Covid models for those staying home
November 22, 2020 10:30 AM   Subscribe

There are plenty of Covid models that estimate what will happen after Thanksgiving in the US. My SO and I meed models that show that our sacrifices are making a difference.

Because right now we seem to be one of the few couples in our professional or personal circles who aren't traveling. It is discouraging to see people making travel plans and ignoring quarantine. People who, like us, do wear masks and therefore should know better. Like what is the point of our months of sacrifice. I need some data that says the scientists and data geeks are factoring in our choices in all those models most people are ignoring.
posted by anonymous to Society & Culture (5 answers total) 11 users marked this as a favorite
Not very geeky but will this help you?
posted by nantucket at 10:33 AM on November 22, 2020 [1 favorite]

Probably not what you were looking for but since Canada’s thanksgiving is over a month before ours, you could consider it a scale model of what will happen here. Rest assured that your sacrifice by staying home will have been worth it.
posted by sjswitzer at 1:13 PM on November 22, 2020 [5 favorites]

From fivethirtyeight, Why even a small Thanksgiving is dangerous.
posted by socky_puppy at 2:55 PM on November 22, 2020 [5 favorites]

I'm so sorry you're dealing with this. So are we.

We are not traveling and are truly quarantining in our home (which is the recommendation), but I'm not sure there is any data set that affirms that what we are doing is useful since almost no one else is. There's no benchmarking. The only data sets out there show what is actually happening, which is bad news.

We choose to make this sacrifice because it is the right thing to do to prevent us and our loved ones from illness on a micro-level. I don't honestly think there are enough people taking the virus seriously for us to be individually impactful on the macro level.

I am dealing with a ton of anger around "what I'm going to get" as a reward for my months and months of isolation and sacrifice, since it's clearly not going to be getting to the front of the line for a vaccine. The only reward seems to be not personally contracting Covid or spreading it to my loved ones - which should be enough but doesn't feel like it some days. I'm pursuing therapy.
posted by juniperesque at 7:51 AM on November 23, 2020 [10 favorites]

Unfortunately I don't think there is any model that will demonstrate that any given household's decision to follow recommendations is having a macro-level effect. It does, of course - your decision to avoid a holiday gathering and be cautious more generally is guaranteeing that you will not be a link in any Thanksgiving chains of transmission - but I think that's hard to visualize in a way that might be satisfying and personally motivating to stay the course you're on.

This might help you put some data to the impact you're having on your family's risk level. As another very cautious household, I've had a lot of emotional ups and downs like you're describing and checking in on this has helped me feel grounded.
posted by superfluousm at 9:46 AM on November 24, 2020

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