Downfall.
November 22, 2008 8:37 AM Subscribe
With all the talk of gloom and doom, what, if anything, are you doing to prepare for the collapse of the system as we know it? And what future commodities would you invest in?
This post was deleted for the following reason: This has been asked in other ways a number of times and is pretty chatfiltery. You're welcome to BBQ it if you like, but I think this should probably go. -- cortex
Response by poster: I own a nice house and my own business here in Toronto. My debt isn't THAT high and for some reason, business is good. Having said that, we are not immune here in Canada. I have thought to sell EVERYTHING before shit goes down, return to the Third World, and get back to the basics. Learn how to grow my own food, build my own house, etc. As Pierre Trudeau once famously said, “Living next to the U.S. is like sleeping with an elephant. You keep getting flattened every time it tries to satisfy itself.”
posted by gman at 8:59 AM on November 22, 2008
posted by gman at 8:59 AM on November 22, 2008
Response by poster: Fuzzy Skinner - The system MAY not collapse, but shouldn't we be prepared? With the personal outsourcing of everything we don't specialize in, most people will be pretty fuckin' useless...
posted by gman at 9:01 AM on November 22, 2008
posted by gman at 9:01 AM on November 22, 2008
If "the system" is really going to collapse, I would invest in self-sufficiency. That is, a little place far away from the hungry hordes, enough land to grow crops to feed yourself and loved ones, some weapons to keep people from taking what's yours.
You may or may not also be interested in this book (pdf) or this manifesto.
PS: And if you want something to literally invest in, you should pick something that will be in high demand but in zero supply after the high-tech industrial infrastructure collapses. In a word, you should hoard antibiotics.
But don't do it if you're in eastern Massachusetts - that's going to be my market!
posted by Salvor Hardin at 9:06 AM on November 22, 2008 [2 favorites]
You may or may not also be interested in this book (pdf) or this manifesto.
PS: And if you want something to literally invest in, you should pick something that will be in high demand but in zero supply after the high-tech industrial infrastructure collapses. In a word, you should hoard antibiotics.
But don't do it if you're in eastern Massachusetts - that's going to be my market!
posted by Salvor Hardin at 9:06 AM on November 22, 2008 [2 favorites]
I go with guns, ammo and some directions on how to manage slave labor.
posted by bkeene12 at 9:14 AM on November 22, 2008
posted by bkeene12 at 9:14 AM on November 22, 2008
Response by poster: I go with guns, ammo and some directions on how to manage slave labor.
And you're not alone. Even if shit doesn't collapse, I expect crime rates to increase exponentially.
posted by gman at 9:19 AM on November 22, 2008
And you're not alone. Even if shit doesn't collapse, I expect crime rates to increase exponentially.
posted by gman at 9:19 AM on November 22, 2008
I'll be frank. Survivalist preparation is essentially useless. You can't possibly stock enough food to last you for years... and if you do, you'll be hard pressed to defend it. If we get into a Mad Max scenario, well, a revolver and one bullet is an inexpensive investment.
posted by sonic meat machine at 9:23 AM on November 22, 2008
posted by sonic meat machine at 9:23 AM on November 22, 2008
Fuzzy Skinner - The system MAY not collapse, but shouldn't we be prepared?
You asked "...what, if anything, are you doing to prepare..."
I'm doing what I always try to do: live within my means, don't gamble my future, etc.
posted by Fuzzy Skinner at 9:23 AM on November 22, 2008
You asked "...what, if anything, are you doing to prepare..."
I'm doing what I always try to do: live within my means, don't gamble my future, etc.
posted by Fuzzy Skinner at 9:23 AM on November 22, 2008
I think some of your premises are flawed. Why would it be better to be living in a poorer, more densely-populated country that lacks an effective public health system, modern infrastructure, and productive agriculture, in the event that the zombie wars come and society collapses? Global warming will benefit Canada and hurt much of the global south; the US is unlikely to invade Canada and turn its population into slaves on our vast new northern plantation; and the melting arctic ice is providing Canada with an entire new open coastline and control over global shipping channels. Right now you are in a pretty good place, whereas living in Nicaragua or Benin may provide a rather different and less pleasing experience in a changing world.
So sure, sell your house and become a subsistence farmer if you want -- it won't harm anyone other than perhaps yourself (and probably you'll be happier for it, if poorer and more sunburned). And I think everyone should know how to build a house and grow food, absolutely.
