looking for a particular stock chart
September 20, 2012 9:46 AM Subscribe
Does anybody know of a free internet picture which is very close to Jeremy Siegel's (Stocks for the Long Run p. 47 of the 1994 Irwin edition) figure 3-2 "The real Dow-Jones Industrial Average"?
Ideally it would be through today and the S&P 500, not the Dow but anything close would be useful. (For those who have not heard, metafilter's favorite finance guy has us going into recession right now.) Looking at today's stock charts a lot of people have got to be wondering how much more she's gonna take Captain.
For those who don't know what Siegel's definition of "real Dow-Jones Industrial Average", it's the average in inflation adjusted constant dollars. So it is also going to fluctuate depending on how the inflation is calculated.
Ideally it would be through today and the S&P 500, not the Dow but anything close would be useful. (For those who have not heard, metafilter's favorite finance guy has us going into recession right now.) Looking at today's stock charts a lot of people have got to be wondering how much more she's gonna take Captain.
For those who don't know what Siegel's definition of "real Dow-Jones Industrial Average", it's the average in inflation adjusted constant dollars. So it is also going to fluctuate depending on how the inflation is calculated.
Response by poster: The problem I have with the top search results on google is they are more bearish than Siegel. I want to know a bull's reference for contrast. One of the charts I looked at had a "shadow inflation" suppressor which amounted to an additional 25% reduction. I should have made that more explicit but I thought my question was getting too long already.
posted by bukvich at 10:14 AM on September 20, 2012
posted by bukvich at 10:14 AM on September 20, 2012
It might help to post an image of the Siegel chart, or you are limiting your pool of helpers to pople who have access to that book :) (another S&P chart)
posted by misterbrandt at 10:24 AM on September 20, 2012 [1 favorite]
posted by misterbrandt at 10:24 AM on September 20, 2012 [1 favorite]
Not sure what period you are looking for, but one standard source is Robert Shiller's long-term data, beginning in 1871. It's all in an Excel file, available on the "long term stock, bond, interest rate and consumption data" link from this page. I think you're looking for Sheet 1, Column K (Real Stock Price), which is based on CPI and SP500. You'd have to make your own figure.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 10:29 AM on September 20, 2012
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 10:29 AM on September 20, 2012
Response by poster: > It might help to post an image of the Siegel chart
It looks pretty similar to b1tr0t's link but ends in 1993. He claims the slope of the trend line is 1.65% a year and the channel boundaries are at +/- .6667%.
posted by bukvich at 10:32 AM on September 20, 2012
It looks pretty similar to b1tr0t's link but ends in 1993. He claims the slope of the trend line is 1.65% a year and the channel boundaries are at +/- .6667%.
posted by bukvich at 10:32 AM on September 20, 2012
I came to say Shiller too. Actually, if you look at the "index plot" tab on his page it gives exactly the inflation-adjusted S&P 500
posted by shothotbot at 10:32 AM on September 20, 2012
posted by shothotbot at 10:32 AM on September 20, 2012
http://imgur.com is an easy and free way to quickly host a snapshot of the original image.
posted by mecran01 at 10:54 AM on September 20, 2012
posted by mecran01 at 10:54 AM on September 20, 2012
Is what you want something you could generate yourself using the FRED tool? [Krugman]
posted by dhartung at 1:50 PM on September 20, 2012
posted by dhartung at 1:50 PM on September 20, 2012
This thread is closed to new comments.
posted by misterbrandt at 10:02 AM on September 20, 2012