How does one know if things are getting better or worse?
June 24, 2015 11:04 AM   Subscribe

If you were to measure whether things are getting better or worse in a country, what metrics would you use?
posted by scottso17 to Law & Government (17 answers total) 7 users marked this as a favorite
 
Economic inequality.
posted by dialetheia at 11:19 AM on June 24, 2015 [1 favorite]


Check out the OECD Better Life Index...
posted by Perplexity at 11:26 AM on June 24, 2015 [1 favorite]


Depends on to whom I'm making the claim of better or worse. Or how broad/narrow the claim is.

There will never be a way to prove the claim objectively - it is all subjective. I'm a labor person, so I'd be looking at several metrics related to work: unemployment claims + # of jobless who've timed out of benefits + considerations of underemployment + considerations of wage theft/stagnation/slave wages + considerations of affordable health care and timely access to care + availability of work benefits like maternity/paternity leave, paid sick leave, paid vacation + just and equitable work rules, etc, is the wage enough to live on....

But that's just me, with my labor slant.

There are all sorts of arguments within arguments about whether or not my metrics are valid or even exist.

Which is why, at the end of the day, I'm convinced that demands for evidence and the ensuing debates about that evidence are just a delaying tactic, in place to justify the status quo. (For example, I can spend years proving human suffering, only to find out that the powers that be don't actually care that people are suffering. Maybe they even get off a little bit on my careful documentations of human suffering.)
posted by vitabellosi at 11:27 AM on June 24, 2015 [1 favorite]


Change in corruption index over time.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 11:27 AM on June 24, 2015


If you were to measure whether things are getting better or worse in a country, what metrics would you use?

I don't think I know what you're asking. Are you asking "what is the single most significant metric in terms of overall impact on general happiness" or are you asking "which organization is doing the best job of tracking overall satisfaction in different nations"? The OECD index linked above is a good one for exploring possible answers to the first question (you can prioritize different statistics and see how they affect overall rankings) and a pretty good answer to the second (treat all parameters as equal and get an overall snapshot of the nation's well-being). Another one you could look at would be the World Happiness Report. But I think the best thing you could do would be to pop back into the thread and specify exactly what it is you wanted to ask.
posted by yoink at 11:42 AM on June 24, 2015


Economic inequality.
Change in corruption index over time.


There are countries where people are more-or-less equally poor (e.g. small Micronesian states) and equally rich (e.g. San Marino, Monaco). Singapore has effectively zero corruption, but achieves that through a rather severe law-and-order culture and not-insignificant political oppression. None of these are "improving" by the common understanding of the term.

The OP really just wants the better-life-and-happiness indexes. Trying to narrow down to single metrics will quickly lead you astray.
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 11:52 AM on June 24, 2015 [1 favorite]


Response by poster: I'm looking for a wide survey of metrics. For some people with specific interests, their opinion will be that it's a single metric related to their interest. For others, it will be different. I'm curious to hear different peoples' thinking.
posted by scottso17 at 11:58 AM on June 24, 2015


GDP
Educational attainment
Life expectancy
Infant mortality
Incarceration rate
Disparities for all of the above
posted by entropone at 11:59 AM on June 24, 2015 [1 favorite]


Crime rate
Unemployment rate
posted by kreestar at 12:01 PM on June 24, 2015


The U.N.'s Human Development Index is " a composite statistic of life expectancy, education, and per capita income indicators" (Wikipedia). They also have a large number of Human Development Trends indicators:

