Looking for an article about getting people to improve their own estimates and predictions
August 31, 2009 10:57 AM Subscribe
Looking for an article about getting people to improve their own estimates and predictions
I read an article a few months ago about a study in which people were asked to make estimates or predictions about things (e.g. how long a project would take, how much it would cost).
These estimates would often be quite inaccurate, but the researchers found that if they asked the subjects to make another prediction - assuming that the worst might happen, or that their first prediction was inaccurate - then they'd arrive at something much more realistic (I can't remember if that 'more realistic' estimate was an average of the two predictions).
If it helps, I normally read The Atlantic, New York Times, Economist, and New Yorker, so it could've been in one of those... I'm not having any luck with my own Googling though.
(it does sound a bit like the PERT technique, but this was different...)
I read an article a few months ago about a study in which people were asked to make estimates or predictions about things (e.g. how long a project would take, how much it would cost).
These estimates would often be quite inaccurate, but the researchers found that if they asked the subjects to make another prediction - assuming that the worst might happen, or that their first prediction was inaccurate - then they'd arrive at something much more realistic (I can't remember if that 'more realistic' estimate was an average of the two predictions).
If it helps, I normally read The Atlantic, New York Times, Economist, and New Yorker, so it could've been in one of those... I'm not having any luck with my own Googling though.
(it does sound a bit like the PERT technique, but this was different...)
Best answer: You know more than you think in Scientific American?
posted by James Scott-Brown at 11:05 AM on August 31, 2009 [1 favorite]
posted by James Scott-Brown at 11:05 AM on August 31, 2009 [1 favorite]
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posted by dfriedman at 11:02 AM on August 31, 2009