But one prepares for future problems not by becoming a rugged individualist, but by forming close reciprocal connections with friends and neighbors. You can't do everything on your own, and certainly you can't provide your own security as well as all modes of production. (As an experiment, try digging a ditch while carrying a ten-pound rifle, and while keeping close watch on your surroundings, alone. It's not quite impossible, but it's not particularly pleasant or easy, either.) A community, however, can provide all of that and more.
When the zombie wars come, and I'm out looking for people to kidnap and butcher in my human food processing center, I'll be looking for isolated, easy-to-grab homesteaders. A well-armed and -organized community, with its own farm production, health clinic, and school, is not easy pickings and I'll leave them alone, or just offer to sell them homesteader steaks to supplement their diets.
Clearly I'm joking a bit here, but the lesson from places that have had pretty serious collapses (eg Somalia, Iraq, Congo, etc) is that the best security comes from tight-knit hyperlocal organizing, combined with political dealmaking, control of territory, and affiliations with local militias. Living alone in the hills sounds great in a novel, but is a pretty tough way to survive in real life.
posted by Forktine at 9:26 AM on November 22, 2008 [1 favorite]
So sure, sell your house and become a subsistence farmer if you want -- it won't harm anyone other than perhaps yourself (and probably you'll be happier for it, if poorer and more sunburned). And I think everyone should know how to build a house and grow food, absolutely.
But one prepares for future problems not by becoming a rugged individualist, but by forming close reciprocal connections with friends and neighbors. You can't do everything on your own, and certainly you can't provide your own security as well as all modes of production. (As an experiment, try digging a ditch while carrying a ten-pound rifle, and while keeping close watch on your surroundings, alone. It's not quite impossible, but it's not particularly pleasant or easy, either.) A community, however, can provide all of that and more.
When the zombie wars come, and I'm out looking for people to kidnap and butcher in my human food processing center, I'll be looking for isolated, easy-to-grab homesteaders. A well-armed and -organized community, with its own farm production, health clinic, and school, is not easy pickings and I'll leave them alone, or just offer to sell them homesteader steaks to supplement their diets.
Clearly I'm joking a bit here, but the lesson from places that have had pretty serious collapses (eg Somalia, Iraq, Congo, etc) is that the best security comes from tight-knit hyperlocal organizing, combined with political dealmaking, control of territory, and affiliations with local militias. Living alone in the hills sounds great in a novel, but is a pretty tough way to survive in real life.
posted by Forktine at 9:26 AM on November 22, 2008 [1 favorite]
Response by poster: sonic meat machine - Survivalist preparation is essentially useless??!?? This sounds like a fast food mentality. What about learning how to grow your own food? Hunt? Build your own house? Live in the middle of butt-fuck-nowhere?
posted by gman at 9:28 AM on November 22, 2008
posted by gman at 9:28 AM on November 22, 2008
I am paying off debt, cleaning out my basement, weaving strong local community, and most of all declining to be terrified. Oh, and we're thinking about getting some chickens.
posted by ottereroticist at 9:31 AM on November 22, 2008
posted by ottereroticist at 9:31 AM on November 22, 2008
And you're not alone. Even if shit doesn't collapse, I expect crime rates to increase exponentially.
The majority of those increased gun sales are not happening because people seriously expect a societal collapse -- they are because people expect tougher gun control laws, so are buying guns before Obama takes office. Guns are not about to be banned in the US (good fucking luck trying that here), but certainly incremental restrictions are likely with the new administration -- longer waiting periods, elements of the Clinton-era "assault weapons" restrictions, etc.
So if you've been considering buying a gun anyway, right now might make sense (except that prices are high because of the increased demand; I expect both to fall once Obama takes office and it becomes clear that he is not planning to personally seize everyone's firearms). But a serious predictor of societal collapse, this is not.
posted by Forktine at 9:34 AM on November 22, 2008
The majority of those increased gun sales are not happening because people seriously expect a societal collapse -- they are because people expect tougher gun control laws, so are buying guns before Obama takes office. Guns are not about to be banned in the US (good fucking luck trying that here), but certainly incremental restrictions are likely with the new administration -- longer waiting periods, elements of the Clinton-era "assault weapons" restrictions, etc.
