Like Powerball, but less fun

January 14, 2016 11:12 AM

Is there a way we can calculate our chances of getting into a given school in the Boston Public Schools lottery?

We're considering moving into Boston proper, and our son will start school in a few years. Something that gives us pause is the BPS lottery.

After doing a lot of reading, we are still not certain what a "good school" truly is, but we do know this: We do not want our guy to have to commute 40 minutes each way. I have heard lots of horror stories, and I have had a coworker have to deal with their kid having to go to school in Allston even though they live in Southie. But I have a hard time getting a grasp of how typical this is.

So, we would like to know how likely we are to get into a given school, not only for the commute issue but also so we can check the specific school for blatant red flags like lots of violence, racist reputations, or ridiculous class sizes. I looked at the BPS page on the lottery. It says that schools near the student's home are favored, but not to what extent. Then, there is this bit of handwaving:

The Home Based plan uses an algorithm, similar to a lottery; therefore we can’t guarantee an applicant will be assigned to one of his or her top choices

Is this algorithm detailed anywhere so we can reason about what likelihood student living at location A has about getting into schools J, K, and L?

posted by ignignokt to Law & Government (5 answers total)

I think this describes the algorithm and simulations using the algorithm Simulating Alternative School Choice Options in Boston - Technical Appendix, but I think you would need a lot of data about the schools in question and the current population in order to use it to make predictions...
posted by mskyle at 11:52 AM on January 14, 2016 [2 favorites]

(sorry if this is too pedantic to be useful, but knowing the algorithm is going to be very little help. you also need the data (and your future address). perhaps historical data is good enough, but i suspect there's significant variation year to year as ratings change. in other words, the best you can do is likely collect anecdotes about other people's experiences.

also, since you are new, you will have neither sibling nor same-school priority. so presumably will do worse than average, but perhaps not noticeably so).
posted by andrewcooke at 11:53 AM on January 14, 2016

Response by poster: I do realize outcomes depend on the choices of thousands of others, but I would still like to know the rules.

Right now, I have no idea how likely we are to get into any given school. Even a prediction made using last year's data would be hugely illuminating.

Thanks, mskyle – I wonder how the authors got the algorithm. I'll have a read!
posted by ignignokt at 12:14 PM on January 14, 2016

They wrote the algorithm!
posted by mskyle at 12:22 PM on January 14, 2016 [2 favorites]

It's not uncommon in large cities for a report or news article to be released each year detailing some stats on how many children got into their first choice school, one of their top five schools, etc. No idea how Boston works, but I'd look for news articles or reports published soon after the schools were announced last year.
posted by Jaclyn at 12:40 PM on January 14, 2016 [2 favorites]