Where is this paper on economists being wrong I'm remembering?
May 22, 2013 10:04 PM   Subscribe

Some time ago, I came across a paper analyzing the predictions or theories of a number of economists relating to the recent economic troubles. The paper was very detailed (I didn't finish it) but the gist was that every single theory or prediction analyzed was wrong. Anyone know what I'm talking about and where I might find it?

Here's some details I hope I'm not misremembering:
- I thought I found it on the blue but a lengthy perusal of the economics tag hasn't yielded fruitful results, nor have my Google searches (economists being wrong is apparently a popular topic).
- I think I came across it within the past couple years. More than a few months ago at least.
- I want to say the number of economists whose ideas were analyzed was around 40, or at least under 100, but I might be wholly wrong on this one.
- There was a bit at the start of the paper that gives the conclusion (they're all wrong). The bulk of the paper was dedicated to individual analyses and it's quite lengthy.
posted by DyRE to Work & Money (6 answers total) 6 users marked this as a favorite
 
You're not talking about the austerity Excel error, are you?
posted by acidic at 11:00 PM on May 22, 2013


Possibly
“No One Saw This Coming”: Understanding Financial Crisis through Accounting Models, D J Bezemer, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management) Research Report number 09002.
?

Although that attacks the problem by looking for people who did successfully predict the financial crisis: essentially however everyone using equilibrium models failed to predict the crisis, because the crisis was brought about by excess credit pushing the economy a long way from any equilibrium state. The only economists to successfully predict the crisis were those using non-equilibrium models of one sort or another.
posted by pharm at 1:33 AM on May 23, 2013


Here's an article on the austerity index thing. Perhaps you're referring to the actual paper by Reinhart?
posted by backwards guitar at 3:31 AM on May 23, 2013


I think Nate Silver talks about this in one of the chapters in The Signal and the Noise (and may reference the article you're talking about) but I don't have it to hand.
posted by mskyle at 7:18 AM on May 23, 2013


Not a specific answer, but a general one:
What Economists To Listen To And Why, Brad DeLong. He goes back and looks at his own predictions and tries to figure out why he was right, or wrong. There may be more helpful links inside.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 8:06 AM on May 23, 2013


Response by poster: No, not the austerity Excel error.
These links are interesting but aren't the link I'm remembering.
posted by DyRE at 12:00 AM on May 24, 2013


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