What will be the dominant influences on the world in the next 100 years?
June 19, 2013 2:17 AM Subscribe
A friend and I were discussing the fact that to have a reasonable understanding of the present-day developed world, it's useful to understand concepts from computer science and engineering to have an idea of how the internet works, how machine learning works and so on. What will be the most important fields and areas of knowledge of the next century?
Computing in general is a dominant factor in this era. However, my friend and I come form a fairly blinkered tech-focused world and realised that outside of it we're not sure what other areas of knowledge (most likely scientific, but I guess not necessarily) are likely to be highly impactful on a global scale over the next century.
Biotechnology would be one I'd assume, and nanotechnology. Small-scale manufacturing from 3D printers is already here. What else? Or to put this another way, if you were putting together a manual of topics to cover to have more than a superficial knowledge of the next century, what would you put in there?
Computing in general is a dominant factor in this era. However, my friend and I come form a fairly blinkered tech-focused world and realised that outside of it we're not sure what other areas of knowledge (most likely scientific, but I guess not necessarily) are likely to be highly impactful on a global scale over the next century.
Biotechnology would be one I'd assume, and nanotechnology. Small-scale manufacturing from 3D printers is already here. What else? Or to put this another way, if you were putting together a manual of topics to cover to have more than a superficial knowledge of the next century, what would you put in there?
Personalized medicine and other developments in drug discovery
Agriculture that will fight hunger, if it can overcome political hurdles
posted by knile at 3:19 AM on June 19, 2013
Agriculture that will fight hunger, if it can overcome political hurdles
posted by knile at 3:19 AM on June 19, 2013
Big data - manipulation, commercialisation and who knows.
posted by biffa at 3:43 AM on June 19, 2013
posted by biffa at 3:43 AM on June 19, 2013
Best answer: 1) Computer vision may be able to identify and interpret marks like footprints. The huge drop in price in gene sequencing will make it easier and easier to exactly identify living things from the traces of material they leave in their wake. Together these technologies could augment traditional tracking to let us reconstruct a picture of recent events in a particular location, with high accuracy.
2) Communication among animals might become clearer. It's possible that they come much closer to talking to each other than we realize (see recent post on prairie dogs), and we just haven't learned to understand them yet. It's possible we'll learn to talk to animals, and the world 100 years from now will be filled with much more and more varied conversation.
3) The world human population will probably drop for several decades out of the next 100 years. This will be a major novel feature of the world, and it will provoke a lot of debate over causes. New lines of thinking about people and society (not necessarily pleasant ones) seem likely to develop.
4) Mounting severe weather events will cause geoengineering solutions to be tried to combat global warming. We may try injecting sulfur into the stratosphere to simulate a large volcanic eruption, which should work to cool the planet.
5) A Renaissance in economics might emerge from the observation that the Earth only has a few centuries of economic growth left before we reach the waste heat radiation capacity of the planet. If economists catch on that economic _growth_ is a transient historical phase, and dynamic equilibrium is the norm, they might come up with some new useful ideas.
Trying to imagine 100 years into the future by looking into the past, 1913 was a rough time. There was a huge increase in pressure 1910-1914 that manifested in a lot of groundbreaking art. Then there was a massive grim war.
There doesn't seem to be pressure like that now, but instead a marked calm and prosperity, with a lot of technological problems being solved and the old Third World improving fast. Drop in population along with rapid technological advance and stability in international relations could mean a quite peaceful and prosperous century, like maybe the 14th century after the Black Death killed so much of Europe and shifted the power relationship between nobles and serfs.
posted by kadonoishi at 3:48 AM on June 19, 2013 [12 favorites]
2) Communication among animals might become clearer. It's possible that they come much closer to talking to each other than we realize (see recent post on prairie dogs), and we just haven't learned to understand them yet. It's possible we'll learn to talk to animals, and the world 100 years from now will be filled with much more and more varied conversation.
3) The world human population will probably drop for several decades out of the next 100 years. This will be a major novel feature of the world, and it will provoke a lot of debate over causes. New lines of thinking about people and society (not necessarily pleasant ones) seem likely to develop.
4) Mounting severe weather events will cause geoengineering solutions to be tried to combat global warming. We may try injecting sulfur into the stratosphere to simulate a large volcanic eruption, which should work to cool the planet.
5) A Renaissance in economics might emerge from the observation that the Earth only has a few centuries of economic growth left before we reach the waste heat radiation capacity of the planet. If economists catch on that economic _growth_ is a transient historical phase, and dynamic equilibrium is the norm, they might come up with some new useful ideas.
Trying to imagine 100 years into the future by looking into the past, 1913 was a rough time. There was a huge increase in pressure 1910-1914 that manifested in a lot of groundbreaking art. Then there was a massive grim war.
