The fallacy is assuming that statistic information about a thing is more relevant in dealing with a particular instance of that thing than available first-hand data.
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posted by CustooFintel
on Mar 12, 2013 -
17 answers
I'm a cataloging librarian who works a couple hours a week on the reference desk. This morning I had a patron come in to ask me for sources that back up the claim that the probability that life on earth formed by random chance is so small that some kind of divine intervention is more likely.
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posted by rabbitrabbit
on Feb 14, 2013 -
33 answers
Can you think of a method that allows an individual to pseudo randomly create a sequence of numbers (at the very least the randomness is opaque to the minds of other people) assuming said individual may only use his mind and body (no physical tools are allowed)?
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posted by Foci for Analysis
on Dec 21, 2012 -
7 answers
In this game, you roll a number of six-sided dice to get a
total. The total is either the highest single die result, or the sum of any multiples rolled, whichever is higher.
For example: If I roll three dice and get a 3, 4, and 6, my total is 6. But if I roll a 4, 4, and 6, my total is 8, the sum of the two 4s.
What I want to find out is the mean, median, mode, and standard deviation of the possible totals given N dice. How might I create a simple script to compute this?
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posted by j0hnpaul
on Nov 30, 2012 -
24 answers
What great books or resources are there for practicing probability word problems such as for standardized tests like the GRE?
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posted by Mr. Papagiorgio
on Nov 8, 2012 -
3 answers
Statisticsfilter: Given available information about the distribution of self-selected 4-digit passwords (specifically banking PINs), is it possible to calculate the probability of two randomly selected individuals having the same PIN? If so, what're the odds?
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posted by myrrh
on Oct 27, 2012 -
15 answers
I'm looking to learn how to calculate probabilities for a multi-round dice game. I've researched this question some, and it looks like I might need to know how to use the multinomial distribution, but I can't find any good introductions. Please point me to the most layman-accessible educational material on this subject, and help me to help myself.
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posted by Richard Daly
on Sep 28, 2012 -
6 answers
How would one (legally) take advantage of the change in odds of a given NFL team to win the Super Bowl?
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posted by glenngulia
on Sep 24, 2012 -
6 answers
Math/probability not sports: I am not a gambler, but I am trying out a method of betting on sports with some initial success. At what point can I use the numbers to confidently assume that this is down to the system rather than luck?
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posted by cincinnatus c
on Sep 19, 2012 -
4 answers
I'm working through an explanation/derivation of the secretary problem that I've never seen before. I know the eventual answer, and I understand most of the steps, but explain this to me like I'm an idiot:
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posted by supercres
on Sep 16, 2012 -
8 answers
Looking for an interesting blog post somewhere from a few months back about maximising your exposure to randomness or your probability of a good outcome. Think it was a geek post somewhere.
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posted by zaebiz
on Sep 4, 2012 -
2 answers
After tens of thousands of games of pool, every time I rack the balls I seem to switch about half of them around. I know I'm wasting time. So, I want to know exactly how many balls I should
normally expect to swap (the median), and what is the most I should
ever have to swap. For those of you who aren't pool nerds like me, I've explained the 8-ball racking process inside.
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posted by omnigut
on Apr 4, 2012 -
19 answers
What are the most mathematically 'advanced' RPG systems? Pen & paper and otherwise?
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posted by empath
on Mar 14, 2012 -
24 answers
Is there an equation for figuring out the average wait time for a book on hold at the library. Or how to figure out the average wait time I have left for a book I put on hold because I'm dying to read the rest of it.
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posted by gov_moonbeam
on Oct 13, 2011 -
10 answers
What is the maximum number of outs possible on the river in heads up Texas hold em? Assuming that out means a card which will take the player who is behind either level or ahead.
posted by therubettes
on Oct 11, 2011 -
20 answers
I'm struggling to understand the empirical content of probability theory. I understand the
mathematical theory, and I understand how we get from empirical observations to a mathematical model. I do not understand how we get from the mathematical model back to the real world, e.g., what is the "empirical content" of a statement like "event
x will occur with probability
p"?
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posted by ochlophonic
on Sep 8, 2011 -
23 answers
I'm trying to rank some non-proper poker hands within the conventional poker hand-ranking framework. I would like to rank them conventionally, i.e. on their probability of occurring in a straight, five-card deal.
The non-proper hands are:
(1) "Four-card straight" (four cards in a row);
(2) "Four-card flush" (four cards of the same suit);
(3) "Four-card straight flush" (four cards in a row of the same suit);
(4) "Same-color flush" (all 5 red cards or all 5 black cards);
(5) "Straight same-color flush" (a straight composed of all black cards or all red cards);
(6) "Four-card straight same-color flush" (a four-card straight composed of all black cards or all red cards).
My probability skills are "OK" (the odds for the four-card flush and same-color flush are straightforward), but some of them (particularly the straights) seem too tricky for me.
