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42 posts tagged with statistics *and* probability.

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## Too Many Strata To Sample

I have multiple independent variables that I want to stratify my sampling across, but the result would be way more strata than I can sample. Is there a way to stratify across different character states for each independent variable without creating strata for the interactions of each? Example inside. [more inside]

## Statistical framing of the engineering and extremism article

Reading this article on the blue got me thinking about conditional probabilities, prediction and causality. I came up with an analytical framing of what I think the article is saying and would be grateful if stats/social science Mefites could tell me if it seems accurate or else set me right. [more inside]

## Calculating the probability of a scenario that might happen by chance

I have to validate some input for a database, and I want to present the user with a mathematically accurate estimate of the percentage of data that they entered which may be invalid. The problem is that valid data looks like invalid data 10% of the time. [more inside]

## Probability distributions and their practical applications

I am looking for a resource that lists probability distributions and their common real-world applications. For example, I'd expect to see: Lognormal - daily returns in the stock market. Poisson - failure rates for mechanical equipment, ... [more inside]

## Best or most appropriate Statistic method to Use.

I have a statistics and/or probability question and the last time I took a statistics class Vanilla Ice and Andrew "Dice Clay" were multi-millionaires.
I am not looking for a problem to be solved, I am asking what statistical technique should I use to determine if a time series of data is due to randomness or not. [more inside]

## Statistics are hard.

How do you calculate the probability of something when it's not as simple as "do it a bunch of times"? Specifics inside. [more inside]

## Fruit salad for statisticians

What formula do I need to determine the probability that a set of size N contains two elements, each appearing with a specific frequency? [more inside]

## Math Problem

Please help with this probability related math problem. [more inside]

## Has a major lottery ever produced a result that doesn't look random?

Every outcome in a fair lottery is equally probable, yet some results display obvious patterns and feel less likely to the statistically uninformed. Nobody would blink if a six-number lotto draw came up with (3,12,27,31,40,44), but a result of (1,2,3,4,5,6) would probably make the news. Has this ever happened in a major lottery? If yes, what was the public responce?

## 2 problems of combinations and permutations.

How many unique ways are there to put X rocks into Y boxes?
(Given two different sets of attributes for both the rocks and the boxes.) [more inside]

## Chance of event with small sample size, based on larger related sample?

Can/how can one improve the estimate for a chance of an event with a small historical sample size by utilizing the chance of a related event with a large historical sample size? Example and half-assed guess inside. [more inside]

## I'm having trouble understanding likelihood ratios and diagnostic tests.

I'm struggling to understand likelihood ratios (LR) in the context of diagnostic tests, and why a positive LR is influenced by the sensitivity of the test. [more inside]

## Is there a name for this logical fallacy? It has to do with statistics.

The fallacy is assuming that statistic information about a thing is more relevant in dealing with a particular instance of that thing than available first-hand data. [more inside]

## Human Random Generator

Can you think of a method that allows an individual to pseudo randomly create a sequence of numbers (at the very least the randomness is opaque to the minds of other people) assuming said individual may only use his mind and body (no physical tools are allowed)? [more inside]

## What does a professional statistician do?

(Good) jobs involving probability and statistics other than math teacher or actuary? [more inside]

## How to solve a complex statistics problem with a script?

In this game, you roll a number of six-sided dice to get a

**total**. The total is either the highest single die result, or the sum of any multiples rolled, whichever is higher. For example: If I roll three dice and get a 3, 4, and 6, my total is 6. But if I roll a 4, 4, and 6, my total is 8, the sum of the two 4s. What I want to find out is the mean, median, mode, and standard deviation of the possible totals given N dice. How might I create a simple script to compute this? [more inside]## Practice Probability Word Problems

What great books or resources are there for practicing probability word problems such as for standardized tests like the GRE? [more inside]

## What are the odds that two randomly selected people share the same bank PIN?

Statisticsfilter: Given available information about the distribution of self-selected 4-digit passwords (specifically banking PINs), is it possible to calculate the probability of two randomly selected individuals having the same PIN? If so, what're the odds? [more inside]