There doesn't seem to be pressure like that now, but instead a marked calm and prosperity, with a lot of technological problems being solved and the old Third World improving fast. Drop in population along with rapid technological advance and stability in international relations could mean a quite peaceful and prosperous century, like maybe the 14th century after the Black Death killed so much of Europe and shifted the power relationship between nobles and serfs.
posted by kadonoishi at 3:48 AM on June 19, 2013 [12 favorites]
art is being produced more than ever with the whole internet shebang, and I imagine it's influence is only going to grow.
posted by ahtlast93 at 3:48 AM on June 19, 2013
posted by ahtlast93 at 3:48 AM on June 19, 2013
Best answer: My approach would be to extend the trends we've already been seeing for the last 100 years and see how they would play out in the next hundred. One of the biggest trends has been automation. In the middle 20th century, this was mostly in heavy industrial manufacturing, but the last 10-15 years have shown that improved computing will spread this into formerly "human-only" positions. Over the next 100 years, we are going to see automation in sales, service, transportation, law, medicine, etc. This will start in performance of these tasks, but eventually the managment and decision making in these areas will be automated.
Right now, doctors do surgery with robotic assistance. Robots will do pre-programmed surgeries under a doctor's supervision. Eventually, AI will decide when surgery is needed and order it, within protocols designed by doctors. If there's an accident, legal AIs will construct a suit citing other cases it pulled from legal data bases. A human lawyer will merely sign off on motions compiled by the AI; and may have to show up in court, in an increasingly quaint formality.
The other trend we have seen is applying certain business models to more fields. This will turn more professional occupations into services ones; we'll see lawyers and doctors go the way of journalists currently, and manufactuers previously, and we will see a decline in the "middle-class elite".
posted by spaltavian at 5:16 AM on June 19, 2013 [3 favorites]
Right now, doctors do surgery with robotic assistance. Robots will do pre-programmed surgeries under a doctor's supervision. Eventually, AI will decide when surgery is needed and order it, within protocols designed by doctors. If there's an accident, legal AIs will construct a suit citing other cases it pulled from legal data bases. A human lawyer will merely sign off on motions compiled by the AI; and may have to show up in court, in an increasingly quaint formality.
The other trend we have seen is applying certain business models to more fields. This will turn more professional occupations into services ones; we'll see lawyers and doctors go the way of journalists currently, and manufactuers previously, and we will see a decline in the "middle-class elite".
posted by spaltavian at 5:16 AM on June 19, 2013 [3 favorites]
This reminds me of a five year plan. WHen I worked at Martin (Lockheed), we did one every year. Even in that extremely limited environment, we were highly inaccurate.
However, I think this is a good exercise. I haven't stopped to do it, myself. If I were, I'd ask:
What problems would be really important to solve?
What is being actively worked on right now?
Where is the money being spent and who is doing the work? Likelihood of success?
What are the undeniable aspects of our present circumstances that are likely to be persistent and or coast-phase?
I see a few major variables:
Energy limitations and or lack thereof.
Un-plannable catastrophes (meteor strikes, etc.)
Population dynamics (pandemics, moderated growth, shrinking)
Tech constraints
AI and/or machine assisted humanity / cybernetics
The future is like standing at the north pole. All first steps are south. We stand in the present, and all first steps are forward. There is an infinity of potential paths. Choose any single ONE and you will be correct, but the problem is not so much 'how will the future be?' as much as 'what is the present like?' Even on what seems such an easily accounted scene, I honestly do not believe we can say with confidence what we HAVE, let alone what we will have.
The best one can do as a futurist is to project trends (if you know them), categorize major constraints, and imagine potential paths in the absence of those constraints. There are lots of 70's era tomes on the future that tried this. The Limits to Growth (Club of Rome), Toffler's "The Futurists", and more recently, "The New Humanists" explore some paths and are old enough to assess accuracy.
I think it's fair to observe that no one predicted the iPhone and it has changed the world in five years. We're one perfect energy source or one sentient machine or one nuclear war away from entirely different universes. If a toy can do what the iPhone did, imagine a fundamental constraint lifted (as in unlimited energy) or delivered (like a major pandemic).
Good question. I will follow this one and look forward to long responses. (Cannot hope it will be as long as a cat stuck on a ledge post, but hey, one has to hope.)
posted by FauxScot at 5:26 AM on June 19, 2013 [3 favorites]
However, I think this is a good exercise. I haven't stopped to do it, myself. If I were, I'd ask:
What problems would be really important to solve?
What is being actively worked on right now?
Where is the money being spent and who is doing the work? Likelihood of success?
What are the undeniable aspects of our present circumstances that are likely to be persistent and or coast-phase?
I see a few major variables:
Energy limitations and or lack thereof.
Un-plannable catastrophes (meteor strikes, etc.)
Population dynamics (pandemics, moderated growth, shrinking)
Tech constraints
AI and/or machine assisted humanity / cybernetics
The future is like standing at the north pole. All first steps are south. We stand in the present, and all first steps are forward. There is an infinity of potential paths. Choose any single ONE and you will be correct, but the problem is not so much 'how will the future be?' as much as 'what is the present like?' Even on what seems such an easily accounted scene, I honestly do not believe we can say with confidence what we HAVE, let alone what we will have.
The best one can do as a futurist is to project trends (if you know them), categorize major constraints, and imagine potential paths in the absence of those constraints. There are lots of 70's era tomes on the future that tried this. The Limits to Growth (Club of Rome), Toffler's "The Futurists", and more recently, "The New Humanists" explore some paths and are old enough to assess accuracy.
