Help me debunk more MAGA BS
February 15, 2021 11:14 AM Subscribe
A relative just posted a thing on FB that claims that it was literally impossible for Biden to get X number of new voters in Colorado. I know it is bullshit but my brain is dead. Please help me figure out how to debunk the BS.
The link is to a Blogspot blog that starts like this:
Colorado Fraud - 450,000 New Voters, 100% went to Biden ? Stats and Math Matter!
HERE IS SOME ELECTION ANALYSIS ABOUT COLORADO VOTER DATA WHICH IS STUNNING. COLORADO WAS ALREADY A MAIL IN VOTE STATE THAT MAILED OUT BALLOTS.
COLORADO POPULATION AND VOTER FACT CHECK
The population of Colorado in 2020 was 5,807,719, a 0.85% increase from 2019.
The population of Colorado in 2019 was 5,758,486, a 1.08% increase from 2018.
The population of Colorado in 2018 was 5,697,155, a 1.42% increase from 2017.
The population of Colorado in 2017 was 5,617,421, a 1.33% increase from 2016.
*Accordingly, the population of Colorado increases by roughly 1-1.5% per year
** Nationwide - Trump Boosted his Hispanic and Latino Vote except in Colorado. Colorado has over 1 million that identify as Hispanic and Latino Voters and also Italian-Latins
Etc. Thanks for any help you can provide. I've been on deadline for weeks and my brain is fried.
The link is to a Blogspot blog that starts like this:
Colorado Fraud - 450,000 New Voters, 100% went to Biden ? Stats and Math Matter!
HERE IS SOME ELECTION ANALYSIS ABOUT COLORADO VOTER DATA WHICH IS STUNNING. COLORADO WAS ALREADY A MAIL IN VOTE STATE THAT MAILED OUT BALLOTS.
COLORADO POPULATION AND VOTER FACT CHECK
The population of Colorado in 2020 was 5,807,719, a 0.85% increase from 2019.
The population of Colorado in 2019 was 5,758,486, a 1.08% increase from 2018.
The population of Colorado in 2018 was 5,697,155, a 1.42% increase from 2017.
The population of Colorado in 2017 was 5,617,421, a 1.33% increase from 2016.
*Accordingly, the population of Colorado increases by roughly 1-1.5% per year
** Nationwide - Trump Boosted his Hispanic and Latino Vote except in Colorado. Colorado has over 1 million that identify as Hispanic and Latino Voters and also Italian-Latins
Etc. Thanks for any help you can provide. I've been on deadline for weeks and my brain is fried.
In my brief look at the link, it seems the faulty premise is that new voters must come from new residents. This fails to consider how motivated citizens were to vote (on both sides, after maybe not voting in 2016 or 2018) with Trump as president for four years.
posted by El_Marto at 11:29 AM on February 15, 2021 [17 favorites]
posted by El_Marto at 11:29 AM on February 15, 2021 [17 favorites]
Concur with @El_Marto. The unstated assumption is "new voters must be from immigrants", not from new voter registrations. And that is just ridiculous.
Furthermore, Colorado's registered voter stats are available EVERY MONTH in 2020. As of Nov 1, 2020, 1.129M DEM, 1.028M REP, 1.541M UNAFFILIATED.
All available from this page
posted by kschang at 11:38 AM on February 15, 2021 [9 favorites]
Furthermore, Colorado's registered voter stats are available EVERY MONTH in 2020. As of Nov 1, 2020, 1.129M DEM, 1.028M REP, 1.541M UNAFFILIATED.
All available from this page
posted by kschang at 11:38 AM on February 15, 2021 [9 favorites]
The post itself claims that 2.7 million people voted in CO in 2016. Unless about half the population of CO in 2016 was under 18 or a non-citizen, then there's plenty of scope to increase the number of people voting in 2020 by 450k exclusively from people who could have voted in 2016 but chose not to. Even if the population of CO had not increased at all. There are probably another 450k plus people in CO who were eligible to vote but didn't in 2020.
posted by plonkee at 11:51 AM on February 15, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by plonkee at 11:51 AM on February 15, 2021 [4 favorites]
Your linked blog is a profoundly dumb analysis.
Turnout in Colorado in 2016 was 74%, from the portion of the (then) 5.6M population who are eligible to vote. 2.78M people voted. Trump received 1.20M of these votes. Clinton received 1.34M of these votes. Critically, third party candidate Gary Johnson received 0.14M of these votes. Gary Johnson is from neighboring New Mexico and has quite a bit of recognition in Colorado. In 2016, third party candidates received 0.238M votes. (source: Wikipedia)
Turnout in Colorado in 2020 was 87%, from the portion of the (now) 5.8M population who are eligible to vote. 3.25M people voted (gain of 0.477M over 2016). Trump received 1.36M of these votes (gain of 0.162M over 2016). Biden received 1.80M of these votes (gain of 0.466M over Clinton). The leading third party candidate Jo Jorgensen received only 0.05M of these votes. In 2020, third party candidates received 0.088M votes (loss of 0.150M from 2016). (source: Wikipedia).
There were 0.477M more votes in Colorado in 2020 than 2016. There were also 0.150M votes that switched from third party to Democratic/Republican. So, there are a total of 0.627M "new" votes in 2020, not 0.450M as stated in the analysis. If we make the naïve assumption that all of those "new" votes voted exactly as the rest of the state, then we immediately explain 0.347M of Biden's gain (that's 72.7% of Biden's new votes).
But wait, there's more!
Third party voters in 2016 overwhelmingly trended to Biden in 2020. New voters voted with overwhelming turnout and voted overwhelmingly for Biden. And, although I'm struggling to find a particularly good reference for this other than this pre-election poll - I expect for voters who were eligible in 2016 but didn't vote and did vote in 2020 trended towards Biden.
