Term limits analysis

June 22, 2021 10:23 AM

Can you point me to an article on term limits? This was a US political reform trend of the 90s I guess and I know I've read the outcome of these term limit laws has been somewhat bad, but I'd like to read specific analysis of why and what the specific impact of these laws has been.
posted by latkes to Law & Government (4 answers total)

The Contract With America cynically and successfully pushed term limits as a way to get rid of Dems who'd been in office a long time. Many who 'signed' the contract later did not honor term limits, including my Senator Susan Collins(hissing noise). There are benefits to longevity in Congress - better committee assignments, etc. This was one of the early GOP measures to take control. They have gotten even better at it. Dems are not even close to keeping up even though more Americans agree with Dem policies.
posted by theora55 at 10:35 AM on June 22, 2021 [2 favorites]

If you search google scholar you'll find a few. The most recent one there looks like this. Abstract:

We found that term limits have virtually no effect on the types of people elected to office—whether measured by a range of demographic characteristics or by ideological predisposition—but they do have measurable impact on certain behaviors and priorities reported by legislators in the survey, and on the balance of power among various institutional actors in the arena of state politics. We characterize the biggest impact on behavior and priorities as a “Burkean shift,” whereby term-limited legislators become less beholden to the constituents in their geographical districts and more attentive to other concerns. The reform also increases the power of the executive branch (governors and the bureaucracy) over legislative outcomes and weakens the influence of majority party leaders and committee chairs, albeit for different reasons.

To that list, I would add (based on personal experience): Greatly increases the power of lobbyists on legislative outcomes, at the expense of elected legislators' power.
posted by flug at 11:09 AM on June 22, 2021 [4 favorites]

Time Magazine ran one of the earliest looks at the phenomenon in 2001, just after Ohio term limits had gone into effect. It sticks in my mind because I was pretty active in state politics then and was acquainted with some of the people in the article. The basic point is that legislative competence was eroded.

There is an amusing/nauseating irony at the end regarding then-Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder, who is identified as "an early proponent of term limits". Not such a proponent that he wasn't above running again after getting term-limited out in 2004. He ran again in 2016, and in 2019 he was once again reelected Speaker of the House. The only problem is that the FBI has determined that his campaign was basically a front for an energy company pouring in illegal campaign contributions. He's been indicted on RICO charges, and yeah, innocent until proven guilty and all that, but the Ohio House just recently voted to kick him out, after he refused to resign. So yeah, he kind of inadvertently proved his own point about career politicians. Which seems to be something that Republican elected officials enjoy (cf. sexual predation in public bathrooms for example, but that's a digression.)
posted by kevinbelt at 12:21 PM on June 22, 2021

Carey/Niemi/Powell/Moncrief's book and preceding LSQ articles are the authoritative early-take on term limits. Their findings are mostly negative.

Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson's book in the term limits experience in Michigan has deeply negative findings. I haven't read this in book form; only seen Marjorie give talks about chapters.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 1:49 PM on June 22, 2021