It's not half.
March 10, 2025 9:42 PM Subscribe
Please help me locate the most definitive resource to fill in the blanks: "In the last US election, Trump received ___M votes, which represents ___% of all registered voters in 2024, and is ___% of the total US population."
Why is this so hard? At one point I saw it was something like 34%, but another source indicated it was 41.5%. I dig for numbers on presumably reliable sites, and I can't find two that report exactly the same numbers. Or maybe I just can't do basic math and my ability to research has gone to shit.
I don't want 'voting-eligible' population numbers (US News says about 245M)*, and I don't want the (49.80 v 48.33) percent of votes cast. I want to know the percent of registered voters.
Please cite indisputable sources and explain even if you think I don't need it, because I'm feeling like a real dummy.
*77,301,997 Trump voters ÷ 244,666,890 voting-eligible population = 31.59%
Why is this so hard? At one point I saw it was something like 34%, but another source indicated it was 41.5%. I dig for numbers on presumably reliable sites, and I can't find two that report exactly the same numbers. Or maybe I just can't do basic math and my ability to research has gone to shit.
I don't want 'voting-eligible' population numbers (US News says about 245M)*, and I don't want the (49.80 v 48.33) percent of votes cast. I want to know the percent of registered voters.
Please cite indisputable sources and explain even if you think I don't need it, because I'm feeling like a real dummy.
*77,301,997 Trump voters ÷ 244,666,890 voting-eligible population = 31.59%
Response by poster: That number missing from the 2024 Registered Voters column is the one I want. Shoot. I'd looked at The American Presidency Project but had not seen that particular page, so thanks for that and I'll keep an eye on it.
If I'd given it more thought, I could have filled in some of my own numbers, but I guess I was hoping for one clear source that would lay it all out, one I could cite.
Trump received 77.3M votes, which represents ___% of all registered voters in 2024, and is 22.7% of the total US population."
posted by AnOrigamiLife at 10:25 PM on March 10
If I'd given it more thought, I could have filled in some of my own numbers, but I guess I was hoping for one clear source that would lay it all out, one I could cite.
Trump received 77.3M votes, which represents ___% of all registered voters in 2024, and is 22.7% of the total US population."
posted by AnOrigamiLife at 10:25 PM on March 10
If the US census follows the same reporting schedule as prior elections, the UC Census Current Population survey may release data for the 2024 election in April 2025.
However, these estimates of registered voters are based on surveying 60,000 households and asking them questionaries, so they are statistical estimates based on "reported registered" - what people said in response to a survey. And there's a non response category covering: "we didn't ask them", "they said they don't know" and "they refused to answer"!
E.g. from the data of the 2020 general election, they have
pc is percentage of US citizen - total (both sexes, 18 years and over)
error is the margin of error
[1] 'No response to registration' includes those who were not asked if they were registered as well as those who responded 'Don't Know,' and 'Refused.'
[2] 'No response to voting' includes those who were not asked if they voted as well as those who responded 'Don't Know,' and 'Refused.'
posted by are-coral-made at 11:15 PM on March 10
However, these estimates of registered voters are based on surveying 60,000 households and asking them questionaries, so they are statistical estimates based on "reported registered" - what people said in response to a survey. And there's a non response category covering: "we didn't ask them", "they said they don't know" and "they refused to answer"!
E.g. from the data of the 2020 general election, they have
both sexes, total 18 years and over pc error total population 252,274 US citizen - total 231,593 US citizen - reported registered 168,308 72.7% 0.4% US citizen - reported not registered 25,782 11.1% 0.3% US citizen - no response to registration [1] 37,503 16.2% 0.3% US citizen - reported voted 154,628 66.8% 0.4% US citizen - reported not voted 40,561 17.5% 0.3% US citizen - no response to voting [2] 36,404 15.7% 0.3%all counts in thousands
pc is percentage of US citizen - total (both sexes, 18 years and over)
error is the margin of error
[1] 'No response to registration' includes those who were not asked if they were registered as well as those who responded 'Don't Know,' and 'Refused.'
[2] 'No response to voting' includes those who were not asked if they voted as well as those who responded 'Don't Know,' and 'Refused.'
posted by are-coral-made at 11:15 PM on March 10
A friend of mine who works extensively with elections data agrees there's no one-stop-shop yet, but suggests keeping an eye on the Election Assistance Commission, which should have that later this year or early next year.
Presuming we still have elections for an Election Assistance Commission to assist with.
posted by martin q blank at 6:42 AM on March 11 [2 favorites]
Presuming we still have elections for an Election Assistance Commission to assist with.
posted by martin q blank at 6:42 AM on March 11 [2 favorites]
The number of registered voters is a moving target, and I think this is part of the reason you are having trouble finding this. My state has same day registration, and I have worked the polls registering people. I would estimate at least half of the people I am registering are not new to voting, they just moved or changed their name and did not update their registration before the deadline. Many of them are still registered in their old precinct, so we cannot just add the numbers of previously registered and newly registered voters together or we will be overcounting. People also die, which takes time to get reported to the counties, or they leave the state and never update their registration. My state deactivates your registration after not voting for four years, so any given number is an estimate of the population that could legally vote in an election tomorrow.
posted by soelo at 7:32 AM on March 11 [5 favorites]
posted by soelo at 7:32 AM on March 11 [5 favorites]
Response by poster: Back to clarify that the number of registered voters I’m looking for are those who were actually registered to vote on election day 2024.
posted by AnOrigamiLife at 2:11 PM on March 11
posted by AnOrigamiLife at 2:11 PM on March 11
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The Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) did a post-election survey which found that 69% of registered voters cast a ballot in the 2024 election. However, I’m not sure what their margin of error is, or anything else about their polling methodology.
Many states publish precise registration and turnout numbers; for example, here is 2024 voter registration and turnout for Washington state. If you can find similar pages for all 50 states and DC, you could add up the numbers yourself.
posted by mbrubeck at 9:56 PM on March 10 [1 favorite]