California gubernatorial race poll numbers
October 27, 2010 7:29 PM Subscribe
Was there a single event that happened on or shortly before September 7th, 2010, that caused Brown's poll numbers to start to rise and Whitman's numbers correspondingly fall in the current gubernatorial race for US state of California?
Also, the fact that Brown had hardly any money and so specifically waited until late in the campaign to launch the majority of his TV ads?
posted by BlahLaLa at 7:36 PM on October 27, 2010 [1 favorite]
posted by BlahLaLa at 7:36 PM on October 27, 2010 [1 favorite]
Well, it looks like my second idea might be right. Here's something from TPM which suggests it's Brown's late ads strategy that turned things around for him. (And that the nanny scandal didn't break until after her numbers went down.)
posted by BlahLaLa at 7:37 PM on October 27, 2010
posted by BlahLaLa at 7:37 PM on October 27, 2010
It's not the nanny scandal; the timing just doesn't work. I'd agree with BlahLaLa that Brown's ads were a big part of this, but I'd say Whitman's incredibly negative ads and her performance in the debates also played a big role. My personal analysis is that there was no "single event" that led to Brown's surge, but that more than anything else, voters just got tired of listening to Whitman. Brown is a known commodity among California voters, but it wasn't until recently that most people started paying attention to Whitman.
posted by zachlipton at 7:50 PM on October 27, 2010
posted by zachlipton at 7:50 PM on October 27, 2010
Brown started running TV ads on September 6. Or at least, he did the official launch of his TV campaign then.
posted by holgate at 8:17 PM on October 27, 2010
posted by holgate at 8:17 PM on October 27, 2010
Total speculation but combination of: (1) Brown has lots of long-established connections with organizational structures (Democrats, unions, politicos); (2) California is pretty moderate; (3) The longer Californians spent with Whitman, given (1) and (2), equals change in polls.
posted by ClaudiaCenter at 8:50 PM on October 27, 2010
posted by ClaudiaCenter at 8:50 PM on October 27, 2010
California is pretty moderate
Well, I mean, the cummulative average of Californians (very conservative and very liberal plus a handful of moderates) equals moderate.
posted by ClaudiaCenter at 8:53 PM on October 27, 2010
Well, I mean, the cummulative average of Californians (very conservative and very liberal plus a handful of moderates) equals moderate.
posted by ClaudiaCenter at 8:53 PM on October 27, 2010
Brown somehow managed to silence anyone who could connect him with Jim Jones/Peoples' Temple/Rose Bird/pension schemes?
posted by Ideefixe at 9:12 PM on October 27, 2010
posted by Ideefixe at 9:12 PM on October 27, 2010
Brown somehow managed to silence anyone who could connect him with Jim Jones/Peoples' Temple/Rose Bird/pension schemes?
Everyone except for you, apparently. I wouldn't answer the door.
posted by davejay at 10:00 PM on October 27, 2010 [6 favorites]
Everyone except for you, apparently. I wouldn't answer the door.
posted by davejay at 10:00 PM on October 27, 2010 [6 favorites]
Brown somehow managed to silence anyone who could connect him with Jim Jones/Peoples' Temple/Rose Bird/pension schemes?
I believe the voters had decided that didn't matter long ago.
Frankly, my verrrrrry connected Sacramento friend says people resented the spectacle of $150 mil of Whitman's own money entering the race. A staggering sum. I've had good 20 minute sitdowns with national reporters covering the race exclusively and the nanny scandal did hurt and made a close race never come back. You usually see two types of polling curves, up and down for either side and "bye-bye." This one was a bye-bye.
posted by Ironmouth at 10:05 PM on October 27, 2010 [2 favorites]
I believe the voters had decided that didn't matter long ago.
