Successor to the Good Judgement Project?
November 26, 2015 8:58 AM Subscribe
Does anyone know if there are online forums that might be geared towards prediction along the same lines as the Good Judgement Project ?
Hello. I'm reading Superforecasters, byPhilip Tetlock and Dan Gardner.
It's a pretty fascinating account of the Good Judgement Project, a decades-long forecasting project that attempted to quantify success in forecasting event outcomes (which were generally of a geopolitical nature), and the factors affecting that success.
I'd love to have contributed to the GJP - not that I'm particularly insightful or successful in predicting, but I enjoy a healthy debate on current issues. Tetelock/Gardner's conclusions are that successful prediction relies on a team with wide-ranging areas of interest, mental agility, ability to change mind/perspective as facts emerge, and serious dollop of objectivity.
I'm not interested in wading in with the tin hat brigade on ZeroHedge, nor investment websites where people tend to talk their book.
Any ideas?
Hello. I'm reading Superforecasters, byPhilip Tetlock and Dan Gardner.
It's a pretty fascinating account of the Good Judgement Project, a decades-long forecasting project that attempted to quantify success in forecasting event outcomes (which were generally of a geopolitical nature), and the factors affecting that success.
I'd love to have contributed to the GJP - not that I'm particularly insightful or successful in predicting, but I enjoy a healthy debate on current issues. Tetelock/Gardner's conclusions are that successful prediction relies on a team with wide-ranging areas of interest, mental agility, ability to change mind/perspective as facts emerge, and serious dollop of objectivity.
I'm not interested in wading in with the tin hat brigade on ZeroHedge, nor investment websites where people tend to talk their book.
Any ideas?
Response by poster: getting a dead link there. could be firewall issues tho.
posted by 5imon at 3:46 AM on November 30, 2015
posted by 5imon at 3:46 AM on November 30, 2015
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posted by redondo77 at 11:16 AM on November 26, 2015 [1 favorite]