I think it's fair to observe that no one predicted the iPhone and it has changed the world in five years. We're one perfect energy source or one sentient machine or one nuclear war away from entirely different universes. If a toy can do what the iPhone did, imagine a fundamental constraint lifted (as in unlimited energy) or delivered (like a major pandemic).
Good question. I will follow this one and look forward to long responses. (Cannot hope it will be as long as a cat stuck on a ledge post, but hey, one has to hope.)
posted by FauxScot at 5:26 AM on June 19, 2013 [3 favorites]
Quality of life.
Over the past 100 years we've improved quality of life in lots of exciting ways through healthcare improvements and technological progression. But we are also reaching a point where technology and science are not necessarily pulling us in ways that improve our quality of life. For example - we can prolong certain people's lives for x time. But are we improving their quality of life? We can now be wired into the digital world 24/7, but at what point does it negatively impact quality of life or produce only marginal gains.
Political revolution.
The next 100 years hold no guarantee that they be more stable than the period 1913-2013. America, Britain and others will be made to pay dearly for their colonial and neocolonial pasts, their dominance of the UN and institutions such as the World Bank and IMF, their subversion of political independence in far flung countries etc. The radical shift in power from Europe and America to China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Africa will not always be pretty. Control of mineral resources will be fierce. The shift in power to other countries will also bring change domestically because it will not improve the situation for the underclass, working class or middle class who will all bear the brunt of diminishing western influence politically, economically and culturally.
Machine-human interactions.
So this is the stuff of sci fi writers since the dawn of time. But it won't be a robot butler bringing you an ice cold beer. We're laying the framework now for mass machine-to-machine communications now. We've already delegated a tremendous number of human decisions to the programmers and protocol makers who tell machines what to do. Machine-human interaction will become a huge civil rights focus because we're not delegating control to robots. We're delegating control to the people who tell robots what to do. We're delegating our privacy to the people who know how to leverage big data to know something about us - sometimes even before we know it.
Sharing.
20th century society, for developed economies, is not a sharing society. Well, sometimes it is. The next 100 years will see a reverse of where we do and don't share. We will have to share stuff more because it will be more expensive, and because it will make sense. For example, driverless cars make owning a car that sits outside your home a ridiculous proposition. One of the outputs of big data and virtualisation is that it will be easier to share. And there will be big incentives to share, and business opportunities around enabling sharing. But there will also be pressure against sharing because at wider level it is immensely disruptive politically. It breaks winner takes all capitalism. But we will also share less about ourselves at some point. Not quite yet, but we have not yet seen the first generation of people who've really had to live with a society in which information about people has become so prevalent, where people will have to think much more carefully about their public and private personas.
Teleportation and replication.
We can perform teleportation now, of course. I can send you an image across the globe in the blink of an eye. You can use a 3D printer to make something I designed 10 minutes ago. At the same time we are learning much more about how to replicate living stuff - we've nailed how to replicate a lot of non-living stuff. Teleportation is fascinating because the science - quantum teleportation -suggests it is possible. We assume currently that we'll have to destroy anything we teleport. Which is why advances in replication may also play a part, as will a greater understanding of how the brain works. At any rate, advances in teleportation and replication will raise interesting legal and ethical questions about essence, ownership and personhood, just as advances like IVF and surrogacy raise questions about parenthood.
posted by MuffinMan at 5:26 AM on June 19, 2013 [3 favorites]
Over the past 100 years we've improved quality of life in lots of exciting ways through healthcare improvements and technological progression. But we are also reaching a point where technology and science are not necessarily pulling us in ways that improve our quality of life. For example - we can prolong certain people's lives for x time. But are we improving their quality of life? We can now be wired into the digital world 24/7, but at what point does it negatively impact quality of life or produce only marginal gains.
Political revolution.
The next 100 years hold no guarantee that they be more stable than the period 1913-2013. America, Britain and others will be made to pay dearly for their colonial and neocolonial pasts, their dominance of the UN and institutions such as the World Bank and IMF, their subversion of political independence in far flung countries etc. The radical shift in power from Europe and America to China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Africa will not always be pretty. Control of mineral resources will be fierce. The shift in power to other countries will also bring change domestically because it will not improve the situation for the underclass, working class or middle class who will all bear the brunt of diminishing western influence politically, economically and culturally.
Machine-human interactions.
So this is the stuff of sci fi writers since the dawn of time. But it won't be a robot butler bringing you an ice cold beer. We're laying the framework now for mass machine-to-machine communications now. We've already delegated a tremendous number of human decisions to the programmers and protocol makers who tell machines what to do. Machine-human interaction will become a huge civil rights focus because we're not delegating control to robots. We're delegating control to the people who tell robots what to do. We're delegating our privacy to the people who know how to leverage big data to know something about us - sometimes even before we know it.
Sharing.
20th century society, for developed economies, is not a sharing society. Well, sometimes it is. The next 100 years will see a reverse of where we do and don't share. We will have to share stuff more because it will be more expensive, and because it will make sense. For example, driverless cars make owning a car that sits outside your home a ridiculous proposition. One of the outputs of big data and virtualisation is that it will be easier to share. And there will be big incentives to share, and business opportunities around enabling sharing. But there will also be pressure against sharing because at wider level it is immensely disruptive politically. It breaks winner takes all capitalism. But we will also share less about ourselves at some point. Not quite yet, but we have not yet seen the first generation of people who've really had to live with a society in which information about people has become so prevalent, where people will have to think much more carefully about their public and private personas.
