White Swans?
February 25, 2009 4:27 PM Subscribe
What is the term/ help me invent a word for: situations where you take a small hit to avoid the risk of a possible substantially larger hit in future.
So I've been reading 'The Black Swan' and the idea really resonated with me that in life it's often useful to take a few little hits along the way to avoid the possibility of a much larger one.
This is essentially the opposite of picking up nickels in front of a steamroller, the profitable activity that is occasionally punished with massive consequences. I've taken this to heart, and have been trying to apply it to my daily life. Example: instead of covering up your mistakes (for a risky, small gain) and possibly being found out of being deliberately deceitful (big risk), admit you've made a mistake (take the small hit) and move on. I think it applies in a lot of domains.
Trouble is, I can't think what to call these small hits that it's generally advisable to take. Any suggestions?
So I've been reading 'The Black Swan' and the idea really resonated with me that in life it's often useful to take a few little hits along the way to avoid the possibility of a much larger one.
This is essentially the opposite of picking up nickels in front of a steamroller, the profitable activity that is occasionally punished with massive consequences. I've taken this to heart, and have been trying to apply it to my daily life. Example: instead of covering up your mistakes (for a risky, small gain) and possibly being found out of being deliberately deceitful (big risk), admit you've made a mistake (take the small hit) and move on. I think it applies in a lot of domains.
Trouble is, I can't think what to call these small hits that it's generally advisable to take. Any suggestions?
"Cut your losses" came to my mind.
posted by jclovebrew at 4:34 PM on February 25, 2009 [1 favorite]
posted by jclovebrew at 4:34 PM on February 25, 2009 [1 favorite]
The financial version of this is called insurance. You pay a premium (small hit) to avoid massive financial loss in case of disaster (large hit).
So how about calling your small hits insurance payments?
posted by betterton at 4:34 PM on February 25, 2009
So how about calling your small hits insurance payments?
posted by betterton at 4:34 PM on February 25, 2009
Hedges?
posted by bluejayway at 4:42 PM on February 25, 2009
posted by bluejayway at 4:42 PM on February 25, 2009
I think hedge is correct in a financial sense.
posted by procrastination at 4:44 PM on February 25, 2009
posted by procrastination at 4:44 PM on February 25, 2009
Wisdom?
(A gambit is an example of this concept, not the name of it.)
posted by gjc at 4:57 PM on February 25, 2009
(A gambit is an example of this concept, not the name of it.)
posted by gjc at 4:57 PM on February 25, 2009
Hedgeing (finance) - more generally, hedge your bets.
posted by hannahlambda at 5:02 PM on February 25, 2009
posted by hannahlambda at 5:02 PM on February 25, 2009
And hedge isn't quite right, either, if I understand correctly -- that's when you arrange it so that if a bad thing happens, another good thing also happens to cancel out the damage somewhat.
posted by wyzewoman at 5:02 PM on February 25, 2009
posted by wyzewoman at 5:02 PM on February 25, 2009
Spock's Tenet?
posted by Bernt Pancreas at 5:05 PM on February 25, 2009
posted by Bernt Pancreas at 5:05 PM on February 25, 2009
I've heard people who know some math call this knowing Probability, and I see that, because applying the knowledge gained from a junior/senior undergrad level course in that subject is one way you can gain this wisdom.
posted by TheOnlyCoolTim at 5:08 PM on February 25, 2009
posted by TheOnlyCoolTim at 5:08 PM on February 25, 2009
Puts
posted by IndigoJones at 5:11 PM on February 25, 2009
posted by IndigoJones at 5:11 PM on February 25, 2009
A stitch in time.
posted by peacheater at 5:12 PM on February 25, 2009 [2 favorites]
posted by peacheater at 5:12 PM on February 25, 2009 [2 favorites]
Hedge is the only thing that comes to mind. Mitigation is also close.
