How should I follow the 2016 US election result from the UK?
October 18, 2016 1:01 PM   Subscribe

What is the optimum strategy for following the US election results from the UK? Is there a guide as to when key states like Florida, Penn, Ohio etc are likely to release their results? I would like to have a good idea if possible of the result before I go to bed but I have to be in work at 10:00 GMT on the 9th November so I need to sleep at some point as well. I have seen some confusing stuff but is it correct that the earliest "call" about results will be at 04:00 GMT?

Or can I get a good idea of the situation much earlier? I don't really understand how it works since UK elections take ages from polls closing to give a result and networks are banned from saying anything until all polls close but it seems like it might be different in the US?
posted by Another Fine Product From The Nonsense Factory to Society & Culture (11 answers total) 6 users marked this as a favorite
 
Here's a map of the U.S. with 2012 poll closing times. I doubt it will be much, if at all, different in 2016. I wasn't able to find a 2016 version yet.

Generally speaking, you're going to get historically "safe" states for either party called as soon as the polls close--like literally, it's 9PM, polls closed, 9:01PM, "we can project that Clinton has won the state of New York".

This year the Eastern states to watch are Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia (especially Ohio, North Carolina, and Georgia.) If she wins those, go to bed, she's won the election. So you may know something as early as 3AM GMT.
posted by Automocar at 1:23 PM on October 18, 2016 [1 favorite]


Here's a map of poll closing times by state. Networks start announcing tallies per state as the polls close; the duration of time between poll-closing and calling that state's winner is basically a function of how close the vote is - a few minutes or even seconds for very blue or red states, to several hours (or weeks) for the close ones. But if they quickly call Georgia for Clinton, or Virginia for Trump, then the election is probably over in a landslide.

However! This year a company called VoteCastr will be projecting results all day based on observed turnout and posting them on Slate. This is the first time this has ever happened, so it's unclear how accurate these projections will be, but this might help you get a sense of the outcome before bedtime.
posted by theodolite at 1:28 PM on October 18, 2016 [2 favorites]


Best answer: It's a completely different process to the UK. Votes are counted on a precinct level, collated on a county level, and verified on a state level. There's no central count.

I have seen some confusing stuff but is it correct that the earliest "call" about results will be at 04:00 GMT?

That would be the earliest call on the final result, as it's when west coast states close their polls. Here's a timetable of when polls close, and here's the timeline of when states were called in 2012 and 2008 (which confusingly flips red and blue from the colours now typically used). Some states allow early voting; others don't. Some states privately count absentee and early ballots before the polls close, then add them to the election-day totals, others don't. Some states will extend voting in certain precincts if there are long queues, some won't.

There's no prohibition on reporting early east coast results while polls are open further west, though there's a self-enforced embargo on reporting exit polls, especially during the day. Some of that data will probably leak out online, but it's not trustworthy.

"Calls" are made based upon extrapolations from precinct data, and in close elections they can be held back or even withdrawn.

One way to just how things are going is to compare the times when states were called in 2012 and 2008 with when calls are made in 2016. If a state like Pennsylvania or Michigan gets called for Clinton before 9pm EST / 2am GMT, or one like Virginia gets called before 10pm EST, then you will get a sense of how things are likely to go. If it's closer in those states, you'd have to stay up longer.

I would honestly suggest getting a very early night and waking up around 3:30am. That way you'll get the decisive results, and either a concession and victory speech before going to work, or a deadlock that won't be resolved quickly.
posted by holgate at 1:36 PM on October 18, 2016 [3 favorites]


2016 poll closing times from the Green Papers. Most news organizations observe a voluntary prohibition on not calling a state until "most" of the polls have closed in that state. (Pay careful attention to the footnotes there for states where polls close at different times, e.g., states that span two time zones, for information on the earliest a state is likely to be called by media).

Also keep in mind that many states observe the rule that any voter who is in line at the time polls "close" is allowed to vote; it can be a considerable length of time (an hour or more comes to mind from previous presidential elections) after the time the polls formally close and the time at which everyone has voted.

You are correct that there is no legal prohibition on calling a state at any time; any attempt to create a legal ban would almost certainly be in conflict with the First Amendment.

You might also be interested in this Buzzfeed article about a person who leads a cadre of volunteers who will be posting his "calls" at Decision Desk HQ and apparently does not observe any such prohibition.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 1:37 PM on October 18, 2016 [1 favorite]


any attempt to create a legal ban would almost certainly be in conflict with the First Amendment.

