Walking away from Brexit?

November 22, 2018 1:42 PM

At the start of Brexit, some commentators pointed out that at any point during the two year transition period, the UK could simply walk away from Brexit, and the UK would stay in Europe. What happened to this idea - is it still legally (if not politically) viable?
posted by bergnotburg to Law & Government (11 answers total)

Nope, that applies during the Article 50 notification period. But yes, we could do that until 29th March 2019, 23:00 GMT.

If, as is likely, we get that far, then the UK will have left the EU, and there's no straightforward way back in. The best case scenario, once we're in the transition period, is if a general election votes for a pro-Single Market, pro-Freedom of Movement government by a landslide. In that case, I suspect the transition period could be made to slide smoothly into an EEA/EFTA style arrangement, and from that, we'd be in a position to rejoin by 2030. You may have noticed that there's no party that's offering that as an option.

The proposed transition period runs from 30th March 2019 - 31st December 2020, with the likelihood of being extendable until 31st December 2022, according to the current agreement.
posted by ambrosen at 2:05 PM on November 22, 2018

Not necessarily. There's currently a legal challenge ongoing to determine whether the UK could unilaterally withdraw from article 50, we will see if that was successful.

Many have argued that the only way article 50 will get revoked is with the consent of the other European states. In practice they are likely to give that consent, but its not a sure thing.

After much, barring my intervention before hand, we will no longer be a member of the eu
posted by Cannon Fodder at 2:45 PM on November 22, 2018

It’s not clear. Scottish courts appealed to the CJEU to rule on whether Art. 50 could be reversed by the U.K. government. Following the failure of a government appeal to the UK Supreme Court, the case is due to be heard on 27 November.
posted by Segundus at 2:46 PM on November 22, 2018 [1 favorite]

The UK government says it’s an impossible judgement on a hypothetical issue, because it’s not happening.
posted by Segundus at 2:49 PM on November 22, 2018 [1 favorite]

On the question of political viability, it's interesting to note that over the past week or so Theresa May has mentioned the possibility of "no Brexit at all". She has said it more than once.

Make of that what you will. My hope is that these are the first signs of a turning tide.

Fingers crossed.
posted by ZipRibbons at 1:24 AM on November 23, 2018 [5 favorites]

If there is no 'legal' way out of 'Brexit' ... then the UK is really in a bad spot... or? That is to say, even if the government (which ever that may be) try to revoke it the EU can or... not? but is under no legal obligation as Article 50 has already been invoked? Which means they might as well go ahead and go for it.
posted by From Bklyn at 1:31 AM on November 23, 2018

As if by magic, here's Dominic Raab saying that staying in the EU is better than May's deal.
posted by ZipRibbons at 1:46 AM on November 23, 2018 [4 favorites]

The 'no deal' cliff-edge certainly ends in the UK being outside the EU, not still within it.

In the case where no agreement can be obtained in the UK parliament, there's a reasonable chance that the government would seek to extend Art. 50, since they appear to have (mostly) woken up to the adverse effects of 'no deal'. If by some chance an agreement is obtained at the UK level, the EU members have to vote on it, and agreement may well fail at this point too - although it currently seems unlikely to reach this point. Again, I believe Art. 50 could be extended to allow further negotiations, or indeed a further referendum.
posted by pipeski at 4:33 AM on November 23, 2018

As things stand, by the operation of law the UK leaves the EU on 29th March 2019, irregardless of whether a withdrawal agreement is signed. To stay in, Article 50 would have to be extended or revoked. There is currently no formal or agreed mechanism in place to do this.

The above comments in my humble opinion are overly optimistic that the necessary political will, flexibility, and time exist on both sides to effect any extension to the date. I think it will be May's deal or no deal, both of which are horrendous options.
posted by el_presidente at 4:54 AM on November 23, 2018

It seems the U.K. can stop the Article 50 process at will , without the agreement of other members, and continue its EU membership.

Could this be a game changer?
posted by Segundus at 2:04 AM on December 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

The U.K. can stop the Article 50 process [...] and continue its EU membership.

Nothing would make me happier.
posted by ZipRibbons at 1:41 AM on December 5, 2018 [1 favorite]