Covidfilter:
August 29, 2021 8:20 PM   Subscribe

Solve our Covid-induced relationship problems! Our state is 40% vaccinated. Our county case rate is 30/100,000 and the 14-day change is +60%; the adjacent counties are 116/100,000 and 87/100,000. I take a drug that puts me at high risk of blood clots (potentially fatal if I also had Covid) and was double-Pfizered in April. Partner was double-Modernaed in February.

I would prefer to roll back to outdoor socializing and curbside pickup, he wants maskless indoor socializing with vaccinated people and in-person shopping wearing a mask (also: he has a beard and wears a stretchy cloth mask, so this is not a well-fitted N95 situation and he'd have to shave off his beard to get a better mask fit, which is not something either of us wants). I know general CDC advice follows his desires, but I'm a lil skeptical of the CDC these days, and what about my particular medical situation?

Bonus: We're supposed to attend an outdoor wedding in a month, over a hundred guests, "mostly" vaccinated. Go?
posted by HotToddy to Health & Fitness (29 answers total) 1 user marked this as a favorite
 
30/100,000? Holy crap, why isn't your area locked down? That's crazy high and I think your plan is the more reasonable one, though given those levels of spread, even outdoor socializing you should limit to vaxed and either distanced or masked. And he should get better masks. I would not go the wedding. Note that even the CDC guidelines say vaccinated people should wear masks indoors if they live in areas of high transmission.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 8:31 PM on August 29, 2021 [3 favorites]


Is that a daily or a weekly case rate?
posted by eirias at 8:44 PM on August 29, 2021


Response by poster: Daily, from the NYT dashboard.
posted by HotToddy at 8:46 PM on August 29, 2021 [1 favorite]


Anecdata:

I am in Seattle. Our vaccination rate is 60%. Our case rate is 28/100,000.

In late March and mid-April, I got my two Pfizer shots. I then got an antibody test in June, which showed that my body was successfully producing antibodies to the spike protein. Last week, I got COVID (probably at work).

I masked frequently at work but removed my mask for things like eating lunch. Most of my coworkers did not mask, including a person who bragged about using his dad's vaccine paperwork to fake his own vaccination. However, I had a lot of personal space at work, and it's a construction site, so relatively well-ventilated. However however, the hoist (construction elevator) was jam-packed with unmasked people.

My illness has involved headache, fatigue, mild coughing, and mild alterations in taste. However, it initially presented as only sneezing and congestion. Therefore, I did not realize I might have COVID (or even that I was sick) for the first 3 days, because sneezing and congestion are things I deal with at varying levels approx. 365 days a year. Thinking I just had my normal allergies, I spent the weekend hanging out with the one friend I regularly hang out with indoors and unmasked. By the time I got tested, I had exposed my friend to COVID. This friend was also vaccinated, and had gotten an antibody test recently showing 1000 Units/mL of spike protein antibody. This friend has since tested positive for COVID.

Moral of the story? Vaccine seems to prevent serious illness in most people, but not infection from Delta. Unfortunately, other people masking around you is likely more important to your probability of catching it than you masking -- but you have a lot less control over whether other people in your vicinity wear their masks. Honestly, if your medical risk really is that serious, I'd step things back quite a bit.
posted by cnidaria at 8:51 PM on August 29, 2021 [28 favorites]


Clarification: The above is our daily case rate for King County as well.
posted by cnidaria at 8:53 PM on August 29, 2021 [1 favorite]


30/100,000? Holy crap, why isn't your area locked down?

Likely because that is well under the average in the US at this point, and nowhere in the US is in actual lockdown -- comparatively, that area is doing pretty well.

Personally, I think that a household needs to dial its risk-taking to the person with the most vulnerability, so he needs to work with your situation. Having said that, I don't see his activities as particularly risky (as compared to say, close contact with unmasked/unvaccinated people, like in cnidaria's comment), but it's your comfort level that matters.
posted by Dip Flash at 9:00 PM on August 29, 2021 [7 favorites]


I'm on the "avoid unnecessary risks" side of things, and think your preferences sound far wiser. ESPECIALLY given your higher-risk factors. We're at a stage in the pandemic where so many COVID-related deaths are fairly foreseeable and preventable. If you're asking if it's reasonable to want to do outdoors-only socializing (ideally with vaxxed-only people) and curbside pickup, my vote is that yes, that is very, very reasonable.

Also, I'd skip a crowded activity like that wedding, especially if it sounds like there will be unvaccinated people there. Even if it's outdoors.
posted by DingoMutt at 9:06 PM on August 29, 2021 [2 favorites]


Would he prefer to roll things back to a safe level WITH you, or keep things lax WITHOUT you, alive and apart or maybe hospitalized or dead?

