would not be described as rational by the more skeptical out there. Long story short, the human brain looks for connections and correlations and infers causes whether or not they are actually there. Though I can't remember exactly where just now, I recall reading that this is believed to be a trait which is beneficial to the survival of a species, up to a certain point. Once we start cutting out people's hearts to stop an eclipse from happening, it is perhaps a different story.
As far as why rational people pay attention to this sort of thing: Because it's interesting. Because reading about odd phenomena does not require a belief in it. Charles Fort is a good example of this, although he skirted the edges of credulous a spot much for my taste.
Now, as far as why folks would want to believe, that's really something that would likely have as many different responses as respondents. In my case, it plays out like this: I would dearly love to believe that a method exists for conversing with expired relatives of mine. If it exists, I want to find it. But - again in my case - such a thing would completely redefine my relationship with reality, and so the evidence would need to be really quite thorough. So far nothing has passed that test, and though I realistically don't expect that anything ever will, it'd be nice to imagine that one day it might.
posted by FAMOUS MONSTER at 11:04 AM on July 8, 2010
As far as why rational people pay attention to this sort of thing: Because it's interesting. Because reading about odd phenomena does not require a belief in it. Charles Fort is a good example of this, although he skirted the edges of credulous a spot much for my taste.
Now, as far as why folks would want to believe, that's really something that would likely have as many different responses as respondents. In my case, it plays out like this: I would dearly love to believe that a method exists for conversing with expired relatives of mine. If it exists, I want to find it. But - again in my case - such a thing would completely redefine my relationship with reality, and so the evidence would need to be really quite thorough. So far nothing has passed that test, and though I realistically don't expect that anything ever will, it'd be nice to imagine that one day it might.
posted by FAMOUS MONSTER at 11:04 AM on July 8, 2010
My question is why do we believe / hope that someone ( astrologers ) / something can predict the future , even though most of us are rational people and predicting the future seems to be illogical.
Because the world is illogical and unfair and we'd like the universe to be more ordered and predictable. We want a way to figure out the system so we can game and gain control over everything we don't have control over, i.e. everything.
posted by new brand day at 11:05 AM on July 8, 2010
Because the world is illogical and unfair and we'd like the universe to be more ordered and predictable. We want a way to figure out the system so we can game and gain control over everything we don't have control over, i.e. everything.
posted by new brand day at 11:05 AM on July 8, 2010
Derren Brown did an interesting piece on something similar, about his 100% guaranteed system of picking the winner in horse races - The System.
posted by knapah at 11:10 AM on July 8, 2010
posted by knapah at 11:10 AM on July 8, 2010
On a 50-50 guess, Paul has been right 10 out of 12 times. But there are only 12 observations -- two lucky streaks, one of 3 right and one of 6.
Note also that in most cases he picks the same team (Germany).
Then again, he "learned" that Spain beats Germany, having gotten it wrong in 2008.
We want to believe, of course, because we want to believe. Also, I think people tend to hype up small successes and discard predictive failure. So lucky streaks take on extra emotional weight and eventually the shine of "magic".
posted by chavenet at 11:11 AM on July 8, 2010
Note also that in most cases he picks the same team (Germany).
Then again, he "learned" that Spain beats Germany, having gotten it wrong in 2008.
We want to believe, of course, because we want to believe. Also, I think people tend to hype up small successes and discard predictive failure. So lucky streaks take on extra emotional weight and eventually the shine of "magic".
posted by chavenet at 11:11 AM on July 8, 2010
our brains are very, very heavily slanted towards pattern recognition
I think this is it. If you think of the word "duck," turn on the TV, and then hear the word "spaghetti," that probably won't register. There's no pattern to duck-spaghetti. Yet that non-pattern is what happens most of the time. Most of the time, whatever word your thinking of is not the word you hear when you turn on TV.
