What do you think will happen at the end of labor?
September 17, 2013 2:48 PM Subscribe
I like to hypothesize solutions to big problems. This one has me stumped. Is there a way to prevent total societal collapse as technology replaces workers? I've read several futuristic stories set after this shift where robots basically do all the work, but never anything during the process.
What do you think will happen, and is there a way to avoid a total economic meltdown? I'd also really like any reading suggestions you may have, non-fiction or SciFi.
What do you think will happen, and is there a way to avoid a total economic meltdown? I'd also really like any reading suggestions you may have, non-fiction or SciFi.
Oxford just produced a report stating that 45% of US jobs are vulnerable to automation/robotics within the next 20 years.
Here's the Slashdot story to jumpstart your thinking.
posted by unixrat at 2:59 PM on September 17, 2013
Here's the Slashdot story to jumpstart your thinking.
posted by unixrat at 2:59 PM on September 17, 2013
One solution is that people stop working so much. People would spend time on leisure activities, or creating art/culture/writing. And your income from your 5 hours a week would support you just fine.
If you want the socialist angle, the government collects enough taxes to give everyone a very basic standard of living (no vacations or fancy cars, but comfortable shelter and enough food and good health insurance). If you want anything more, you work, and so plenty of people would opt to not work.
Also, there will actually always be jobs, but perhaps just different ones. Having a robot vacuum is nice, but it does not compare to having an actual housecleaner who's able to steam the floor, wash and fold my laundry, and do my dishes.
posted by ethidda at 3:09 PM on September 17, 2013 [2 favorites]
If you want the socialist angle, the government collects enough taxes to give everyone a very basic standard of living (no vacations or fancy cars, but comfortable shelter and enough food and good health insurance). If you want anything more, you work, and so plenty of people would opt to not work.
Also, there will actually always be jobs, but perhaps just different ones. Having a robot vacuum is nice, but it does not compare to having an actual housecleaner who's able to steam the floor, wash and fold my laundry, and do my dishes.
posted by ethidda at 3:09 PM on September 17, 2013 [2 favorites]
If you remove capitalism from the equation and had a vastly reduced populace who own the means of production... We could all sit aorund in the sun listening to the birds drinking fine coffee and chatting with a populace on the other side of the world. Much like I am doing now...
posted by Kerasia at 3:11 PM on September 17, 2013 [3 favorites]
posted by Kerasia at 3:11 PM on September 17, 2013 [3 favorites]
If I'd picked my identity a few years later I would have been the DavidGraeberFanclub. Check out his explanation of the creation of bullshit jobs.
posted by BrunoLatourFanclub at 3:13 PM on September 17, 2013 [1 favorite]
posted by BrunoLatourFanclub at 3:13 PM on September 17, 2013 [1 favorite]
Yes and our overlords (econ professors?) may decide that while any job that requires a human operator in the early 21st century is fully automated, food and board requires a full 12 hour work week. Now what that work will consist of and how it will be used to stratify society, anyone's guess.
Many things such as cars are largely built by robots already thus the shakeup of Detroit. I've seen prototype weeder robots, shaking up farming is ongoing, but perhaps in a good way if small robots replace gigantic farm automation. But it clearly disrupts the folks least able to transition to the information economy. But yes good point, writers like Ian M Banks Culture stories are set in essentially a far future fantasy environment, Charles Stross Accelerando rolls through the singularity with a bit of hand waving. Perhaps some of Kurzweil's writings will cover the transition.
posted by sammyo at 3:15 PM on September 17, 2013 [1 favorite]
Many things such as cars are largely built by robots already thus the shakeup of Detroit. I've seen prototype weeder robots, shaking up farming is ongoing, but perhaps in a good way if small robots replace gigantic farm automation. But it clearly disrupts the folks least able to transition to the information economy. But yes good point, writers like Ian M Banks Culture stories are set in essentially a far future fantasy environment, Charles Stross Accelerando rolls through the singularity with a bit of hand waving. Perhaps some of Kurzweil's writings will cover the transition.
posted by sammyo at 3:15 PM on September 17, 2013 [1 favorite]
Marshal Brain has been writing about this. He used to keep a blog of advances which matched his predictions.
posted by Sophont at 3:20 PM on September 17, 2013
posted by Sophont at 3:20 PM on September 17, 2013
Mod note: Folks to keep this from becoming idle chatfilter, try to link to stuff to read for the OP please? Thank you.