Teleportation and replication.
We can perform teleportation now, of course. I can send you an image across the globe in the blink of an eye. You can use a 3D printer to make something I designed 10 minutes ago. At the same time we are learning much more about how to replicate living stuff - we've nailed how to replicate a lot of non-living stuff. Teleportation is fascinating because the science - quantum teleportation -suggests it is possible. We assume currently that we'll have to destroy anything we teleport. Which is why advances in replication may also play a part, as will a greater understanding of how the brain works. At any rate, advances in teleportation and replication will raise interesting legal and ethical questions about essence, ownership and personhood, just as advances like IVF and surrogacy raise questions about parenthood.
posted by MuffinMan at 5:26 AM on June 19, 2013 [3 favorites]
Water quality and availability.
posted by carmicha at 5:28 AM on June 19, 2013 [6 favorites]
posted by carmicha at 5:28 AM on June 19, 2013 [6 favorites]
More and more leadership by women — in national governments, international organizations, corporations, institutions.
A shrinking world population, quite possibly as early as 2025.
Some fairly desperate measures (geoengineering as mentioned) are taken by 2040 to stabilize climate and halt ocean acidification and rising ocean levels.
posted by beagle at 5:44 AM on June 19, 2013
A shrinking world population, quite possibly as early as 2025.
Some fairly desperate measures (geoengineering as mentioned) are taken by 2040 to stabilize climate and halt ocean acidification and rising ocean levels.
posted by beagle at 5:44 AM on June 19, 2013
Can I rephrase the question so I am sure I understand? Are you asking what are the things someone should start learning about now in order to not get left behind by the march of progress? Like how many of our parents and grandparents got lost in the working world when computers started becoming ubiquitous?
My answer would have to be statistics, probability and math in general. Data storage and communication is moving past the original digital "on" and "off" paradigm to a more probabilistic paradigm. People will be terrified of self-driving cars, even though they will in all likelihood be much safer than human drivers. People who don't understand things like vectors and macro movements of energy will be lost.
More and more leadership by women — in national governments, international organizations, corporations, institutions.
Absolutely. Women are earning more advanced degrees now, and much more in many of the sciences. If you watch the Jeopardy college and high school challenges, the mix is almost always 2 women to 1 male. As opposed to the regular game where it's usually the opposite. People who have internal biases against women in positions of leadership and knowledge will soon start falling behind.
posted by gjc at 6:24 AM on June 19, 2013 [1 favorite]
My answer would have to be statistics, probability and math in general. Data storage and communication is moving past the original digital "on" and "off" paradigm to a more probabilistic paradigm. People will be terrified of self-driving cars, even though they will in all likelihood be much safer than human drivers. People who don't understand things like vectors and macro movements of energy will be lost.
More and more leadership by women — in national governments, international organizations, corporations, institutions.
Absolutely. Women are earning more advanced degrees now, and much more in many of the sciences. If you watch the Jeopardy college and high school challenges, the mix is almost always 2 women to 1 male. As opposed to the regular game where it's usually the opposite. People who have internal biases against women in positions of leadership and knowledge will soon start falling behind.
posted by gjc at 6:24 AM on June 19, 2013 [1 favorite]
I'd guess that the best guess is "Something unknown" or "Something we haven't thought much about" rather than "The following extensions of existing trends and research."
I mean, imagine you were asking this in 1913. Some of the things that a modern 20th Century person might benefit from learning about, especially if they wanted to be ahead of the curve, would be steam power, railroad expansion, the management of colonial empires, and battleships as the single greatest tool of foreign relations. You might or might not identify automobiles as the industry to watch. A crazy person might correctly predict that aviation would become important but almost certainly for wackadoo reasons. Nobody but nobody would have predicted ubiquitous computing. Perfectly decent people might have suggested that a big topic for the next hundred years would be the improvement of the white race (does not include Irish or Italians) through eugenics.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 7:07 AM on June 19, 2013 [2 favorites]
I mean, imagine you were asking this in 1913. Some of the things that a modern 20th Century person might benefit from learning about, especially if they wanted to be ahead of the curve, would be steam power, railroad expansion, the management of colonial empires, and battleships as the single greatest tool of foreign relations. You might or might not identify automobiles as the industry to watch. A crazy person might correctly predict that aviation would become important but almost certainly for wackadoo reasons. Nobody but nobody would have predicted ubiquitous computing. Perfectly decent people might have suggested that a big topic for the next hundred years would be the improvement of the white race (does not include Irish or Italians) through eugenics.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 7:07 AM on June 19, 2013 [2 favorites]
I suspect that a key thing to understand will be immunology and health defense, as we are likely to be living in a pre-antibiotic era not that far from now, so knowing how to assess medical studies and make the right health and safety choices could be critical to survival.
posted by acm at 7:08 AM on June 19, 2013
posted by acm at 7:08 AM on June 19, 2013
Genetic Engineering will be seen as being just as important and influential in 2050 as Computer Engineering is seen now.
