Should I vote tactically to help the Liberal Democrats come second?
July 3, 2024 12:13 PM   Subscribe

I really don't want to vote for Labour in the UK election tomorrow, but I'm in a very marginal constituency and Labour are the only party that can beat the Tories. I was planning to vote Green anyway because if Labour have any chance of winning here, they're not going to lose the election, and I don't think one more seat will make much difference.

My one doubt is that there's a chance the Lib Dems could become the official opposition, which might push Labour left, and voting Labour here would make that more likely because it might deprive the Tories of one more seat. Is this actually a realistic scenario which I should factor into my decision, or is it a pipe dream?
posted by Chenko to Law & Government (19 answers total) 2 users marked this as a favorite
 
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ reckons the Lib Dems will get 71 seats to the Tories’ 61, which I guess makes them the official opposition.
posted by osmond_nash at 12:32 PM on July 3, 2024


If the margin is between Labour/Tory, the only sensible vote is for Labour. If everyone who thinks that 'Labour will get in anyway so it doesn't matter if I vote for the candidate who'll come fourth' then a lot of marginals will end up being held by the Tories.
posted by essexjan at 12:48 PM on July 3, 2024 [22 favorites]


Just remember all the people who thought Brexit would never pass and so didn't bother to vote against it. Never take an election for granted -- it might be your last.
posted by heatherlogan at 1:07 PM on July 3, 2024 [17 favorites]


Best answer: Not a UK voter, but from my view it looks like the choice is between a) the Tories losing this election and b) the Tories losing its position as an opposition party possibly for DECADES. It seems pretty clear what my choice would be.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 1:14 PM on July 3, 2024 [2 favorites]


Best answer: I'm in a safe Labour seat and refuse to vote for them after Starmer's anti-trans comments this week (and historical anti-trans and anti-LGBT+ stance). I'll probably vote Lib Dem or Green, though neither are likely to win, simply to show the local Labour candidate that they've still got some voters who aren't happy with them.

That said, it's important to make sure marginal constituencies go against the Tories. If I were you, I would hold my nose and vote Labour, and maybe chuck some money in donations to your local Green or Lib Dem candidate. Remember what happened in 2016 when we were all so convinced by polling that Brexit wouldn't happen.

You could also sign up for Swap My Vote to put your Green or Lib Dem vote somewhere else.
posted by fight or flight at 1:21 PM on July 3, 2024 [9 favorites]


Best answer: The one thing I'll say is: if you end up with a Labour MP, and you write to them once they take office, it's a lot more effective to say "I'm your constituent and I voted for you. My next vote depends on you doing the following things..."

than to say "I'm your constituent and I didn't vote for you, but I'd still like you to do x, y and z"

Starmer is a big fucking marshmallow who bends to whoever's leaning on him hardest. Exhort your Labour candidate to lean on him for good things.

(UNLESS your specific local Labour candidate holds reprehensible views that make you believe they, personally, should not be in Parliament.)
posted by Pallas Athena at 1:30 PM on July 3, 2024 [1 favorite]


A friend who studies voting systems says, “The current replies pretty much cover it. If the seat truly is a two way battle between Labor and the Tories (there are websites to check this), it 100% makes sense to vote labor.”
posted by Winnie the Proust at 1:38 PM on July 3, 2024 [5 favorites]


Best answer: There's nothing you can do from a Labour/Tory marginal to improve the parliamentary result for the Lib Dems or the Greens. If you want to support a smaller party, then either donating or campaigning is likely to make the biggest difference.

In a Labour/Tory marginal the best way to make your vote count is to vote for whichever of those two parties you like the best and/or hate the least.
posted by plonkee at 2:48 PM on July 3, 2024 [2 favorites]


Yeah, that fact that the Lib Dems could become the official opposition has no bearing on your vote, because casting your vote for a Lib Dem is not going to elect a Lib Dem MP in your constituency.

Vote Labour to be sure to oust the Tories, and then start throwing your political energy into the issues that matter to you, in whatever landscape we wake up to on Friday.
posted by penguin pie at 3:39 PM on July 3, 2024 [5 favorites]


Labour's strategy is to win over Tory voters, and they're happy to lose voters on their left flank to achieve this. As infuriating as this is, it's entirely rational: Tory-Labour voters count twice, because it's one vote less in the blue column and one vote more in the red column.

If your seat stays blue tonight by a handful of votes, in the post-mortem they won't be asking "how could we have won back Green voters?". They will be asking "what could we have done to be more appealing to Conservative voters in that seat?". The only lesson Labour will take from losing Tory-Labour marginals is that they should be more right-wing, not less.
posted by dudekiller at 12:13 AM on July 4, 2024 [3 favorites]


If your seat stays blue tonight ....

... and you've helped to make that happen by voting LibDem, think how you're going to feel then. In the circumstances you describe, voting Labour is the only rational thing to do.
posted by Paul Slade at 12:27 AM on July 4, 2024 [2 favorites]


Response by poster: I wasn't considering voting Lib Dem -- my question was about voting tactically for Labour to increase the chances of the Lib Dems coming second.
posted by Chenko at 1:18 AM on July 4, 2024


it's a lot more effective to say "I'm your constituent and I voted for you"
You can always just lie, they don't have any way of checking, though I think they might be able to see if you didn't vote at all.
posted by Lanark at 1:52 AM on July 4, 2024


"voting Labour here... might deprive the Tories of one more seat. Is this actually a realistic scenario"
Yes.
posted by Lanark at 1:59 AM on July 4, 2024


Believe it or not, I do have a perspective on this as a US citizen; hear me out.

We do have more than two parties here in the United States, even though you rarely - if ever - hear about them. I've voted for a third party candidate precisely once - in a New York State election for a governor. Usually I vote tactically - I have rarely been excited about any Democratic candidate, but I know they will suit me far better than the Republican candidate. So I usually opt for the Democratic candidate as they will stand the best chance of defeating the Republican candidate. The one and only time I voted for a third party was in that election, because the Republican candidate for governor was such a non-entity that day before the election I realized I didn't even know the Republican candidate's name. I figured this was a safe chance that the Republican had NO chance of victory and I could vote as I pleased. (Turns out this was wise - the Democratic candidate, who won quite handily, was later caught up in an ethics scandal and had to leave office early, so I could honestly say that I never voted for him.)

My point being: it is your vote to use as you choose, and if tactics are how you choose to use it, then that is just fine. However, I'd definitely look at the odds of the worst-case scenario (Tories winning in your location, for instance) and make sure that's not a likelihood first.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:59 AM on July 4, 2024


Response by poster: Thanks everyone! I set up a Lab/Lib Dem vote swap and voted Labour. I'll also give some money to the Greens.
posted by Chenko at 6:02 AM on July 4, 2024 [5 favorites]


Thank you, Chenko. You've done your bit to help oust the Tories.
posted by essexjan at 6:28 AM on July 4, 2024


@empress it sounds to me like you’re a little burdened by what has been and are insufficiently attentive to what can be.
posted by crazy with stars at 12:21 PM on July 4, 2024 [2 favorites]


@empress it sounds to me like you’re a little burdened by what has been and are insufficiently attentive to what can be.

Not sure what you mean by that, but from what I'm seeing on a Sky News Livestream now, the Tories got their asses handed to them so it looks like things turned out okay anyway.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:14 PM on July 4, 2024


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