How can I use reference class forecasting at work?
January 26, 2013 1:42 AM Subscribe
My office delivers projects - about thirty a year, about four months each, give or take a few weeks if they go well. They're always late, but when planning the next project, we use the same optimistic assumptions. I think reference class forecasting (RCF) could help. Any pointers for (or links to a crash course in) using RCF to turn a spreadsheet full of historical start / end dates and milestones into more accurate forecasts? Or is this something best left to a math geek?