Comments on: Vehicle Attrition Rate from 1965?
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Comments on Ask MetaFilter post Vehicle Attrition Rate from 1965?Sun, 13 Nov 2016 18:28:52 -0800Sun, 13 Nov 2016 18:35:18 -0800en-ushttp://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss60Question: Vehicle Attrition Rate from 1965?
http://ask.metafilter.com/302576/Vehicle-Attrition-Rate-from-1965
Math Geniuses, I am trying to figure out how many trucks from 1965 may still be in operation. I'm using 2.5% totaled or lost per year, over 51 years. If there were 3250 produced in 1965, how many would be left today? <br /><br /> My <a href="http://scoutparts.com/gallery/photos/International_Harvester_1964_Scout/1964%20International%20%20Scout%20red%20carpet.jpg">Scout 80 Red Carpet Special</a> was produced in 1964-5 to celebrate the first 100,000 Scout 80s made. 3250 were produced. I just want to estimate how many are left. I'm assuming a 2.5% kill rate a year. Is there a simple equation I can use on my calculator so I can vary the attrition percentage?post:ask.metafilter.com,2016:site.302576Sun, 13 Nov 2016 18:28:52 -0800atomicmediamathtrucksattritionBy: Sunburnt
http://ask.metafilter.com/302576/Vehicle-Attrition-Rate-from-1965#4382550
Been a while since I tried something like this, but you take the survival rate, 97.5%, and multiply it by itself as many times as years (Y) that have passed, which is to say 0.975 to the power of Y. <br>
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Let's suppose the current model year is 2017, since those cars are coming out now or any minute now, so Y= 52. <br>
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0.975^52 is .268, so 26.8% of the 3250 should survive. That's 871 Scouts.comment:ask.metafilter.com,2016:site.302576-4382550Sun, 13 Nov 2016 18:35:18 -0800SunburntBy: atomicmedia
http://ask.metafilter.com/302576/Vehicle-Attrition-Rate-from-1965#4382554
Excellent! Now I just have to figure out the real attrition rate (which could vary over time), and I will be dandy!comment:ask.metafilter.com,2016:site.302576-4382554Sun, 13 Nov 2016 18:40:00 -0800atomicmediaBy: Sunburnt
http://ask.metafilter.com/302576/Vehicle-Attrition-Rate-from-1965#4382592
Yup. If you have the year-to-year attrition rate, you could just multiply each year's rate together to get the total rate. Just don't mix kill rates with survival rates and you'll be in good stead.comment:ask.metafilter.com,2016:site.302576-4382592Sun, 13 Nov 2016 19:44:26 -0800SunburntBy: voiceofreason
http://ask.metafilter.com/302576/Vehicle-Attrition-Rate-from-1965#4382600
If you are looking for tables of vehicle survival rates, you might find some use in the DOE's <a href="http://cta.ornl.gov/data/index.shtml">Transportation Energy Data Book</a>. They have tables describing such things by class, if not make.comment:ask.metafilter.com,2016:site.302576-4382600Sun, 13 Nov 2016 19:57:23 -0800voiceofreasonBy: atomicmedia
http://ask.metafilter.com/302576/Vehicle-Attrition-Rate-from-1965#4382602
And that is very hard, I don't think anyone has attempted to do that. Even the co-author of the "Scout Encyclopedia" has no idea how many are left. I can't even get any data from even this year.comment:ask.metafilter.com,2016:site.302576-4382602Sun, 13 Nov 2016 19:57:59 -0800atomicmedia