But if just once in a blue moon, you think, "I'd like to eat some duck tonight," while turning on the TV, and, the first thing you hear is, "Duck duck goose time, kids," it seems remarkable. I think that "wow" feeling is your brain detecting a pattern. It's a totally useless pattern, but it feel profound anyway.
It's pretty easy to hypothesize about WHY we've evolved to detect and notice patterns. Often they are important. (Every time I tease the tiger, he tries to bite me.) But this leads to a lot of false positives.
If you're thinking "duck" and the TV says "bird," even that might feel like a match. We REALLY want to see patterns. And we think the few patterns we see are a sign of something -- but that the many, many, many patterns we don't see aren't a sign of anything.
posted by grumblebee at 11:17 AM on July 8, 2010
I think this is it. If you think of the word "duck," turn on the TV, and then hear the word "spaghetti," that probably won't register. There's no pattern to duck-spaghetti. Yet that non-pattern is what happens most of the time. Most of the time, whatever word your thinking of is not the word you hear when you turn on TV.
But if just once in a blue moon, you think, "I'd like to eat some duck tonight," while turning on the TV, and, the first thing you hear is, "Duck duck goose time, kids," it seems remarkable. I think that "wow" feeling is your brain detecting a pattern. It's a totally useless pattern, but it feel profound anyway.
It's pretty easy to hypothesize about WHY we've evolved to detect and notice patterns. Often they are important. (Every time I tease the tiger, he tries to bite me.) But this leads to a lot of false positives.
If you're thinking "duck" and the TV says "bird," even that might feel like a match. We REALLY want to see patterns. And we think the few patterns we see are a sign of something -- but that the many, many, many patterns we don't see aren't a sign of anything.
posted by grumblebee at 11:17 AM on July 8, 2010
There is also the appeal of the easy. Why work for 20 years when you could snap your fingers and have money for nothing? The idea that there is something else at work keeps alive the fantasy that there may be a shortcut to the things we want, or even just some additional influence that we may exert - that we may be less powerless.
Everyone wants to believe there could be a way for things to work out for us better than the mundane would lead us to expect.
posted by -harlequin- at 11:23 AM on July 8, 2010
Everyone wants to believe there could be a way for things to work out for us better than the mundane would lead us to expect.
posted by -harlequin- at 11:23 AM on July 8, 2010
Belief in astrology is also driven by a desire to have something that is yours. The forms of magic that demonstrably work have been codified into unobtainably detailed sciences that require decades of study, and without that study, you can't hold your own in that sphere - you say something, and the expert can contradict you, cite a bunch of stuff you can't parse, and in the eyes of everyone you're just wrong. It's inaccessible, it can never be yours.
You can never play on that field.
Astrology on the other hand, is a field you can play on. This is big.
It's also like creationism and climate change denial - for some people it gives them something that the "experts" can't take away from them, because it rejects their expertise. It makes you the plucky little guy, the holdout against the establishment. The one who sees deeper than others.
It gives you the trappings of expertise, it makes you special, but without having to put in the work and effort and blood and tears that is required to be special in endeavors with demonstrable results, where it's far more obvious when you're not achieving anything.
Astrology appeals on all sorts of levels, it strikes all kinds of human chords. They're generally not the chords that lead to greatness, but maybe for some they at least lead to happiness.
posted by -harlequin- at 11:38 AM on July 8, 2010 [1 favorite]
You can never play on that field.
Astrology on the other hand, is a field you can play on. This is big.
It's also like creationism and climate change denial - for some people it gives them something that the "experts" can't take away from them, because it rejects their expertise. It makes you the plucky little guy, the holdout against the establishment. The one who sees deeper than others.
It gives you the trappings of expertise, it makes you special, but without having to put in the work and effort and blood and tears that is required to be special in endeavors with demonstrable results, where it's far more obvious when you're not achieving anything.