Frankly, my verrrrrry connected Sacramento friend says people resented the spectacle of $150 mil of Whitman's own money entering the race. A staggering sum. I've had good 20 minute sitdowns with national reporters covering the race exclusively and the nanny scandal did hurt and made a close race never come back. You usually see two types of polling curves, up and down for either side and "bye-bye." This one was a bye-bye.
posted by Ironmouth at 10:05 PM on October 27, 2010 [2 favorites]
Response by poster: I saw the part about Brown ramping up his ad campaign right around the time his numbers started climbing, but I was trying to isolate if that was was what caused the sudden divergence of his numbers, despite the assertion(fantasy?) of Dan Carlin's latest Common Sense podcast, that even though record amounts of money are being spent on ads this campaign season, they really don't have any effect on the outcome of an election anymore because we're all too media saavy/numb to their effect.
posted by crunchland at 3:28 AM on October 28, 2010
posted by crunchland at 3:28 AM on October 28, 2010
Sample size of one. I was an undecided voter. At first I thought they both were terrible choices so I didn't care. I still think they're both terrible choices, but the first time I got a mailer from Meg Whitman, I thought, well, OK, maybe she has a point. The second one, I almost was won over. The third I went, "Woah, a full magazine on glossy paper. What?" The fourth I was, "Seriously? Does she just want to buy herself an election?" The fifth.... And so on. Jerry Brown has little to nothing to do with it. I went from "open to Meg Whitman" to "Egads, she's the female Mr. Burns."
posted by Gucky at 8:27 AM on October 28, 2010 [3 favorites]
posted by Gucky at 8:27 AM on October 28, 2010 [3 favorites]
Similarly sample size of one - I was undecided, open to her but leaning Democratic, and then her ads just started getting progressively more ridiculous:
Meg Whitman has a plan to fix our schools by (bunch of pablum and substance-less catchphrases together with 'inspirational' pictures)!
Meg Whitman knows that all we have to do is run the government more like a business! (what, you're going to fire a bunch of senators if they don't do what you want?)
Horrible horrible Jerry Brown opposes the death penalty! (seems like a reasonably principled stand, I'm conflicted on it myself) ... Even in the case of cop killers! (Uh... yeah, that's what 'opposes the death penalty' means...?)
And then there was all the stuff she was saying that was, er, factually challenged, and really - for me it wasn't the number of ads, it was the content. It felt like there wasn't any there there but scare tactics and yelling and really wanting to be elected. As soon as Jerry Brown aired an ad or two it was like 'oh, yeah, absolutely - what he said".
posted by Lady Li at 9:23 AM on October 28, 2010
Meg Whitman has a plan to fix our schools by (bunch of pablum and substance-less catchphrases together with 'inspirational' pictures)!
Meg Whitman knows that all we have to do is run the government more like a business! (what, you're going to fire a bunch of senators if they don't do what you want?)
Horrible horrible Jerry Brown opposes the death penalty! (seems like a reasonably principled stand, I'm conflicted on it myself) ... Even in the case of cop killers! (Uh... yeah, that's what 'opposes the death penalty' means...?)
And then there was all the stuff she was saying that was, er, factually challenged, and really - for me it wasn't the number of ads, it was the content. It felt like there wasn't any there there but scare tactics and yelling and really wanting to be elected. As soon as Jerry Brown aired an ad or two it was like 'oh, yeah, absolutely - what he said".
posted by Lady Li at 9:23 AM on October 28, 2010
I received one of those glossy magazines, and leafed through it thinking it was something from a local newspaper or somesuch. As I leafed through, it became clear -- quickly, and moreso with every page turn -- that whoever wrote it had a huge bias again Brown/towards Whitman, to WTF proportions. I was not even slightly surprised by the time I got to the last page to see it was from her campaign, but it was interesting going in thinking it was neutral instead of with my usual defenses up.
posted by davejay at 2:37 PM on October 28, 2010
posted by davejay at 2:37 PM on October 28, 2010
This thread is closed to new comments.
posted by BlahLaLa at 7:34 PM on October 27, 2010