How can I use reference class forecasting at work?
January 26, 2013 1:42 AM   Subscribe

My office delivers projects - about thirty a year, about four months each, give or take a few weeks if they go well. They're always late, but when planning the next project, we use the same optimistic assumptions. I think reference class forecasting (RCF) could help. Any pointers for (or links to a crash course in) using RCF to turn a spreadsheet full of historical start / end dates and milestones into more accurate forecasts? Or is this something best left to a math geek?
posted by obiwanwasabi to Work & Money (1 answer total)
I think you'd be best off getting FogBugz which will do a Monte Carlo simulation based on your history of estimating task completion time and how wrong you were.
posted by tel3path at 3:49 AM on January 26, 2013

« Older demissionization   |   ID this plant? Newer »
This thread is closed to new comments.