So if you've been considering buying a gun anyway, right now might make sense (except that prices are high because of the increased demand; I expect both to fall once Obama takes office and it becomes clear that he is not planning to personally seize everyone's firearms). But a serious predictor of societal collapse, this is not.
posted by Forktine at 9:34 AM on November 22, 2008
Response by poster: Forktine - but I have lived in a very rural community (population 500) in Lao (population 6.5 million) and began this whole process before unexpected circumstances turned shit upside down on me. And the "close reciprocal connections with friends and neighbors" I had over there was nothing I could ever imagine experiencing over here. The Laotians have been living, more or less, communally for a very long time (until materialism and the flow of useless information reared their ugly heads)
And for how long do you think this "public health system, modern infrastructure, and productive agriculture" will be "effective"?
posted by gman at 9:36 AM on November 22, 2008
And for how long do you think this "public health system, modern infrastructure, and productive agriculture" will be "effective"?
posted by gman at 9:36 AM on November 22, 2008
If we're talking about a prolonged period of hard times, after which society will likely be the same or similar to what exists now, then just invest in/horde what would be good to have now: money. Spend as little as you can, save all you can. Invest when the market is at or near bottom, but only to the extent you can and still have plenty of cash reserves to live on.
If we're talking about a wholesale collapse of society, then:
posted by elfgirl at 9:37 AM on November 22, 2008
If we're talking about a wholesale collapse of society, then:
- Learn how to provide your own food, including becoming familiar with growing and hunting seasons around your area (if you're staying there). Learn how to preserve food.
- Have some sort of human powered transportation, the longer range the better. Learn how to maintain it, including making your own replacement parts, if necessary.
- Learn basic medical care. Reading about local/regional folk remedies that have been shown to actually work would also be a good idea since the ingredients for those things are likely to still be available if the medical infrastructure breaks down.
- Weapons, preferably firearms. If firearms, learn how to make your own ammo. During the recent gas shortage in the US, one of the first things that happened was people stealing gas from others. The immediate reaction for a wholesale shortage of everything, everywhere will be similar.
posted by elfgirl at 9:37 AM on November 22, 2008
Everyone forgets water purification, in addition to guns and canned goods.
That being said, this is generally ridiculous survivalist fantasy. The "system" is not going to collapse. And "shouldn't we be prepared?" is a statement that doesn't take into account the costs of "preparations", both in terms of explicit financial outlays to fortify your bunker, and in opportunity costs of doing something else, like, getting on with life.
posted by chengjih at 9:37 AM on November 22, 2008
That being said, this is generally ridiculous survivalist fantasy. The "system" is not going to collapse. And "shouldn't we be prepared?" is a statement that doesn't take into account the costs of "preparations", both in terms of explicit financial outlays to fortify your bunker, and in opportunity costs of doing something else, like, getting on with life.
posted by chengjih at 9:37 AM on November 22, 2008
Survivalist preparation is essentially useless??!?? This sounds like a fast food mentality. What about learning how to grow your own food? Hunt? Build your own house? Live in the middle of butt-fuck-nowhere?
There are a bunch of countries in the last decade or so that have had pretty serious societal collapses. I mentioned Iraq and the Congo; you could easily lengthen that list. Can you name any of them where the individualist/survivalist strategy turned out to be extraordinarily effective? Has it ever (outside of fiction) been an effective strategy for anything other than very unusual cases?
Growing your own food is, again, a good skill to have, as is housebuilding -- but to be effective in a large-scale disaster they both really require a community context. What do you do, living alone, when three pickups full of armed men show up at your new house, next to your new field? Might you have other options if you were part of a larger community, based on mutual reliance and support?
posted by Forktine at 9:40 AM on November 22, 2008 [1 favorite]
There are a bunch of countries in the last decade or so that have had pretty serious societal collapses. I mentioned Iraq and the Congo; you could easily lengthen that list. Can you name any of them where the individualist/survivalist strategy turned out to be extraordinarily effective? Has it ever (outside of fiction) been an effective strategy for anything other than very unusual cases?
Growing your own food is, again, a good skill to have, as is housebuilding -- but to be effective in a large-scale disaster they both really require a community context. What do you do, living alone, when three pickups full of armed men show up at your new house, next to your new field? Might you have other options if you were part of a larger community, based on mutual reliance and support?
posted by Forktine at 9:40 AM on November 22, 2008 [1 favorite]
Survivalist preparation is essentially useless??!?? This sounds like a fast food mentality. What about learning how to grow your own food? Hunt? Build your own house?
I think sonic meat machine meant: even if you look back at e.g. the great depression, you don't see a total collapse of society. Most people just don't think the current economic situation is going to lead to a world where you have to grow and/or hunt your own food.