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 7:22 AM on June 19, 2013 [1 favorite]
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 7:22 AM on June 19, 2013 [1 favorite]
Over the past 100 years or so we have automated a lot of work that was mechanically repetitive and dull. Over the past 20 years information technology has let us add many low end jobs from the service economy to that list. Now the tasks sitting on the "to be automated" list sit squarely where most many middle class people make their jobs: teaching, driving and probably whatever you are doing right now if you are at work.
We still label those who resist automation as Luddites and we incorrectly seem to recall that Luddites were simple minded, self interested saboteurs. I predict that the whole debate of whether we should automate something (given that we technically could do so and that it might be economically advantageous) will start to become very politically and culturally important.
For similar reasons the economic construction of working life other than a 40 hour week with a two week holiday - done from 20 something until 60 something - is going to get replaced with some new norm or other.
posted by rongorongo at 7:29 AM on June 19, 2013 [1 favorite]
We still label those who resist automation as Luddites and we incorrectly seem to recall that Luddites were simple minded, self interested saboteurs. I predict that the whole debate of whether we should automate something (given that we technically could do so and that it might be economically advantageous) will start to become very politically and culturally important.
For similar reasons the economic construction of working life other than a 40 hour week with a two week holiday - done from 20 something until 60 something - is going to get replaced with some new norm or other.
posted by rongorongo at 7:29 AM on June 19, 2013 [1 favorite]
Genetic Engineering will be seen as being just as important and influential in 2050 as Computer Engineering is seen now.
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 10:22 AM on June 19 [+] [!]
AND
Perfectly decent people might have suggested that a big topic for the next hundred years would be the improvement of the white race (does not include Irish or Italians) through eugenics.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 10:07 AM on June 19 [+] [!]
These things cannot co-exist. Like birth-control and abortion, genetic engineering of both humans and foodstuffs will be debated endlessly.
I would avoid controversial subjects and concentrate on the needs of large Asian nations as they grow and become major players. Water, food, fuel will all be battlefronts. Engineering solutions for these are essential to growth.
posted by Gungho at 7:42 AM on June 19, 2013
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 10:22 AM on June 19 [+] [!]
AND
Perfectly decent people might have suggested that a big topic for the next hundred years would be the improvement of the white race (does not include Irish or Italians) through eugenics.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 10:07 AM on June 19 [+] [!]
These things cannot co-exist. Like birth-control and abortion, genetic engineering of both humans and foodstuffs will be debated endlessly.
I would avoid controversial subjects and concentrate on the needs of large Asian nations as they grow and become major players. Water, food, fuel will all be battlefronts. Engineering solutions for these are essential to growth.
posted by Gungho at 7:42 AM on June 19, 2013
Some of the things that a modern 20th Century person might benefit from learning about, especially if they wanted to be ahead of the curve, would be steam power, railroad expansion, the management of colonial empires, and battleships as the single greatest tool of foreign relations.
So, in other words, globalization? Specifics change, but trends are fairly consistent.
posted by spaltavian at 8:02 AM on June 19, 2013
So, in other words, globalization? Specifics change, but trends are fairly consistent.
posted by spaltavian at 8:02 AM on June 19, 2013
Quantum computing will reduce simulation time - sims that used to take days weeks or months will be done in seconds. This will impact design and research. Design time to markets will decrease rapidly, so our "gadget" advancement will hit warp speed. Research and modeling will take off, and modeling complex systems like weather will become child's play.
Low frequency long range wireless transmission will take off. This will enable device tracking on a micro scale. We can watch every milk carton that walks out the door. Animals can be tracked. Children too! (Ugh helicopter parents.) Our homes energy and water usage will be sent directly to a tower that will read it and email us a bill.
Statistics - Population tracking "big data" - We may even allow our smart phones to gather more data on us and aggregate. They can see "cold trends" when the flu moves through different geographic areas and traffic will be addressed similarly.
Nanotechnology - medicine and clothing. Our health will be monitored daily for micro signs of disease.
For those who say "something we haven't thought of" -- the reason why Jules Verne was so prescient was because he hung out with the scientists of the day. Of course 1,000 years ago they never thought a computer would exist, but if we're talking 100 years then absolutely you have to extrapolate from current research.
posted by St. Peepsburg at 8:08 AM on June 19, 2013
Low frequency long range wireless transmission will take off. This will enable device tracking on a micro scale. We can watch every milk carton that walks out the door. Animals can be tracked. Children too! (Ugh helicopter parents.) Our homes energy and water usage will be sent directly to a tower that will read it and email us a bill.
Statistics - Population tracking "big data" - We may even allow our smart phones to gather more data on us and aggregate. They can see "cold trends" when the flu moves through different geographic areas and traffic will be addressed similarly.
Nanotechnology - medicine and clothing. Our health will be monitored daily for micro signs of disease.
For those who say "something we haven't thought of" -- the reason why Jules Verne was so prescient was because he hung out with the scientists of the day. Of course 1,000 years ago they never thought a computer would exist, but if we're talking 100 years then absolutely you have to extrapolate from current research.
posted by St. Peepsburg at 8:08 AM on June 19, 2013
There is a maxim called Amara's law, "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run." That being said, if I were asked to make general predictions, I think that genetic engineering/eugenics will increase based on current trends. I think that this will continue to take the form of parents deciding what kind of child they want to have and in the future, they will have more options from which to choose.