Astrology appeals on all sorts of levels, it strikes all kinds of human chords. They're generally not the chords that lead to greatness, but maybe for some they at least lead to happiness.
posted by -harlequin- at 11:38 AM on July 8, 2010 [1 favorite]
To turn the question around: since it's just entertainment, why would someone feel troubled at being entertained in this way?
posted by gimonca at 11:40 AM on July 8, 2010
posted by gimonca at 11:40 AM on July 8, 2010
Superstition works, kind of. The use of lucky charms, etc, gives people a sense of "self-efficacy", of control over their environments and outcomes, etc, and this actually does serve to deliver better outcomes. It's not a huge leap from there to speculate that we want to believe in oracles, psychics etcetera because they represent some hope of controlling the uncontrollable or knowing the unknowable, thereby delivering psychological benefits.
posted by game warden to the events rhino at 11:43 AM on July 8, 2010
posted by game warden to the events rhino at 11:43 AM on July 8, 2010
Why People Believe Weird Things is a book on this subject that is supposed to be good. Here is a TED talk by the author on the subject.
posted by ManInSuit at 11:43 AM on July 8, 2010 [3 favorites]
posted by ManInSuit at 11:43 AM on July 8, 2010 [3 favorites]
I'll nth the pattern thing, but I think it goes deeper than that. I remember a while back when the UK lottery started. You had to pick six numbers from 1-49 (I'm guessing it's still the same, I just haven't lived in the UK for a long time). Most people spread out the numbers over the range, a single digit or two one in the teens, a couple in the twenties etc. I remember reading somewhere that there weren't that many in the 40s or the 30s as people tend to pick dates (birthdays, anniversaries) and of course 3 and 7 were popular too for obvious reasons. I would imagine that very few people would pick 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 even though that combination of numbers has to be as likely as any other. Why? Because we like patterns AND we want them to mean something.
When you think about Paul the octopus it's really not that hard to get a 50/50 bet right several times in a row, but, after a few times, it becomes really amazing even though it's still the same 50/50 chance each time. It's the classic gambler's fallacy. Lastly, I think he gets bonus points because he's a octopus. I, for one, welcome our new cephalopod overlord.
posted by ob at 11:48 AM on July 8, 2010
When you think about Paul the octopus it's really not that hard to get a 50/50 bet right several times in a row, but, after a few times, it becomes really amazing even though it's still the same 50/50 chance each time. It's the classic gambler's fallacy. Lastly, I think he gets bonus points because he's a octopus. I, for one, welcome our new cephalopod overlord.
posted by ob at 11:48 AM on July 8, 2010
Best answer: Paul The Octupus is a form of divination: using magic to know the unknown. Other common examples are horoscopes, dowsing rods, magic 8-balls, numerology, tarot cards, etc. This is a major topic in Anthropology of Religion and there are, I'm sure, piles of books written on the topic. The basic reason for divination, as I recall from an undergrad course in this topic, is to ease the distress caused by the unknown, and provide a way forward in the face of an unknown future.
Let me speculate for a minute about the octopus. I am going to claim we collectively believe that there are gods (or a god, but probably not the Judeo-Christian God) who control the random unknown events in our lives. "Lady Luck", for example, can make you win at a casino. Groundhogs can predict the end of winter. The weather gods can ruin your vacation. And so on. We like to believe in the gods because a random world is uncontrollable and frightening.
We thus accept that there is a World Cup god, or gods, which knows the outcome of the matches, and perhaps has the ability to control them to a certain extent. We like to imagine that the result of the World Cup is ordained and full of meaning -- that a team is destined to win -- and that the contest is not subject to the whims of random chance. We search for signs of this god and we observe that it or they have provided us with an oracle - Paul. We celebrate Paul because he strengthens the mystical power of the event.
posted by PercussivePaul at 11:58 AM on July 8, 2010
Let me speculate for a minute about the octopus. I am going to claim we collectively believe that there are gods (or a god, but probably not the Judeo-Christian God) who control the random unknown events in our lives. "Lady Luck", for example, can make you win at a casino. Groundhogs can predict the end of winter. The weather gods can ruin your vacation. And so on. We like to believe in the gods because a random world is uncontrollable and frightening.