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 3:21 PM on September 17, 2013
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 3:21 PM on September 17, 2013
Something to consider: 20 years ago, many common jobs that form that backbone of some economies today did not exist. There was no consumer Internet, no e-commerce, no mobile platforms, etc etc etc.
So it's reasonable to think that new industries will emerge over the coming decades. The challenge is making sure people are trained for those jobs, rather than working at WalMart.
posted by KokuRyu at 3:33 PM on September 17, 2013 [1 favorite]
So it's reasonable to think that new industries will emerge over the coming decades. The challenge is making sure people are trained for those jobs, rather than working at WalMart.
posted by KokuRyu at 3:33 PM on September 17, 2013 [1 favorite]
The documentary Welcome to India 2012 might tend to support your point of view that incredibly cheap and plentiful human resources hardly implies a utopia, but there's no collapse either. I think it's pretty limited as a vision of the future anywhere else, but it's as much worth contemplating as any post-scarcity SF.
posted by Monsieur Caution at 3:54 PM on September 17, 2013 [1 favorite]
posted by Monsieur Caution at 3:54 PM on September 17, 2013 [1 favorite]
Something to consider is that mechanization isn't the only social force that influences this. Industrialization and automation could have given us a utopian 5 hour work week some time in the '40s. It would have looked a lot different though. Folks in the '20s didn't see a need to buy a lot of junk. Some good tools, a house, and you were set. But all the amazing efficient means of production, combined with a falling demand didn't look good for long term profits, so companies started looking into advertising and marketing science. There was a concerted effort to engineer the desires of the population for new, always improving stuff. This created the consumer culture we live in, where the basic design of a car has barely changed in 60 years, but each year a new model is heralded as the next biggest must have thing. And instead of robots and computers making our live easier, we work longer and longer hours so we can buy the newest fancy gadgets which are coming at a faster and faster pace.
And I think there is some cultural component to think about - if people lose their jobs they are often despondent, depressed, and suicidal. At least in America, work has replaced community as the source of meaning for a lot of folks. What the hell would you do with yourself if you didn't need to work? And what would people think of you when they found out? Not that there aren't things to do that give meaning besides work, just that it might be hard for a lot of people to navigate.
Some books to consider are All Consuming Images, about the birth of the marketing sciences and consumer culture, and What Then Must We Do, by Gar Alperovitz. Gar's book doesn't deal directly with what you are asking about but it's about worker owned, cooperative businesses as a way to deal with some of the economic challenges we face.
A good video about the creation of the consumer society is the BBC's The Century of the Self, available freely all over the internet so just google it if you're interested.
Hope that's helpful!
posted by natteringnabob at 4:22 PM on September 17, 2013 [4 favorites]
And I think there is some cultural component to think about - if people lose their jobs they are often despondent, depressed, and suicidal. At least in America, work has replaced community as the source of meaning for a lot of folks. What the hell would you do with yourself if you didn't need to work? And what would people think of you when they found out? Not that there aren't things to do that give meaning besides work, just that it might be hard for a lot of people to navigate.
Some books to consider are All Consuming Images, about the birth of the marketing sciences and consumer culture, and What Then Must We Do, by Gar Alperovitz. Gar's book doesn't deal directly with what you are asking about but it's about worker owned, cooperative businesses as a way to deal with some of the economic challenges we face.
A good video about the creation of the consumer society is the BBC's The Century of the Self, available freely all over the internet so just google it if you're interested.
Hope that's helpful!
posted by natteringnabob at 4:22 PM on September 17, 2013 [4 favorites]
Andre Gorz wrote 'A Farewell to the Working Class' about this issue. He had this crazy idea that people would work for capitalists less and less, and that voluntary hobby type production, from non-alienated workers who cared about what they were doing, would become more important.
posted by pompomtom at 5:17 PM on September 17, 2013
posted by pompomtom at 5:17 PM on September 17, 2013
Non-fiction - Jared Diamond's "Collapse". Facts on societies that did collapse and why.