## How do I calculate the probability of a specific sum of repeated die rolls?

I'm looking to learn how to calculate probabilities for a multi-round dice game. I've researched this question some, and it looks like I might need to know how to use the multinomial distribution, but I can't find any good introductions. Please point me to the most layman-accessible educational material on this subject, and help me to help myself. [more inside]

## Recommendations for great books about probability and risk.

Recommendations for great books about probability and risk. [more inside]

## Most 'realistic' rpg rules?

What are the most mathematically 'advanced' RPG systems? Pen & paper and otherwise? [more inside]

## Probability Question

Probability Question [more inside]

## Statistics filter: How do I calculate the keyspace size of a password?

How do I figure out what the size of this password's keyspace is? [more inside]

## Need help with a probability question

Can someone help with a probability question? [more inside]

## Picking the correct probability distribution

Which probability distribution should I use to model examination results? [more inside]

## Adding contacts to LinkedIn and changing jobs

Has there ever been any research done on whether there is any correlation between spurts of adding contacts to LinkedIn or LinkedIn activity and someone changing job? [more inside]

## Is it 1 in 46,656?

Probability filter: after eating the TD turkey we play the Turkey game which consists of tossing six dice. The six faces of each die are carved with the letters that spells turkey. Each combination of letters earn a different score (for example T U is 5 points, 3 Ts wipe all the points earned, etc.) with the first TURKEY being the winner. How many tosses would you need to spell TURKEY? [more inside]

## How can someone guess the betting lines for a sporting event?

How does one guess sports betting odds, or determine at what point to place a bet on a sporting event? [more inside]

## Conditional Probability

Stats-filter: Given a binary matrix, if I know the total number of ones in a given row and a given column, can I calculate the probability that a given position contains a one? [more inside]

## How many grandmothers will die in two months?

Actuarial / statistics geeks: a puzzle for you. [more inside]

## Not all random numbers are created equal

How do I get a controlled distribution of random numbers to fairly determine a start position. [more inside]

## A Strange Bucket

I have a bucket containing

*N*marbles:*M*white marbles and*N-M*black marbles. I need to grab a handful of marbles (*n*) and figure out the probability of having picked up*m*white marbles. [more inside]## Probability question (in need of code)

It's late, I'm tired, and I have a probability and coding question that's fairly simple. [more inside]

## What is a good sample size for determining whether dice are truly random?

How many times would I have to roll a standard 6-sided die to get a statistically representative view of whether it was truly random or not? [more inside]

## Probability and Truth

*Suppose you take a test for a rare type of cancer that affects 0.01 percent of the population. The test is 98 percent reliable. You get a positive reading. What are the chances you have the cancer?*I read this probability puzzle today and the writer said the statistical chances of you having the cancer in this scenario are less than half a percent. I don't get it. Isn't the rarity factor irrelevant compared with the test reliability? Please explain.

## what's the probability distribution, kenneth?

for the statisticians: what probability distribution do I want to fit to my data, and how? [more inside]

## complex dice probability make head esplode

I need a tool to help me analyze the probability of certain events occurring regarding a pool of X dice for a game I am creating. See my examples below.
[more inside]

## How many rolls 'till n values in a row.

Given a fair die with

*s*sides, what is the expected number of rolls*r*before I get*o*outcomes with the same value*v*in a row? [Note this is emphatically**NOT**a homework problem; I just really want to know, feel like I should be able to figure it out, can't, and it is driving me nuts.] [more inside]## Philly or SF, which is safer?

Which city is safer: San Francisco or Philadelphia? [more inside]

## Calculating probability with children

Looking for ideas for teaching probability to kids. [more inside]

## Deriving formulas for Weibull distributions

Probability: A coworker is having an issue with deriving a few formulas for a Weibull distribution. Any pointers? [more inside]

## Need help with probability and statistics

In my exploration of poker odds and strategies, I've developed more programs for examining situations. I need help evaluating some of the probability and statistics involved. [more inside]

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