I realize some people are having trouble accepting that we're almost certainly never going back to 2019. But... we're not. And this trying to pretend we are is what is making everything worse.
posted by stormyteal at 9:09 PM on August 29, 2021 [16 favorites]


Clarification on my post: Everyone at work who wasn't wearing masks was SUPPOSED to be vaxxed. There is just one person I know of who used his dad's paperwork to fake his, and I'm particularly irked by this.

I did not spend 15 minutes within 6' of anyone at work ever, which is the CDC standard for "close contact". I worked alone, occasionally had 3 minute conversations with people while wearing at least my own mask, and occasionally rode the hoist (which has mesh ventilated walls open to the outdoor air) with people for 60 seconds at a time. So, ideal? No. Counting as close contact with unmasked folks, vaxxed or not, by CDC standards? Also no.

Mostly I want to emphasize that my confirmed, successfully vaccinated friend got COVID from my confirmed, successfully vaccinated self, and I could have gotten my case at work from someone who was vaccinated or unvaccinated -- we may never know.
posted by cnidaria at 9:21 PM on August 29, 2021 [5 favorites]


If I were your partner, I would roll with whatever made you comfortable. It has nothing to do with the science or with the numbers, it has everything to do with compromise in a relationship, doing things you might not want to do for a partner, etc.

I am a numbers person and I take risk based on probability of various outcomes all the time. Like all day long as a trader. I am fully Pfizered. I only mask when asked by a business or building. I went to a Yankees game a few weeks ago where not only was there no social distancing and no mask wearing for the most part, I was in line to get in and for beers with other people talking, screaming, gesturing within a foot or two of me for extended time. Friggin 20 minutes to get in and 15 to get a beer. Anyway, I did not get Covid. I went to a Dead & Co. show last week. Same sitch. No masks, no social distancing although you need a vaccine to a neg test to get in. The level of scrutiny for the documents was non existant. I did not get Covid.

While my immune system is ok, I do have many comorbidities. My point it that some people seem to be more resistant to getting it than others, and no matter how much you try to protect yourself, you are only as protected as the weakest link. The decision to me was to either stay in as much as possible like it was spring 2020 or accept that a fully vaccinated person has like a 95% chance of not being hospitalized or not having a severe case. The inbetween is like being half pregnant. Either you are strict in observance, very strict, or you follow CDC guidelines and live your life.
posted by AugustWest at 9:23 PM on August 29, 2021 [3 favorites]


I think you as the higher risk partner get to make the decisions about risk tolerance. I’d also skip the wedding and have him wear an N95 if he does go in anywhere. I know other men with beards who can wear N95s or KN95s - it’s worth trying different styles (behind the head, around the ear, folding). I think even if he can’t get a *perfect* fit with a beard, he can get better filtration than with a cloth mask (or do cloth over N95). Ultimately, this is a “we are a team and we need to protect our teammates even if it’s not convenient for us” situation.
posted by bananacabana at 9:32 PM on August 29, 2021 [7 favorites]


Regarding the bear, I'd buzz down the sides using a trimmer's stubble setting, and then trim the remaining goatee so it's max 1 inch.

Beard, rather.

Then get some sample packs of other masks. Find some to wear in high risk situations, and look to see if there are well-regarded cloth masks to wear in low risk situations.
posted by sebastienbailard at 10:58 PM on August 29, 2021


It is all trade-offs between different mental health impacts in my world right now, because after vaccination my risk is very low. If your risk is still high post-vaccine (there may or may not be good data but you may be able to find something if you search the specific drug or condition; having been high risk pre-vaccine does not seem to be 1:1 afterwards) then it's a physical risk too, and that would tilt things more. .

I would ask him to change his shopping style - find something else to scratch the spontaneity itch - but for hangouts it would depend on who and how often and how many people. Socialization is more of a sacrifice and will take some negotiation. It would be hard for me to ask my partner to give up his (very activity-based, not portable outdoors) social activities for another god-knows-how-long. But asking guests to mask and running the air purifier or keeping a window open would be ok. Maybe you'll find something similar.

I also suggest he adopt a better mask. We've give to KN95 for crowded situations, but for you with the beard I suggest a surgical one under his cloth one. That way you know exactly what you're getting, for a nice standardization and good results in testing.
posted by Lady Li at 12:32 AM on August 30, 2021 [2 favorites]


The US is still under-testing and under-reporting Covid-19 infections (and deaths), plus there's a lag in that reporting hampering effective data collection and analysis. In some places there are limitations in how many deaths can even be processed in a day, skewing figures. As of Aug. 20, the CDC was still only tracking a fraction of breakthrough COVID-19 infections, kneecapping transmission-rate figures and projections. (Long-haul Covid-19 cases appear undercounted, too.)

