Predict the unpredictable NCAA Basketball Tournament

March 19, 2008 5:12 PM

NCAA Basketball Tournament office pool. Do you have any strategies and tips to help me win mine?

Games predicted deeper into the tournament are weighted heavier in the scoring. There will be about 20 entries. I know this is the most unpredictable sporting event around. Do you have any strategies that have helped you in the past?

posted by clearly to Sports, Hobbies, & Recreation (7 answers total)

Everyone likes to be adventurous and take risks, because it's more interesting and fun. If you want to win, lean more conservative. Especially avoid going overboard on upsets in the first round. Picking an upset that doesn't happen is more likely to hurt you than picking a favorite that loses (the prevailing underdog is more likely to be eliminated in the next round and thus not have as many long-range repercussions).

And if you end up losing, don't feel bad. It really is 90 percent luck.
posted by aswego at 5:19 PM on March 19, 2008

While copying the picks of any one yapping expert is a recipe for disaster - they all have blind spots, and irrational loyalties, and professional incentives to pick unlikely upsets that'll be immediately forgotten if they're wrong and parlayed into higher-payed yapping jobs if they're right - copying the consensus picks of a bunch of yapping experts (I mean, like, dozens) gives you a sort-of instant meta-expertise. If seventy per cent of the yappers on the major sports sites are picking a 12 seed over a 5 seed, there's probably a reason (or set of reasons) for it more grounded than a hunch.

A few years ago I picked most of the Sweet Sixteen and the entire Final Four this way without having watched a single game during the season. I also won an Oscar contest with hundreds of entries for a few years running by sitting at my computer the night before and googling around for the twelve people who actually knew anything about "short film (animated)."

I don't really believe in the Wisdom of the Crowd, but these were pretty validating examples of the Wisdom of the Crowd.
posted by dyoneo at 6:05 PM on March 19, 2008

The ESPN and Sports Illustrated websites will give you a ton of information about each team when you're filling out they're interactive brackets.

As long as you don't bet the house on Memphis you should be fine.
posted by doppleradar at 8:40 PM on March 19, 2008

For close seedings I've found that going with the school with more basketball tradition can be a good bet.
posted by aerotive at 9:35 PM on March 19, 2008

You should check out Poologic. The guy who runs it has several statistical models that show what picks to make to ensure maximum profitability in a pool.
posted by reenum at 1:16 AM on March 20, 2008

Best answer: P.S. You may want to call a friend who knows nothing about college basketball and have that person give you their picks. Folks such as these always seem to end up winning pools.
posted by reenum at 1:19 AM on March 20, 2008 [1 favorite]

It's a little late, but my strategy is to play it safe but with a couple of upsets and one grudge. Mrs ob's picks are certifiably insane, but we're both in the same pool so they may end up complimenting each other. Nah, in reality we're both going to loose.
posted by ob at 7:26 AM on March 20, 2008