There is already more people who want to work than there are jobs. The economy will continue to become more efficient in this regard. On a related note, society will continue the trend of increased cognitive stratification.
I do not think that there will be a transporter or replicator such as is depicted in Star Trek. I do not think that there will be sentient AI.
I think this sort of prediction, with any degree of accuracy, is nigh impossible to do. I do not think that any person in 1913 did predict or could have predicted the state of the world in 2013. A case in point would be the book 1984, which is acclaimed as being oh-so-predictive. However, it utterly failed to predict the role of the computer - Winston Smith does his propaganda work for the state by rearranging sections of texts rather than any sort of word processing. All of the "predictions" that are "true" are for things that already existed when the book was written, such as television (the viewscreens) and nuclear weapons. Even in the short term, we cannot make these predictions, as FauxScot has noted. Did the year 2001 look anything like the movie "2001"? I do not think 2015 will look very much like its depiction in Back to the Future II.
posted by Tanizaki at 8:41 AM on June 19, 2013
There is already more people who want to work than there are jobs. The economy will continue to become more efficient in this regard. On a related note, society will continue the trend of increased cognitive stratification.
I do not think that there will be a transporter or replicator such as is depicted in Star Trek. I do not think that there will be sentient AI.
I think this sort of prediction, with any degree of accuracy, is nigh impossible to do. I do not think that any person in 1913 did predict or could have predicted the state of the world in 2013. A case in point would be the book 1984, which is acclaimed as being oh-so-predictive. However, it utterly failed to predict the role of the computer - Winston Smith does his propaganda work for the state by rearranging sections of texts rather than any sort of word processing. All of the "predictions" that are "true" are for things that already existed when the book was written, such as television (the viewscreens) and nuclear weapons. Even in the short term, we cannot make these predictions, as FauxScot has noted. Did the year 2001 look anything like the movie "2001"? I do not think 2015 will look very much like its depiction in Back to the Future II.
posted by Tanizaki at 8:41 AM on June 19, 2013
For some island nations, Sea Level Rise.
Except in North Carolina (unfortunate in-joke).
posted by oceanjesse at 8:54 AM on June 19, 2013 [1 favorite]
Except in North Carolina (unfortunate in-joke).
posted by oceanjesse at 8:54 AM on June 19, 2013 [1 favorite]
Anti-aging and disease treatment technologies.
Weapons systems (laser, sound, heat, cyber, remote and machine controlled, who knows what else).
Cross-border tribes (affiliations among people of common values, outlooks, etc. regardless of nationality) (I'm not sure if there's an existing term for what I'm describing but I presume so).
Climate (hotter temperatures, stronger storms, volatility).
Computer processing speed.
Public transportation systems that reduce reliance on individually driven vehicles.
Solar energy.
posted by Dansaman at 9:17 AM on June 19, 2013
Weapons systems (laser, sound, heat, cyber, remote and machine controlled, who knows what else).
Cross-border tribes (affiliations among people of common values, outlooks, etc. regardless of nationality) (I'm not sure if there's an existing term for what I'm describing but I presume so).
Climate (hotter temperatures, stronger storms, volatility).
Computer processing speed.
Public transportation systems that reduce reliance on individually driven vehicles.
Solar energy.
posted by Dansaman at 9:17 AM on June 19, 2013
Potential surprise scenario: The end of absolute poverty by 2030, and along with it, the end of hunger, stabilization and then reduction of population, the adoption of zero-growth economics, and less and less violence at all levels (wars, crimes).
posted by beagle at 10:04 AM on June 19, 2013
posted by beagle at 10:04 AM on June 19, 2013
Now that the Higgs Boson has been found, I think there's about a 50% chance that in the next hundred years there will be a major breakthrough in energy generation: direct conversion of mass into energy, without the bother of messing with fission or fusion.
Like most major breakthroughs, this one is likely to be both blessing and curse. It could bring about an era of cheap and plentiful energy world-wide. It could also make possible weapons which could make a fusion bomb look like a firecracker. I think I'm glad I'm old enough so that I'm unlikely to be around by then.
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 11:15 AM on June 19, 2013 [1 favorite]
Like most major breakthroughs, this one is likely to be both blessing and curse. It could bring about an era of cheap and plentiful energy world-wide. It could also make possible weapons which could make a fusion bomb look like a firecracker. I think I'm glad I'm old enough so that I'm unlikely to be around by then.
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 11:15 AM on June 19, 2013 [1 favorite]
When I think of potential dominant points of view, I see them in light of how they overturn the accepted truth of our present century. Two come to mind:
1) Ecological truth: It has been said that Communism failed because it couldn't assimilate market truth. Capitalism will be seen as a failure because it couldn't create an incentive to avoid ecological catastrophe.
2) Non-growth economics: It is okay to have a society with the same level of wealth, productivity and standard of living today as they had 30 years ago. This is the norm over most of history and the expectation of growth was never a sustainable or rational basis for operating an economy and retirement planning for all society.