This is all to point out that many of the location-based Covid-19 activity charts in the NYT dashboard are blurry snapshots into the past. Given that last month, "74% infected in Massachusetts COVID-19 outbreak were vaccinated," and we know that vaccine efficacy wanes within six months after the second dose ("decline in efficacy was more pronounced among those aged 35 years and older"), at least skip next month's wedding.
posted by Iris Gambol at 12:44 AM on August 30, 2021 [9 favorites]


A key factor is your respective ages. Here's a good read about how much insight is lost when data gets aggregated.
posted by dum spiro spero at 1:42 AM on August 30, 2021 [2 favorites]


Time to evaluate whether you want to spend your life with someone who values his own fleeting pleasures over your long term health and safety.
posted by MexicanYenta at 2:05 AM on August 30, 2021 [9 favorites]


The higher risk person should get the lion’s share of the decision making around this, in my book. In your shoes I would absolutely not go to the wedding. There might be room for compromise on the rest - what about mostly delivery shopping with one in person run a month for anything that’s hard to get delivered? Vaccinated indoor socializing less often or with fewer people?

I’m much closer to your end of the spectrum, for whatever that’s worth. Both members of my household have comorbidities. I’ve declined already for a small outdoor wedding in October, we never stopped doing grocery delivery, and I am only seeing one particular vaccinated friend indoors and unmasked.
posted by Stacey at 4:11 AM on August 30, 2021 [1 favorite]


In the worst case, what is the ER situation of your area? I've been to two different hospitals recently, they had confirmed covid cases sitting in the waiting room for several hours in a major city because everything is just over stuffed. Patients were on beds in the hallway, and there were concerns about the quality of care due to the staff being overworked, under supported, and just generally slammed silly. I don't know what the number of avoidable and preventable deaths are due to the strain hospitals are under, but the number is absolutely above zero. I certainly don't blame the hospital staff who had support and staffing issues even before covid, but from my hospital experience this month covid is a super crisis that should be avoided.

Take every precaution you deem reasonable. I've given up on the hope that everybody treats covid like something that can leave them dying alone in a hospital.... Fun fact, every hospital in the city and I think the state has banned visitors. So the dying alone thing really isn't any exaggeration or metaphor. And maybe the numerical risks of covid aren't that high, but I feel like far too much of the world is playing Russian roulette with other people's lives right now.
posted by Jacen at 4:14 AM on August 30, 2021 [3 favorites]


So, two people have different priorities. It feels like a big difference of opinion, but at the end of the day, one person is concerned with Covid, and one person is starting to feel the effects of social isolation.

Social isolation is a real problem, and many people feel it. What I would recommend is to find a solution that strategically helps solve the feeling of social isolation, while also minimizing Covid risk.

There's a ton of activities that are hugely socially engaging, that don't require masks, that are very safe. Reminder, the CDC has said outdoors transmission is really rare, and studies show that outdoors biggest risk is what's before/after, like bathrooms, carpooling, etc.

Volleyball
Beach volleyball
Pickleball
Badminton
Playing chess at a park
Eating on patios (no bathrooms!)
Going on hikes with friends
Riding bikes
Yard games
Rivers/canoing/fishing

You can use microcovid.org to help determine the risk of indoor unmasked vaccinated Hangouts. I'd say in general, they should be very safe in smaller numbers of people, and I have been partaking for a while now, but that doesn't mean you can't use outdoor socialization to solve that need too. I'd think in general, if you are spending at least two hours with someone indoors, Poorly fitting masks no longer provide much protection anyway, as the air will fill with a good amount of virus over time. So, the masks indoor with other vaccinated people won't matter much anyway for longer periods of time.

If you're going to spend 2 hours with another couple indoors, you might as well spend the whole weekend with them. Its definitely better than 2-3 different social engagements throughout the weekend. You could politely ask the other couple to try to be a little extra rigorous the 3-4 days before the weekend as well.