If as a hobby you want to learn to smelt iron and blacksmith basic tools, more power to you! But if you are learning those skills because you expect to need them to survive, well, you might be disappointed.
posted by Mike1024 at 9:54 AM on November 22, 2008
I think sonic meat machine meant: even if you look back at e.g. the great depression, you don't see a total collapse of society. Most people just don't think the current economic situation is going to lead to a world where you have to grow and/or hunt your own food.
If as a hobby you want to learn to smelt iron and blacksmith basic tools, more power to you! But if you are learning those skills because you expect to need them to survive, well, you might be disappointed.
posted by Mike1024 at 9:54 AM on November 22, 2008
The system MAY not collapse, but shouldn't we be prepared?
Prepared for what? Escaping the zombie apocalypse? Surviving nuclear holocaust?
The problem with your question (other than it being tediously close to chat filter) is that you're saying, "X may not happen, what should I do to prepare for X?"
Since you seem to have trouble articulating a meaningful quesiton, allow me to help:
What if the "system collapses" - what would that look like? Life in a FEMA trailer, fall out shelter, or cave?
What do you really need to know to survive in such a world? How to fill out paper work (for the trailer,) how to can your own food (for the fall out shelter,) and how to set a broken bone or restart agriculture after a nuclear war - in the event you find yourself in a cave.
So which of those is likely? How far would a collapse, collapse?
Despite the ravings of the lunatic fringe right (nuclear holocaust) and the imaginative left (peak oil) neither of these scenarios seem likely in our life time. More than likely however is an economic collapse that has us living poorer lives. In such a situation we wouldn't do much different from what our ancestors did during the Great Depression: return to local farming and the like.
So, buy up a book or two on backyard farming, identify your local food co-ops (and volunteer to "make connections") and then relax.
One other bit of advice: the world will always need brewers and casket makers...
posted by wfrgms at 10:02 AM on November 22, 2008
Prepared for what? Escaping the zombie apocalypse? Surviving nuclear holocaust?
The problem with your question (other than it being tediously close to chat filter) is that you're saying, "X may not happen, what should I do to prepare for X?"
Since you seem to have trouble articulating a meaningful quesiton, allow me to help:
What if the "system collapses" - what would that look like? Life in a FEMA trailer, fall out shelter, or cave?
What do you really need to know to survive in such a world? How to fill out paper work (for the trailer,) how to can your own food (for the fall out shelter,) and how to set a broken bone or restart agriculture after a nuclear war - in the event you find yourself in a cave.
So which of those is likely? How far would a collapse, collapse?
Despite the ravings of the lunatic fringe right (nuclear holocaust) and the imaginative left (peak oil) neither of these scenarios seem likely in our life time. More than likely however is an economic collapse that has us living poorer lives. In such a situation we wouldn't do much different from what our ancestors did during the Great Depression: return to local farming and the like.
So, buy up a book or two on backyard farming, identify your local food co-ops (and volunteer to "make connections") and then relax.
One other bit of advice: the world will always need brewers and casket makers...
posted by wfrgms at 10:02 AM on November 22, 2008
My husband pointed out I'd forgotten: sink a well.
posted by elfgirl at 10:04 AM on November 22, 2008
posted by elfgirl at 10:04 AM on November 22, 2008
If you can get past the impossible scenario that sets up S. M. Stirling's "Change" trilogy, he gets into some excellent descriptions of how a society would operate should there be a sudden lack of a transportation network that moves our food supplies around the country. Basically, most people die and the remaining 10% set up huge farm/camps where the knowledge of farming your own food supplies is more valuable than anything else. The knowledge of natural geography -- how rivers, streams and lakes operate to bring fresh water to a farm-- is also incredibly important and land that has this kind of geography becomes very valuable and worth fighting for because it's essentially the only long-term way to survive, i.e. grow your own food supply and then defend it.
posted by camworld at 10:05 AM on November 22, 2008
posted by camworld at 10:05 AM on November 22, 2008
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This thread is closed to new comments.
But the age-old wisdom still applies: live within your means, don't gamble your future, don't take on optional debt, enjoy your life, love your neighbors, treat others how you would like to be treated, stay healthy, eat right, brush three times a day, get a good night's sleep, be patient with the infirm and the elderly, for someday you may be one of them.
posted by Fuzzy Skinner at 8:54 AM on November 22, 2008 [6 favorites]