"World Made by Hand" by Kunstler. Near future dystopia triggered by peak oil.
"Makers" by Cory Doctorow. A bit more positive. The impact of 3d printing/maker culture, and other thoughts.
Personally, I don't think you can use history as a guide. With massive overpopulation, dwindling resources, a biosphere in danger, climate extremes, the rise of superbugs, the numbers saying we are overdue for a pandemic that will go global very quickly, pervasive and ever-increasing computer power, the race to the bottom by outsourcing, etc. put us in a unique position.
posted by PickeringPete at 6:48 PM on September 17, 2013
"World Made by Hand" by Kunstler. Near future dystopia triggered by peak oil.
"Makers" by Cory Doctorow. A bit more positive. The impact of 3d printing/maker culture, and other thoughts.
Personally, I don't think you can use history as a guide. With massive overpopulation, dwindling resources, a biosphere in danger, climate extremes, the rise of superbugs, the numbers saying we are overdue for a pandemic that will go global very quickly, pervasive and ever-increasing computer power, the race to the bottom by outsourcing, etc. put us in a unique position.
posted by PickeringPete at 6:48 PM on September 17, 2013
As an example of looking to the past to predict the future, look at the story of how railroads replaced canals in the 1800's. Here's one article, but it's just a sample.
Basically, the canals and their owners were on top of the world. They were rich, prominent citizens who held positions of power and employed lots of workers. As railroads started to come into being, the government tried to impose taxes and restrictive laws to protect the canals (guess who was "the government"), but the railroads had too many things in its favor (convenience, price to build, etc). At the end, a lot of specific people lost their jobs or their fortunes, but if you look at the overall employment and wealth statistics for the transportation industry in general, a lot more people came out ahead rather than behind.
posted by CathyG at 8:04 PM on September 17, 2013
Basically, the canals and their owners were on top of the world. They were rich, prominent citizens who held positions of power and employed lots of workers. As railroads started to come into being, the government tried to impose taxes and restrictive laws to protect the canals (guess who was "the government"), but the railroads had too many things in its favor (convenience, price to build, etc). At the end, a lot of specific people lost their jobs or their fortunes, but if you look at the overall employment and wealth statistics for the transportation industry in general, a lot more people came out ahead rather than behind.
posted by CathyG at 8:04 PM on September 17, 2013
Technology can replace workers who act as cogs in a machine, but it can't replace ideas and the way humans interact with each other. There are some things that humans have to do... until robots can think and be creative, that is.
posted by AppleTurnover at 12:17 AM on September 18, 2013
posted by AppleTurnover at 12:17 AM on September 18, 2013
I read The End of Work (Jeremy Rifkin) back when it was new. Rifkin's general idea is that the loss of jobs due to technology advances would lead to a "third sector" or volunteer/civic welfare jobs. Their purpose would be to fill the holes left by corporations who no longer need strong civil infrastructure to support their business. It would be funded by the government- partly via corporate taxation and partly by redirecting military spending.
Many people feel that Rifkin is a crackpot, but the book gives you a lot to think about even it's all wrong.
posted by bluejayway at 10:12 AM on September 18, 2013
Many people feel that Rifkin is a crackpot, but the book gives you a lot to think about even it's all wrong.
posted by bluejayway at 10:12 AM on September 18, 2013
The question mentions technology, but outsourcing has similar impacts. In the rich countries the number of jobs whose productivity allows a living wage to be paid is falling. I think it's very likely that we shall have to decouple income from labour, unless we want to see more impoverishment of people without financially rewarding skills. Addressing the problem are schemes like a Guaranteed Minimum Income, or a Citizens' Income.
posted by TristanPK at 12:41 PM on September 18, 2013
posted by TristanPK at 12:41 PM on September 18, 2013
Response by poster: And in a timely fashion, the blue has a FPP about it:
http://www.metafilter.com/132265/Singularity-flip-side
posted by domo at 9:35 AM on September 26, 2013
http://www.metafilter.com/132265/Singularity-flip-side
posted by domo at 9:35 AM on September 26, 2013
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It's because society adapts, innovation, education, new products and industries create new jobs. Presumably/hopefully this will continue in the future.
posted by goethean at 2:54 PM on September 17, 2013 [2 favorites]