I can sort of see how my great-great grandchildren will talk about our present generation as a bunch of mystics who believed the environment was unchangeable and that growth was infinite. We might as well be phrenologists and using leaches for medicine. Probably the biggest indictment will be that so much excess wealth is squandered on the wealthy, but that is another matter and I'm a little less confident that we'll solve that one in the next hundred years.
posted by dgran at 12:04 PM on June 19, 2013 [2 favorites]
1) Ecological truth: It has been said that Communism failed because it couldn't assimilate market truth. Capitalism will be seen as a failure because it couldn't create an incentive to avoid ecological catastrophe.
2) Non-growth economics: It is okay to have a society with the same level of wealth, productivity and standard of living today as they had 30 years ago. This is the norm over most of history and the expectation of growth was never a sustainable or rational basis for operating an economy and retirement planning for all society.
I can sort of see how my great-great grandchildren will talk about our present generation as a bunch of mystics who believed the environment was unchangeable and that growth was infinite. We might as well be phrenologists and using leaches for medicine. Probably the biggest indictment will be that so much excess wealth is squandered on the wealthy, but that is another matter and I'm a little less confident that we'll solve that one in the next hundred years.
posted by dgran at 12:04 PM on June 19, 2013 [2 favorites]
Lack of potable water and loss of topsoil. The effective death of the seas as a source of protein.
Your grandchildren will grow up eating bugs.
posted by SPrintF at 7:15 PM on June 19, 2013
Your grandchildren will grow up eating bugs.
posted by SPrintF at 7:15 PM on June 19, 2013
First of all, there will be surprises-- just read science fiction from 1910 and see how accurately that turned out.
Computer science will be dominant, particularly robotics. Sometime in the next 20-50 years, most people will become unemployable because robots will be cheaper and better than people at nearly every task. Soon after, even re-training to take on new jobs will also become impossible, because experts will be able to design robots faster than workers can re-train. Society will stratify even further based on education-- the 99% will live very well from Government payouts and part-time service work, and the 1% who can effectively manage technology companies will become rich beyond today's wildest dreams. Most people will use the equivalent of Google glasses, with software actively helping/guiding them continuously. Climate change will get worse but won't be catastrophic. Medical research will continue to slowly move ahead, but the drug-development pipeline will lengthen to 25 years due to increasing regulation, so progress will be significant but slower than expected. World governments will become increasingly interconnected, peaceful, and stable, but everyone who can (i.e. technology experts) will move to Mars as soon as it's technically possible due to stifling over-regulation on Earth.
Personally, I'd recommend going deep in your tech-focused world, since that puts you in the best position going forward. If you want more theories, I enjoyed Peter Thiel's talks and Vernor Vinge's science fiction.
posted by sninctown at 8:20 PM on June 19, 2013 [2 favorites]
Computer science will be dominant, particularly robotics. Sometime in the next 20-50 years, most people will become unemployable because robots will be cheaper and better than people at nearly every task. Soon after, even re-training to take on new jobs will also become impossible, because experts will be able to design robots faster than workers can re-train. Society will stratify even further based on education-- the 99% will live very well from Government payouts and part-time service work, and the 1% who can effectively manage technology companies will become rich beyond today's wildest dreams. Most people will use the equivalent of Google glasses, with software actively helping/guiding them continuously. Climate change will get worse but won't be catastrophic. Medical research will continue to slowly move ahead, but the drug-development pipeline will lengthen to 25 years due to increasing regulation, so progress will be significant but slower than expected. World governments will become increasingly interconnected, peaceful, and stable, but everyone who can (i.e. technology experts) will move to Mars as soon as it's technically possible due to stifling over-regulation on Earth.
Personally, I'd recommend going deep in your tech-focused world, since that puts you in the best position going forward. If you want more theories, I enjoyed Peter Thiel's talks and Vernor Vinge's science fiction.
posted by sninctown at 8:20 PM on June 19, 2013 [2 favorites]
Now that the Higgs Boson has been found, I think there's about a 50% chance that in the next hundred years there will be a major breakthrough in energy generation: direct conversion of mass into energy, without the bother of messing with fission or fusion.
You can convert matter into energy, not mass. Energy and mass are already the same thing (or rather, mass is a property of energy and matter). Messing around with the higgs field would actually require an enormous input of energy, not the other way around, and it wouldn't help you convert matter to energy.
posted by empath at 8:38 PM on June 19, 2013
You can convert matter into energy, not mass. Energy and mass are already the same thing (or rather, mass is a property of energy and matter). Messing around with the higgs field would actually require an enormous input of energy, not the other way around, and it wouldn't help you convert matter to energy.
posted by empath at 8:38 PM on June 19, 2013
Forget about how things will happen, because things like computers may evolve into something unrecognizable to us. But assume that the following will happen:
People will live much longer, maybe 90 or 100 years on average. Even if we postpone retirement age to something like 70 or 75, that leaves a lot of years to fill. Medical advances will eliminate or alleviate some of the common problems (Alzheimer's, various cancers, arthritis, diabetes, etc.) and leave old people more aware and mobile, but you'll have these great masses of unemployed people if you don't change the basic system. So old people will become a lot more active. If you haven't done it during your working life, in retirement you'll join groups for self-improvement and the improvement of the world. Education designed for old people will be very popular. Every retiree will be the future's equivalent of an Elk or Moose or Lion or whatever, or an unofficial godparent or grandparent or other sort of mentor or good fairy. Old people will become, perhaps as they used to be, the cement that keeps the bricks of society together. And of course a lot of old people will never retire, so you'll see 100-year-old women and men working, running companies, working in second or third careers.