This is different from Canada where there's a legal ban on coverage while polls are open in a particular province, but real-time reporting (including exit polls) has been wiggled round by relying on US coverage or sharing dodgy CBC streams from the easternmost provinces.
posted by holgate at 1:40 PM on October 18, 2016


Networks are definitely not banned from reporting results before the polls close nationwide. They do typically wait to report results from a particular state until that state's polls have closed. With early voting in a number of states, there will be numbers reported soon after the polls closed, which may lead to some states being called quickly.

The NYTimes Upshot has a paths to victory diagram so you can see when Trump no longer has a path to victory based on outcomes in (what were previously but may not now be) swing states.

Here are the poll closing times for each US time zone and UTC.

Assume Clinton wins PA, VA, and NH (she has a >90% likelihood of winning each of these), and Trump wins OH and IA (leaning Trump right now, but Clinton doesn't need these states to win, so let's just throw them in his column). If Trump loses FL, he loses. BUT, FL usually takes a while to call, so let's keep that out for now.

If Clinton wins two of NC, WI, and CO, she wins. NC polls close at 00:30 UTC and WI and CO at 2:00UTC. Obviously, if any traditionally Republican state (like GA; 00:00UTC closing time) goes for Clinton decisively, then it's over for Trump.

My prediction is that we'll know by around 3:00 UTC. Which is 5pm in Hawaii, btw, so everyone can feel free to imbibe to their hearts' content because "it's 5 o'clock somewhere."
posted by melissasaurus at 1:41 PM on October 18, 2016 [4 favorites]


4:00 GMT is the earliest the election as a whole will be called, because the networks observe a convention that, say, we don't know California will vote Democratic until the polls in California close. But I recall, in 2008, perhaps an hour, from 10 PM to 11 PM Eastern time (3 AM to 4 AM GMT; 7 PM to 8 PM California time), where I and the people I was watching with were basically saying "get on with it already". My memory's a bit fuzzy but I'd guess we knew how things were going to turn out around when Ohio was called, which the election atlas linked to above says was 9:23 US Eastern.

Take a look at FiveThirtyEight's "snake diagram"; that gives you the ordering of the states from most Clinton-favoring to most Trump-favoring. Basically, if states to the left of that center line down the middle are getting called for Trump, or states to the right are getting called for Clinton, that tells you how things are going. In the early hours, that means a call of North Carolina or Ohio (both 00:30 GMT) or Georgia* (01:00 GMT)for Clinton, or Pennsylvania, Michigan, or New Hampshire for Trump (01:00 GMT) pretty much tells you which way the whole thing will go.

* If Georgia does go for Clinton, it's very unlikely to be called early. I'll do my best to make that happen but I only have one vote.
posted by madcaptenor at 1:53 PM on October 18, 2016 [1 favorite]


Fellow Briton here. I should imagine you'll have no problem following the incoming results via the BBC, ITV, Sky or Al Jazeera English coverage, of which at least the first three's coverage will be tailored to people following it in our time zone, with plenty of the usual advice of when to pay attention and to what (and when you can nap). Lots of interviews, detailed explanations, swingometer graphics and the like through the night until the declaration.

In 2012, this was the situation regarding network coverage here in the UK: Radio Times article, and I imagine there are similar plans afoot for 8th November. I'll be watching too!
posted by doornoise at 3:54 PM on October 18, 2016


I should note that it is conceivable that the networks will call the election before the polls close in California; they've done it before. In 1984, for example, the networks called the election around 20:00 EST (1:00 GMT). But the electoral map looked like this that year; and as much as I would love to see a world where Clinton runs away with the election, it's extremely unlikely that she'll win enough states in the middle of the country to clinch the election without California, Washington, and Oregon.

This message board thread has links to timelines of election night called (per CNN) dating back to 1992. If the race stays like it is now, we're probably looking at a night like 2008 or 2012: the election will be called when the polls close in CA or shortly thereafter. If it gets closer, we could be looking at a 2004-type scenario or a 2000-type scenario, where one or more critical states aren't called until the next day.
posted by Johnny Assay at 7:18 PM on October 18, 2016


Any news website is going to show live returns as the ballots are counted. In years past, I have liked the way CNN presents it. I'm pretty sure cnn.com/election will turn into a live election tracker on election night. But any news organization is going to have this, particularly if all you care about is the presidential race. Twitter and following news organizations or reporters is a good idea as well.
posted by AppleTurnover at 8:33 PM on October 18, 2016


Rhod Sharp on Radio 5live is usually up all night and will no doubt be offering his usual knowledgeable and amusing take on events.
posted by poseathon at 2:50 PM on October 19, 2016


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