Gambit is wrong, because a gambit is an intentional, usually deceitful sacrifice that will later (hopefully) pay off -- it's not to reduce the probability of bad things happening.
posted by Simon Barclay at 5:14 PM on February 25, 2009
Gambit is wrong, because a gambit is an intentional, usually deceitful sacrifice that will later (hopefully) pay off -- it's not to reduce the probability of bad things happening.
posted by Simon Barclay at 5:14 PM on February 25, 2009
Preemptive loss?
posted by Johnny Assay at 5:35 PM on February 25, 2009
posted by Johnny Assay at 5:35 PM on February 25, 2009
Though it doesn't exactly match up to your examples, you might be thinking of a loss leader. In this case, you suffer a small loss in the present in order to reap rewards in the future.
posted by googly at 5:52 PM on February 25, 2009
posted by googly at 5:52 PM on February 25, 2009
I call this incurred pain vs. deferred pain.
This is what you see, for example, with parents letting their brats run wild because they don't want to experience the minuscule amount of pain involved in applying discipline now and they delude themselves into thinking the bill will never come due.
Or, even simpler, overeating.
As you've discovered, the cost of deferred pain is often far beyond the total of the small amounts of incurred pain along the way. Deferred pain usually incurs compound interest along the way.
posted by trinity8-director at 5:59 PM on February 25, 2009
This is what you see, for example, with parents letting their brats run wild because they don't want to experience the minuscule amount of pain involved in applying discipline now and they delude themselves into thinking the bill will never come due.
Or, even simpler, overeating.
As you've discovered, the cost of deferred pain is often far beyond the total of the small amounts of incurred pain along the way. Deferred pain usually incurs compound interest along the way.
posted by trinity8-director at 5:59 PM on February 25, 2009
There's a term in firefighting that I can't recall - it's where you burn known good material to enclose the fir (backfire? Fireline?) It the intentional destruction of good material to stop the damage.
posted by filmgeek at 6:15 PM on February 25, 2009
posted by filmgeek at 6:15 PM on February 25, 2009
Taking one for the team. :)
posted by Hildegarde at 6:32 PM on February 25, 2009
posted by Hildegarde at 6:32 PM on February 25, 2009
I think it was Kissinger that said "that which must happen inevitably should therefore happen immediately" or something close to that. It's not pithy, but it gets the point across. And I tell clients that on a weekly basis.
posted by norm at 7:00 PM on February 25, 2009 [1 favorite]
posted by norm at 7:00 PM on February 25, 2009 [1 favorite]
Virgin sacrifice.
posted by porpoise at 7:40 PM on February 25, 2009 [1 favorite]
posted by porpoise at 7:40 PM on February 25, 2009 [1 favorite]
On additional reflection, I haven't been able to come up with the right thing. "Taking your lumps" comes close, and "delayed gratification" is in the right ballpark, but neither is quite there.
posted by adamrice at 8:47 PM on February 25, 2009
posted by adamrice at 8:47 PM on February 25, 2009
In law, I've heard this referred to as "drawing the sting." You admit your weakness up front, which robs the opponent of the advantage of pointing it out themselves to the jury or judge.
posted by *s at 9:25 PM on February 25, 2009
posted by *s at 9:25 PM on February 25, 2009
filmgeek: in Australia, we call it "back-burning".
posted by surenoproblem at 4:57 AM on February 26, 2009
posted by surenoproblem at 4:57 AM on February 26, 2009
Response by poster: Thanks for these. I think 'taking you licks' and 'taking your lumps' expresses the idea best, but they're not quite pithy enough.
posted by greytape at 6:13 AM on February 26, 2009
posted by greytape at 6:13 AM on February 26, 2009
Biting the bullet?
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:35 AM on February 26, 2009
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:35 AM on February 26, 2009
The closest I can come up with is "picking and choosing your battles" or "losing the battle but winning the war."
posted by NoraCharles at 12:55 PM on February 26, 2009
posted by NoraCharles at 12:55 PM on February 26, 2009
Response by poster: Having given it a few more months thought, I now like: playing the percentages.
posted by greytape at 12:38 PM on August 5, 2009
posted by greytape at 12:38 PM on August 5, 2009
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posted by turgid dahlia at 4:33 PM on February 25, 2009