Everything will be semi-aware of everything else. Everything of any value will have the intelligence of at least a bug and will be active. We will make things with built-in goals. The thinking machine on your desk (or in your head or in a cloud or wherever they migrate to) will be absolutely unimaginably brilliant compared to any computer we have today. It's a mystery what we will do with them, but maybe we'll just let them do a lot of the things we do now (accounting, programming, all sorts of manual work, etc.). But forget that, your coat will want to keep you warm and dry, but not too warm, and will listen to your requests, and will adjust itself automatically to match the environment, and will clean and repair itself with the help of invisible machines that live in its lining and crawl out on its surface to do their work when you aren't wearing it. When a man puts on a condom, the condom will remain just tight enough, it will send a warning signal if there's a rupture (don't ask), and it will release spermicide machines to hunt and destroy sperm cells, or superfast cockblocker sperm cells that will race to falsely impregnate the egg until any actual sperm in the vicinity have had time to die, or maybe decoy eggs to attract and swallow and digest sperm cells. Your shoes will fit your feet perfectly and allow you to go much longer because they will realign everything to suit your feet, your weight, your gait, and your pace, and they will massage your feet when you are not in motion.
So assume a world populated by everyone we have now -- little kids, teenagers, college learners, young professionals, middle (hah!) agers, etc. -- but the senior citizenry will include many more millions of older and older people actively participating in their lives and yours, plus gazillions of semi-animate things (like the coat and condom and shoes above) also actively participating in your life. A bit like some damned anime film. Ancient wise people and spirits and genii.
Exactly how it all gets done is not known yet, but assume that all materials are extremely light and strong and cheap, and that it is easy and inexpensive to put a miniature semiaware supercomputer in just about anything, and that it is just as easy and inexpensive to give those little supercomputers means of physically affecting their surroundings.
posted by pracowity at 4:47 AM on June 20, 2013 [2 favorites]
People will live much longer, maybe 90 or 100 years on average. Even if we postpone retirement age to something like 70 or 75, that leaves a lot of years to fill. Medical advances will eliminate or alleviate some of the common problems (Alzheimer's, various cancers, arthritis, diabetes, etc.) and leave old people more aware and mobile, but you'll have these great masses of unemployed people if you don't change the basic system. So old people will become a lot more active. If you haven't done it during your working life, in retirement you'll join groups for self-improvement and the improvement of the world. Education designed for old people will be very popular. Every retiree will be the future's equivalent of an Elk or Moose or Lion or whatever, or an unofficial godparent or grandparent or other sort of mentor or good fairy. Old people will become, perhaps as they used to be, the cement that keeps the bricks of society together. And of course a lot of old people will never retire, so you'll see 100-year-old women and men working, running companies, working in second or third careers.
Everything will be semi-aware of everything else. Everything of any value will have the intelligence of at least a bug and will be active. We will make things with built-in goals. The thinking machine on your desk (or in your head or in a cloud or wherever they migrate to) will be absolutely unimaginably brilliant compared to any computer we have today. It's a mystery what we will do with them, but maybe we'll just let them do a lot of the things we do now (accounting, programming, all sorts of manual work, etc.). But forget that, your coat will want to keep you warm and dry, but not too warm, and will listen to your requests, and will adjust itself automatically to match the environment, and will clean and repair itself with the help of invisible machines that live in its lining and crawl out on its surface to do their work when you aren't wearing it. When a man puts on a condom, the condom will remain just tight enough, it will send a warning signal if there's a rupture (don't ask), and it will release spermicide machines to hunt and destroy sperm cells, or superfast cockblocker sperm cells that will race to falsely impregnate the egg until any actual sperm in the vicinity have had time to die, or maybe decoy eggs to attract and swallow and digest sperm cells. Your shoes will fit your feet perfectly and allow you to go much longer because they will realign everything to suit your feet, your weight, your gait, and your pace, and they will massage your feet when you are not in motion.
So assume a world populated by everyone we have now -- little kids, teenagers, college learners, young professionals, middle (hah!) agers, etc. -- but the senior citizenry will include many more millions of older and older people actively participating in their lives and yours, plus gazillions of semi-animate things (like the coat and condom and shoes above) also actively participating in your life. A bit like some damned anime film. Ancient wise people and spirits and genii.
Exactly how it all gets done is not known yet, but assume that all materials are extremely light and strong and cheap, and that it is easy and inexpensive to put a miniature semiaware supercomputer in just about anything, and that it is just as easy and inexpensive to give those little supercomputers means of physically affecting their surroundings.
posted by pracowity at 4:47 AM on June 20, 2013 [2 favorites]
Response by poster: Thanks everyone, too many good answers to mark them all, and a lifetime of learning to scratch the surface.
posted by StephenF at 8:50 AM on June 20, 2013
posted by StephenF at 8:50 AM on June 20, 2013
This thread is closed to new comments.
prison administration
marketing
posted by thelonius at 2:46 AM on June 19, 2013 [5 favorites]