We thus accept that there is a World Cup god, or gods, which knows the outcome of the matches, and perhaps has the ability to control them to a certain extent. We like to imagine that the result of the World Cup is ordained and full of meaning -- that a team is destined to win -- and that the contest is not subject to the whims of random chance. We search for signs of this god and we observe that it or they have provided us with an oracle - Paul. We celebrate Paul because he strengthens the mystical power of the event.
posted by PercussivePaul at 11:58 AM on July 8, 2010
To elaborate, imagine if Germany won the tournament and Paul had predicted every victory. The German victory would then have been destined from the start and full of meaning and significance.
posted by PercussivePaul at 12:00 PM on July 8, 2010
posted by PercussivePaul at 12:00 PM on July 8, 2010
Does anyone really believe in Paul though? It struck me as more of a cute novelty that came true by chance than anything, and I get the impression (and hope) that other people feel the same way.
posted by elder18 at 12:04 PM on July 8, 2010
posted by elder18 at 12:04 PM on July 8, 2010
Why People Believe Weird Things is a book on this subject that is supposed to be good.
It really isn't, though. It's juvenile. "Demon-Haunted World" is a lot better.
To add my own contribution to this pretty much completed thread: Plate o shrimp.
posted by shii at 12:07 PM on July 8, 2010
It really isn't, though. It's juvenile. "Demon-Haunted World" is a lot better.
To add my own contribution to this pretty much completed thread: Plate o shrimp.
posted by shii at 12:07 PM on July 8, 2010
Because octopuses are awesome and anything that contributes to their magical awesomeness and makes them more awesome is awesome.
Or, the anthropomorphization of cool creatures and the illusion of divination makes for great fun fantasy and stays crunchy in milk. Paul is an Octupus Who Sees the Future. Awesome!
Also, Cthulhu.
posted by Cat Pie Hurts at 12:23 PM on July 8, 2010 [2 favorites]
Or, the anthropomorphization of cool creatures and the illusion of divination makes for great fun fantasy and stays crunchy in milk. Paul is an Octupus Who Sees the Future. Awesome!
Also, Cthulhu.
posted by Cat Pie Hurts at 12:23 PM on July 8, 2010 [2 favorites]
I think it's because of anxiety and need for some sense of control and help in decisionmaking when there's nothing else to go on.
posted by anniecat at 12:39 PM on July 8, 2010
posted by anniecat at 12:39 PM on July 8, 2010
Because seeing things that are out of the norm are interesting.
posted by wongcorgi at 1:58 PM on July 8, 2010
posted by wongcorgi at 1:58 PM on July 8, 2010
My question is why do we believe / hope that someone ( astrologers ) / something can predict the future , even though most of us are rational people and predicting the future seems to be illogical.
There's nothing intrinsically illogical or irrational about the idea of there being a way to predict the future. We just don't know whether there is a way, or what that way is.
Also, people do a lot of intuitive reasoning, often to good effect. Sometimes you might "predict the future" when you get a bad feeling about a situation, without consciously understanding exactly why you're getting that feeling.
The universe is a more complicated place than we understand, and, as Arthur C. Clarke says, a more complicated place than we can understand. Events are connected to one another in all sorts of untraceable ways. Information, much of it untracked, is everywhere. The scores of sporting events do not occur at random, and people who are born in the same part of the year actually do have similar trajectories in some respects because (for example) they have a maturity level more in common with each other than with others in their primary school class, etc. (see Gladwell for more on that).
Basically, as far as you know, that octopus is God, and it created this universe as a practical joke on you because of something that you did to it in a previous incarnation.
posted by bingo at 2:08 PM on July 8, 2010
There's nothing intrinsically illogical or irrational about the idea of there being a way to predict the future. We just don't know whether there is a way, or what that way is.
