Future of Covid?
October 1, 2022 9:53 PM Subscribe
Do you know of any knowledgeable forecasts about covid? I'm hoping for something along the lines of "In X time, we could be Y safer, because of Z". Z might be better vaccination, a cure, herd immunity, etc.
I am especially interested in the outlook for people with more risk factors, and in the next six months to three years, but I'll take anything knowledgeable. Bonus points also for a synopsis from you, with a link to more info. In case it matters, I am in the USA.
I am especially interested in the outlook for people with more risk factors, and in the next six months to three years, but I'll take anything knowledgeable. Bonus points also for a synopsis from you, with a link to more info. In case it matters, I am in the USA.
Best answer: There's a lot of stuff I hear/interpret about COVID that I do not like but it sounds like you would like hopeful things. So here are a couple of things I, a pessimistic layperson, am looking forward to:
* Seeing whether mucosal vaccinations do better for durable immunity against infection instead of just preventing serious disease and death like the ones we have so far.
* Some people are working on developing consumer accessible Far-UVC, which might be able to be deployed to reduce the environmental hazard of COVID and other respiratory diseases.
Both of these will probably shake out one way or the other in the next three years. They are currently just possibilities.
What I, the pessimistic though admittedly not high risk layperson, try to do for myself while the world shakes out into its new shape is invest in reliable/durable masking technology (N95s and elastomeric respirators and home grown fit testing) and air filtration in my home (Corsi-Rosenthal cubes). I realize not everyone has the privilege of doing that for a wide variety of reasons, however those things exist right now for people that have the desire and resources to outfit themselves.
posted by foxfirefey at 10:31 PM on October 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
* Seeing whether mucosal vaccinations do better for durable immunity against infection instead of just preventing serious disease and death like the ones we have so far.
* Some people are working on developing consumer accessible Far-UVC, which might be able to be deployed to reduce the environmental hazard of COVID and other respiratory diseases.
Both of these will probably shake out one way or the other in the next three years. They are currently just possibilities.
What I, the pessimistic though admittedly not high risk layperson, try to do for myself while the world shakes out into its new shape is invest in reliable/durable masking technology (N95s and elastomeric respirators and home grown fit testing) and air filtration in my home (Corsi-Rosenthal cubes). I realize not everyone has the privilege of doing that for a wide variety of reasons, however those things exist right now for people that have the desire and resources to outfit themselves.
posted by foxfirefey at 10:31 PM on October 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
Best answer: Here's a piece from earlier this year on the possibilities of pan-coronavirus vaccines.
If either these or the mucosal vaccines pencil out -- and it'll likely be three years (give or take) before we know -- they would represent a rather larger margin of safety than we currently have.
posted by humbug at 5:33 AM on October 2, 2022 [3 favorites]
If either these or the mucosal vaccines pencil out -- and it'll likely be three years (give or take) before we know -- they would represent a rather larger margin of safety than we currently have.
posted by humbug at 5:33 AM on October 2, 2022 [3 favorites]
Response by poster: To clarify, if any knowledgeable forecasts don't predict a better future, that's helpful to know also.
posted by NotLost at 5:49 AM on October 2, 2022
posted by NotLost at 5:49 AM on October 2, 2022
Best answer: I have personally been following the progress of the mucosal vaccines; as far as I know at least one of them is in clinical trials and at least one of them has shown promise IN MICE, but it sounds like they just aren't as exciting to potential funders as the original vaccines, so who knows if we're ever going to get them, and if so, when.
On the other hand, we do already have updated vaccines for Omicron, and I just found this interesting thread which suggests that maybe COVID has painted itself into a local maximum, and if that's true, even the existing vaccines might be enough to get it under control.
posted by confluency at 12:37 PM on October 2, 2022 [3 favorites]
On the other hand, we do already have updated vaccines for Omicron, and I just found this interesting thread which suggests that maybe COVID has painted itself into a local maximum, and if that's true, even the existing vaccines might be enough to get it under control.
posted by confluency at 12:37 PM on October 2, 2022 [3 favorites]
Best answer: As someone working in the post-viral space, and currently focusing on Long Covid (which in many cases are two lifelong post-viral illnesses, the neuroimmune condition ME/CFS and the neurocardiac condition POTS): my view on what will happen is fairly pessimistic.
Researchers in this area are seeing that current vaccines don't meaningful prevent against LC, or do but for a very short time, and sometimes exacerbate POTS; we're also seeing that reinfections are causing LC even in people who had COVID once (or even twice!) and recovered.
So the future trajectory looks like each year will disable a % of people (the US Census currently has 7.5% of the country experiencing LC), and we will eventually end up with a large proportion of the entire population very ill - with large consequences not just from a human perspective, but economic as well.
posted by todolos at 7:41 PM on October 2, 2022 [5 favorites]
Researchers in this area are seeing that current vaccines don't meaningful prevent against LC, or do but for a very short time, and sometimes exacerbate POTS; we're also seeing that reinfections are causing LC even in people who had COVID once (or even twice!) and recovered.
So the future trajectory looks like each year will disable a % of people (the US Census currently has 7.5% of the country experiencing LC), and we will eventually end up with a large proportion of the entire population very ill - with large consequences not just from a human perspective, but economic as well.
posted by todolos at 7:41 PM on October 2, 2022 [5 favorites]
Response by poster: Thank you. These are both helpful and hopeful!
posted by NotLost at 7:44 PM on October 2, 2022
posted by NotLost at 7:44 PM on October 2, 2022
Best answer: Here's a recent piece in Salon looking at the potential impact of new COVID-19 variants on where things might be headed this winter.
posted by nobodyyouknow at 2:23 PM on October 6, 2022
posted by nobodyyouknow at 2:23 PM on October 6, 2022
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