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posted by mrgrimm
on May 13, 2011 -
9 answers
We have lost a cat. Ignoring obstacles like trees, roads and houses, I am assuming he has gone on a random walk. Me and my fiancée have been out every night since he left, also walking randomly, hoping to find him. But I know a random walk in two dimensions always returns to the origin eventually, so are we actually any better off searching for him than just staying at home?
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posted by hoverboards don't work on water
on Feb 5, 2011 -
20 answers
Please refresh my memory with regard to a straightforward question of fair dice and probability.
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posted by Justinian
on Jan 20, 2011 -
14 answers
Which probability distribution should I use to model examination results?
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posted by alby
on Jan 13, 2011 -
13 answers
Has there ever been any research done on whether there is any correlation between spurts of adding contacts to LinkedIn or LinkedIn activity and someone changing job?
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posted by MuffinMan
on Jan 12, 2011 -
2 answers
Is there a word for a "collection of possible future events that are all somehow related?" I want something that captures the idea of a "collection of scenarios." Or, pick an forecasted event, fear, or desire: What is "the spectrum of possible outcomes" relevant to this thing that has my attention, plausible or otherwise, expected or unexpected, the good, the bad, and the ugly? Probability cloud? Scenario collection?
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posted by zeek321
on Dec 27, 2010 -
20 answers
Probability filter: after eating the TD turkey we play the Turkey game which consists of tossing six dice. The six faces of each die are carved with the letters that spells turkey. Each combination of letters earn a different score (for example T U is 5 points, 3 Ts wipe all the points earned, etc.) with the first TURKEY being the winner. How many tosses would you need to spell TURKEY?
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posted by francesca too
on Nov 29, 2010 -
15 answers
Help me teach myself enough about probability to properly balance the board game I want to design.
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posted by Caduceus
on Aug 9, 2010 -
3 answers
I'm scriptwriting an online interactive interview for a curriculum resource. There are ten questions, and students will be able to choose six of these to 'ask', and then see a video clip of each reply. Ideally, I want students to hear four strong answers and two weak ones. Based on this criterion, should I be using probabilty to work out how many of the ten answers should be weak or strong? If so, how? I think I need 6 or 7 strong answers just by applying the ratio.
posted by dowcrag
on Jun 30, 2010 -
3 answers
How does one guess sports betting odds, or determine at what point to place a bet on a sporting event?
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posted by reenum
on Apr 6, 2010 -
9 answers
What are some for media depictions of seeing briefly into the future, especially in terms of probability/what could have be?
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posted by Nelsormensch
on Feb 4, 2010 -
11 answers
Hi everyone. Say I have a list of 50 items. I pick 10 of them. I put them back.
What is the probability that, the SECOND time I pick 10 items, I pick an item I already picked the first time?
How about the THIRD time, from the first or second?
How about the probability of picking 3 of the same item, or 5? Thanks!
posted by EduTek
on Jan 22, 2010 -
17 answers
Stats-filter: Given a binary matrix, if I know the total number of ones in a given row and a given column, can I calculate the probability that a given position contains a one?
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posted by chrisamiller
on Dec 16, 2009 -
25 answers
Here's an obnoxious school question that's been nagging me for days:
Suppose that the height (at the shoulder) of adult African bull bush elephants is normally distributed with µ = 3.3 meters and ∂ = .2 meter. The elephant on display at the Smithsonian Institute has a height 4 meters and is the largest elephant on record. What is the probability that an adult African bull bush elephant has height 4 meters or more? [more inside]
posted by incomple
on Dec 8, 2009 -
8 answers
I have an event that has a 75% chance of happening. If I run the trial seven times, what is the probability of the event happening at least once? And what's the math behind it?
posted by jackypaper
on Nov 6, 2009 -
7 answers
What's a fair way to chose winners for this ad-hoc giveaway? details inside...
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posted by smelvis
on Oct 26, 2009 -
4 answers
Some guy recently got 3 holes in one on the same course (different holes) within 5 days. My cousin contends that the odds against this are 5 billion to one, based on something he read. He's willing to have me prove him wrong, but this is well beyond my ability to calculate. I'm good with any time period -- the likelihood of someone doing this in a year, or 10 years, or whatever.
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posted by jeather
on Sep 21, 2009 -
24 answers
How do you multiply probability across multiple chances? Let's say that every time you roll a die, you have a one-in-six chance of having five come up. What math would you perform to come up with the probability of five coming up at some point with the dice being rolled two times? Three? Five? Ten? (I'm using dice as a shorthand here: the actual probability figure I'm working with is 24%.)
posted by WCityMike
on Sep 16, 2009 -
15 answers
I have a bucket containing
N marbles:
M white marbles and
N-M black marbles. I need to grab a handful of marbles (
n) and figure out the probability of having picked up
m white marbles.
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posted by Blazecock Pileon
on Nov 6, 2008 -
16 answers
What are the chances, in blackjack, that I will start with 15, and the dealer will be showing a 10 (or face card worth 10)?
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posted by gummo
on Oct 28, 2008 -
8 answers