Also, people do a lot of intuitive reasoning, often to good effect. Sometimes you might "predict the future" when you get a bad feeling about a situation, without consciously understanding exactly why you're getting that feeling.
The universe is a more complicated place than we understand, and, as Arthur C. Clarke says, a more complicated place than we can understand. Events are connected to one another in all sorts of untraceable ways. Information, much of it untracked, is everywhere. The scores of sporting events do not occur at random, and people who are born in the same part of the year actually do have similar trajectories in some respects because (for example) they have a maturity level more in common with each other than with others in their primary school class, etc. (see Gladwell for more on that).
Basically, as far as you know, that octopus is God, and it created this universe as a practical joke on you because of something that you did to it in a previous incarnation.
posted by bingo at 2:08 PM on July 8, 2010
I was reading an article in the past week or so (which of course I can't find now) about why people believe in conspiracy theories, where the author suggested that a major reason was that people prefer certainty to uncertainty, even if the certainty is illusory. The octopus or horoscopes aren't conspiracy theories, of course, but the same reason could apply.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 2:58 PM on July 8, 2010
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 2:58 PM on July 8, 2010
The idea that a psychic octopus can correctly predict the outcome of soccer games is ridiculous, but amusing. It is actually a combination of two wildly improbable ideas. First, that psychic power can correctly predict the future, and second, that an octopus would have any knowledge of or interest in human soccer games. Even if there actually was such a thing as a psychic octopus, there is no apparent reason why such a creature would concern itself with soccer. This is different from using the actions of a groundhog to make predictions about when winter is going to end, since at least the weather has some relevance to groundhogs (although there is still no explanation of how a groundhog could predict the weather).
I think that this is just a form of intellectual playfulness. Given the vast popularity of the Harry Potter series, clearly people have a taste for fantasy. I doubt that many people actually believe that Paul the octopus has the power to predict the outcome of sporting events. Those who do have that belief would just be people who do not understand how to think in a critical manner and how to assess probabilities.
However, there are lots of other forms of mysticism that people take much more seriously. Many people believe that astrology is a legitimate technique for accurately predicting the future. Since the universe is full of things that most people do not understand, as well as some things that nobody fully understands, it is very easy to imagine that even though there is no scientific mechanism which would account for the supposed influence of stars and planets upon the details of human lives, that doesn't necessarily mean that no such mechanism exists. This is stupendously unlikely, but most people do not have enough scientific knowledge to really understand why that is.
posted by grizzled at 7:50 AM on July 9, 2010
I think that this is just a form of intellectual playfulness. Given the vast popularity of the Harry Potter series, clearly people have a taste for fantasy. I doubt that many people actually believe that Paul the octopus has the power to predict the outcome of sporting events. Those who do have that belief would just be people who do not understand how to think in a critical manner and how to assess probabilities.
However, there are lots of other forms of mysticism that people take much more seriously. Many people believe that astrology is a legitimate technique for accurately predicting the future. Since the universe is full of things that most people do not understand, as well as some things that nobody fully understands, it is very easy to imagine that even though there is no scientific mechanism which would account for the supposed influence of stars and planets upon the details of human lives, that doesn't necessarily mean that no such mechanism exists. This is stupendously unlikely, but most people do not have enough scientific knowledge to really understand why that is.
posted by grizzled at 7:50 AM on July 9, 2010
So was my three-year-old daughter. In fact, she was right about every single game she watched. She would look at the teams for about 15 seconds, choose a color of jersey to root for, and her team invariably won. She called Spain today after three minutes of play. I shoulda called a bookie.
posted by KathrynT at 3:52 PM on July 11, 2010
posted by KathrynT at 3:52 PM on July 11, 2010
This thread is closed to new comments.
posted by KathrynT at 10:56 AM on July 8, 2010