Adolescent birth rate (women aged 15-19 years) (births per 1,000 women ages 15-19)
Adult literacy rate, both sexes (% ages 15 and older)
Average annual population growth rate (%)
Carbon dioxide emissions per capita (tonnes)
Change in forest area, 1990/2011 (%)
Children under-five who are stunted (moderate and severe) (%)
Combined gross enrolment in education (both sexes) (%)
Education index
Estimated GNI per capita (PPP), female (Constant 2011 PPP$)
Estimated GNI per capita (PPP), male (Constant 2011 PPP$)
Expected years of schooling (of children) (years)
Expected years of schooling, females (years)
Expected years of schooling, males (years)
Expenditure on education, Public (% of GDP) (%)
Expenditure on health, total (% of GDP)
GDP per capita (2011 PPP $)
Gender Development Index (female to male ratio of HDI)
Gender Inequality Index
GNI per capita in PPP terms (constant 2011 PPP$)
HDI, Female
HDI, Male
Health index
Homicide rate (per 100,000)
Human development index (HDI)
Income Gini coefficient
Income index
Income quintile ratio
Inequality-adjusted education index
Inequality-adjusted HDI
Inequality-adjusted income index
Inequality-adjusted life expectancy index
Intensity of deprivation
Labour force participation rate (female-male ratio)
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Maternal mortality ratio (deaths per 100,000 live births)
Mean years of schooling (females aged 25 years and above) (years)
Mean years of schooling (males aged 25 years and above) (years)
Mean years of schooling (of adults) (years)
Multidimensional poverty index
Overweight children (moderate or severe) (% under age 5)
Parliamentary seats, female to male ratio
Population aged under 5 (millions)
Population in multidimensional poverty (%)
Population living below $1.25 PPP per day (%)
Population living on degraded land (%)
Population with at least secondary education, female/male ratio (Ratio of female to male rates)
Population, female (thousands)
Population, male (thousands)
Population, total both sexes (thousands)
Population, urban (% of population)
Primary school teachers trained to teach (%)
Prison population (per 100,000 people)
Remittance inflows (Workers' remittances and compensation, total received) (% of GDP)
Under-five mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 12:17 PM on June 24, 2015 [1 favorite]


Home ownership, and number of people who own land.

(Owning a home, owning land, means people are more likely to be at least paying attention to local political, infrastructure, and land issues.)

extinctions

air quality

water quality

fish health

infrastructure investment/aging

small farms

commercial real estate prices (not too high, not too low)
posted by amtho at 12:19 PM on June 24, 2015


Oh, also: mean distance to food stores

"walkability"

average driving distance

whether people of different ages are in different geographic areas or mixed together

percentage of medical costs going to overhead vs. paying skilled humans (nurses, doctors, medication fabrication, etc.)

availability of in-person education to everyone (cost of college vs. average annual income, etc.)

***voter understanding of political issues (not just knowledge of politicians) ***
posted by amtho at 12:27 PM on June 24, 2015


The OP really just wants the better-life-and-happiness indexes

What it means to "get better" is highly susceptible to measurement bias. Aggregating indices from various metrics will probably be more robust than selecting any one index.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 12:48 PM on June 24, 2015


Look at the number of people who are emigrating out vs. the number of people who are immigrating in. People will flow out of war zones, then come back when the war is over, for example. And they will migrate to areas of economic opportunity even when there are substantial legal barriers to doing so.

This is a bit problematic because most countries restrict immigration and a few restrict emigration also (North Korea, for example).
posted by Cinnamon Bear at 12:53 PM on June 24, 2015


My thinking is that the political involvement-related stats are likely predictors of future social and happiness indicators.
posted by amtho at 1:07 PM on June 24, 2015


I would look at the worst off groups. How poor are the poorest people? Is life getting better or worse for them? How likely are they to die, or be killed, or be jailed? Are they happier than they used to be? Do the have more access or less than they used to have to stuff that people use to improve their lives--technology, education, entertainment, medical care, etc.? I am much more concerned about that, about whether life is getting better for the people at the bottom, than I am with how rich people are doing or what the average is.
posted by decathecting at 3:36 PM on June 24, 2015


Oh, yes. Income distribution. If most people aren't middle class, then the poor can't have hope, and the rich can't feel really secure.
posted by amtho at 4:07 PM on June 24, 2015


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