So, I guess, what I'm saying is it's not a "his way or my way" there's lots of room for happy compromises in the middle. Seeing someone for only an hour for dinner feels A lot less risky than spending a whole weekend with them, but in reality it's a great way to get more social interaction without much incremental covid risk.
posted by bbqturtle at 4:49 AM on August 30, 2021 [1 favorite]


Negotiating this might be easier if you establish exactly what sorts of socializing/ shopping are most important to him. The risk will be lower, for example, if the indoor socializing is always with the same four people who work from home rather than going to house parties with a ton of people. Discussing finer specifics, including frequency of interactions with other people, might make it easier to find a solution you can both live with rather than a blanket decision that could have dramatically different risk levels depending on how it's implemented.
posted by metasarah at 6:28 AM on August 30, 2021


Response by poster: An additional aspect to this is that we each have our own house, but spend several hours together every day. So we could in theory figure out some kind of socialize/isolate & test/spend time together rotation, and suggestions on how that might work would be welcome. He’s a very social person and has a legitimate need for social contact. I’m just not willing to get Covid for it.
posted by HotToddy at 7:42 AM on August 30, 2021


With surrounding counties being 87/100K and 116/100K I'm a little suspicious of your county's reported 30/100K number, actually. Are the counties significantly different in rural vs. urban, red vs. blue (unfortunately there is some political correlation with this disease), monied vs. un-monied ?
posted by TimHare at 8:42 AM on August 30, 2021 [1 favorite]


I am a numbers person...I did not get Covid.
Does this mean that you got the hard data of getting tested for Covid every couple of days? Because that's the only way to know for sure that you did not get asymptomatic Covid.
posted by amtho at 8:58 AM on August 30, 2021 [2 favorites]


Response by poster: With surrounding counties being 87/100K and 116/100K I'm a little suspicious of your county's reported 30/100K number, actually. Are the counties significantly different in rural vs. urban, red vs. blue (unfortunately there is some political correlation with this disease), monied vs. un-monied ?

Yes, all of the above. The numbers have followed this pattern throughout the pandemic.
posted by HotToddy at 9:04 AM on August 30, 2021


It might be worth going through microcovid.org together for some of these activities and discussing the results.
posted by wintersweet at 9:44 AM on August 30, 2021


One option would be to ask him to take an at-home rapid test before spending time with you - doing that daily could get expensive, but perhaps doing it a couple times a week would feel safe enough for you.

For the outdoor wedding, the lowest risk way to attend would be to go to the ceremony only and wear a high quality mask that fits well.

In terms of your risk of blood clots, have you spoken with your doctor about whether a breakthrough infection would be particularly dangerous to you with your current drug regimen? The vaccines are highly effective at preventing severe illness and hospitalization - even in high risk individuals. Perhaps looking at the numbers would be reassuring, or if not reassuring, would help you frame the conversation with your partner.
posted by insectosaurus at 10:27 AM on August 30, 2021


cnidaria above illustrates just how easily transmissible the covid Delta variant is, even among the vaccinated. Relying on being outdoors to protect us appears to be totally inadequate. We should all be much, much more wary, and get our boosters when available.

There is NO WAY I would attend a wedding, even outdoors, where there will be eating, drinking, and toasting involved AND known non-vaccinated people attending. This really has nothing to do with compromising with a partner in the normal scheme of things, it's about minimizing exposure to a potentially fatal disease. And I'm not facing a higher risk of blood clots if infected.
posted by citygirl at 11:04 AM on August 30, 2021 [1 favorite]


Response by poster: In terms of your risk of blood clots, have you spoken with your doctor about whether a breakthrough infection would be particularly dangerous to you with your current drug regimen?

Yes, she thinks the risk is significant enough that I should continue to work from home. I don’t think anyone knows for sure what the actual statistical risk is for the very small population of people who are fully vaccinated and take this drug, but the potential consequences are serious.

Even without the drug issue, though, I am not interested in getting Covid. I have plenty of other health problems and don’t need one more.
posted by HotToddy at 11:17 AM on August 30, 2021


Sometimes people do and sometimes they don't. I've been getting tested every few days and so far haven't come down with it yet (though I just did test #3 today, so we'll see) after being in an indoor musical, but masked. But who knows?

That said, I don't think I'd go to a wedding unless I skipped all eating and drinking and never took my mask off for a second around other humans. 100+ "mostly" vaccinated people is a vague description that doesn't quite reassure me. Outdoors may be fine, but the more people, the less great, especially if they are getting very close to each other.

I also think that the person with the most health issues should be the one who makes the rules here in the home. I don't think anyone really knows for sure, but if you're super uncomfortable with what he wants to do and it's your health at risk.

The one selling point here is "An additional aspect to this is that we each have our own house, but spend several hours together every day. So we could in theory figure out some kind of socialize/isolate & test/spend time together rotation, ' If you can stay apart for 14 days or so per his adventures, that might be best.
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:17 PM on August 31, 2021


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