So, the debunking of this analysis is rather straight-forward: the analysis ignores third party voters, and the implied question of "did the vast majority of new voters go to Biden?" has an explicit - and tested - answer of, "yes, they did".
posted by saeculorum at 12:00 PM on February 15, 2021 [13 favorites]
Turnout in Colorado in 2016 was 74%, from the portion of the (then) 5.6M population who are eligible to vote. 2.78M people voted. Trump received 1.20M of these votes. Clinton received 1.34M of these votes. Critically, third party candidate Gary Johnson received 0.14M of these votes. Gary Johnson is from neighboring New Mexico and has quite a bit of recognition in Colorado. In 2016, third party candidates received 0.238M votes. (source: Wikipedia)
Turnout in Colorado in 2020 was 87%, from the portion of the (now) 5.8M population who are eligible to vote. 3.25M people voted (gain of 0.477M over 2016). Trump received 1.36M of these votes (gain of 0.162M over 2016). Biden received 1.80M of these votes (gain of 0.466M over Clinton). The leading third party candidate Jo Jorgensen received only 0.05M of these votes. In 2020, third party candidates received 0.088M votes (loss of 0.150M from 2016). (source: Wikipedia).
There were 0.477M more votes in Colorado in 2020 than 2016. There were also 0.150M votes that switched from third party to Democratic/Republican. So, there are a total of 0.627M "new" votes in 2020, not 0.450M as stated in the analysis. If we make the naïve assumption that all of those "new" votes voted exactly as the rest of the state, then we immediately explain 0.347M of Biden's gain (that's 72.7% of Biden's new votes).
But wait, there's more!
Third party voters in 2016 overwhelmingly trended to Biden in 2020. New voters voted with overwhelming turnout and voted overwhelmingly for Biden. And, although I'm struggling to find a particularly good reference for this other than this pre-election poll - I expect for voters who were eligible in 2016 but didn't vote and did vote in 2020 trended towards Biden.
So, the debunking of this analysis is rather straight-forward: the analysis ignores third party voters, and the implied question of "did the vast majority of new voters go to Biden?" has an explicit - and tested - answer of, "yes, they did".
posted by saeculorum at 12:00 PM on February 15, 2021 [13 favorites]
Also, thinking about this, a simpler debunking is - Trump lost Colorado in 2016 (decisively), and Trump lost Colorado in 2020 (decisively). Colorado was not in play in 2016, and was also not in play in 2020. Who cares what the actual percentage is, since it didn't change the Electoral College? If there was a massive voter fraud effort, I would expect it to be focused on states that actually matter for the election - not Colorado.
posted by saeculorum at 12:32 PM on February 15, 2021 [12 favorites]
posted by saeculorum at 12:32 PM on February 15, 2021 [12 favorites]
To demonstrate the absurdity of this analysis, let me replay it on Texas.
In Texas in 2020, Trump gained 1.051M votes over 2016. The population of Texas only grew 1.123M during that time! Are we to believe that every single one of those new people are eligible voters, and that Trump picked up 93.6% of them? Clearly there is voter fraud in Texas!
posted by saeculorum at 12:55 PM on February 15, 2021 [8 favorites]
In Texas in 2020, Trump gained 1.051M votes over 2016. The population of Texas only grew 1.123M during that time! Are we to believe that every single one of those new people are eligible voters, and that Trump picked up 93.6% of them? Clearly there is voter fraud in Texas!
posted by saeculorum at 12:55 PM on February 15, 2021 [8 favorites]
This is just a bunch of gobbledygook saying "How could Trump lose if I like him so much?"
The answer is quite simple. Biden in 2020 was significantly more popular than Clinton in 2016. Trump in 2020 was significantly less popular than Trump in 2016.
Combine this with a big increase in turnout and Biden gets a lot more votes than Clinton got.
As mentioned above, Trump was handily defeated by Clinton in 2016 and Biden defeated him by even more in 2020. What's the mystery? There's absolutely nothing in the cited statistics that is surprising in the least.
posted by JackFlash at 2:01 PM on February 15, 2021 [6 favorites]
The answer is quite simple. Biden in 2020 was significantly more popular than Clinton in 2016. Trump in 2020 was significantly less popular than Trump in 2016.
Combine this with a big increase in turnout and Biden gets a lot more votes than Clinton got.
As mentioned above, Trump was handily defeated by Clinton in 2016 and Biden defeated him by even more in 2020. What's the mystery? There's absolutely nothing in the cited statistics that is surprising in the least.
posted by JackFlash at 2:01 PM on February 15, 2021 [6 favorites]
In addition the population of Colorado is more youthful than in many other states which would suggest a higher number of people turning 18 in the last couple of years than in other states.
posted by mareli at 4:57 PM on February 15, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by mareli at 4:57 PM on February 15, 2021 [2 favorites]
Coloradan here. Everything said above is true.
We also had a terrible Senator who never showed up for citizens and everybody wanted them gone.
Goodbye Corey Gardner!
posted by nickggully at 8:34 PM on February 15, 2021 [2 favorites]
We also had a terrible Senator who never showed up for citizens and everybody wanted them gone.
Goodbye Corey Gardner!
posted by nickggully at 8:34 PM on February 15, 2021 [2 favorites]
Thank you for doing this. Also, is FB still adding "this post contains false or misleading information about the election" flags if you report posts?
posted by evilmomlady at 3:59 AM on February 16, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by evilmomlady at 3:59 AM on February 16, 2021 [1 favorite]
This thread is closed to new comments.
posted by teremala at 11:24 AM on February 15, 2021 [6 favorites]