Ask MetaFilter questions tagged with prediction

Looking for an article about getting people to improve their own estimates and predictions

adrianhon — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 10:57:48 -0800

Looking for an article about getting people to improve their own estimates and predictions I read an article a few months ago about a study in which people were asked to make estimates or predictions about things (e.g. how long a project would take, how much it would cost).

These estimates would often be quite inaccurate, but the researchers found that if they asked the subjects to make another prediction - assuming that the worst might happen, or that their first prediction was inaccurate - then they'd arrive at something much more realistic (I can't remember if that 'more realistic' estimate was an average of the two predictions).

If it helps, I normally read The Atlantic, New York Times, Economist, and New Yorker, so it could've been in one of those... I'm not having any luck with my own Googling though.

(it does sound a bit like the PERT technique, but this was different...)

Gary Spivey, where's your documentation?

Greg Nog — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 12:51:43 -0800

Spurred by this fpp, I'm curious about Gary Spivey. His website lists various predictions he's made, and says they're verifiable, but doesn't link to sources for any except the Justin Timberlake one. I'd like to see/hear verifications for any of those, but particularly the 9/11 prediction one. Please note that this question is a straight-up request for verification of any of these predictions; it is not the question "Do you think Gary Spivey is psychic?"

Most bang for the buck

Iteki — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 14:15:22 -0800

Financefilter: Better to buy sterling now in bulk, or monthly for a year? Asking for a friend. We have had a look at this, this, and this previous.

Said friend has euro savings. She needs to pay for a course in sterling on a monthly basis starting this month. Having exchanged enough for the current installment already she has lost about 10p per pound purely to the rate disparity. It adds up.

That said, is she better off exchanging the entire fees now at 89p per euro or will it work out as closer to parity if exchanged on a monthly basis throughout the year? Law of averages or something?

If it's relevant, she is intending to relocate to the uk later in the year.

Are there other good options she is missing here? For example would paying by credit card negate bank commissions or anything?

I want my 40 acres to bring in some cash to the older me

reenum — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 13:13:29 -0800

Are there techniques or methods to determine how a city will grow and in what direction it will grow? I want to buy some unimproved land with an eye to selling it in the future. I'd like my investment to be something that appreciates, rather than declining or simply remaining stable.

I'm looking for tools, books, websites, or other resources that help one gain the knowledge to try and figure out what patterns a city's growth is taking, and where growth will occur over the next 10-20 years.

Thanks!

How do Bid and Ask work on Intrade?

wastelands — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 07:55:56 -0800

How exactly does the Bid/Ask work on Intrade.com? So last night I bought a bunch of shares of "Dow down at least 25 points by close on Monday" with my remaining play money. I was excited this morning when I saw the markets were way down. I was about to quadruple my money. But then on Intrade, no one had sold me the shares I requested. I bought them last night when there was no Ask price. Other people had bid 25 points ($2.5/share?), so I did the same.

How does that work? Do all contracts start off at 50 points when they go live? Had that one not started until opening bell?

If anyone could clarify the whole Bid/Ask thing, I would appreciate it. Intrade's help pages only talk about the bare minimum. I googled on the terms and get the general idea, but obviously I don't get it enough. I'm missing out on a huge (virtual) payday today. :-(

Go big or go home?

clearly — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 17:34:17 -0800

The Dow Jones average on November 5th: Is it going up or down, help me decide. The problem: You can wager between 1 and 100 points on whether the Dow Jones average is going to go up or down on November 5th, the day after the general election. The amount by which the market goes up or down is the multiplier by which the amount wagered is multiplied.

Lets say that I predict the Dow goes up, and wager 10 points. If the Dow gains 250 points that day, I wind up with a positive score of 2,500 points for the problem. If the Dow drops by 250 points and I chose that it would go up, I lose 2,500 points.

The Dow Jones following recent contested Presidential elections:

November 3rd, the day following Bush/Kerry 2004: Dow Jones gains/loses 0 points.
November 8th, the day following Bush/Gore 2000: Dow Jones loses 47 points.
November 6th, the day following Dole/Clinton 1996: Dow Jones gains 97 points.
November 4th, the day following Bush/Clinton 1992: Dow Jones loses 29 points.

There are many variables to this question, especially framed within the context of the day after the election. How would you approach this problem to achieve the best possible outcome against numerous other participants?

Thank you for your insights.

I am not putting money on this event, this is an exercise posed to an economics of gaming class.

sunset position prediction

garethspor — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 22:40:22 -0800

Is there a site that will tell me the exact heading to which the sun will set for a given day and location? Obviously the sun sets in the west, but as the seasons change it sets in different locations, I need to figure out exactly where... Plenty of websites will tell me at what time the sun rises and sets, but what I need is exact heading.

Thanks in advance hive-mind!!

What does "longitudinal prediction" mean?

harwons — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 20:25:32 -0800

What does "longitudinal prediction" mean? And more generally, where can I find an online glossary of such terms related to research statistics? Wikipedia defines many terms, but not this one.

And again, you can find a lot about philosophy on Wikipedia, but the authoritative resource is the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.

Countdown to his death

999 — Fri, 28 Dec 2007 11:48:55 -0800

I remember a story about a scientist or mathematician who noticed he slept increasingly more each night. The increase followed some kind of mathematical progression. When the amount reached 24 hours, he died. Who was he?

Please don't say Philip K. Dick

DarkForest — Fri, 03 Aug 2007 08:56:35 -0800

Are there any currently active futurists/pundits with a good track record of predicting societal changes 10+ years in the future? Who should I be reading now to understand where things are going? Or is any speculation about the world 10-20 years from now strictly in the realm of science fiction?

Anyone who predicted failures of Iraq war and why?

shivohum — Wed, 21 Mar 2007 08:35:07 -0800

Was there anyone who publicly predicted, before the start of the Iraq war, the absence of WMDs and/or the extended occupation we would face, and justified those predictions in thoughtful detail?

How do you predict airline ticket prices?

handee — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 04:36:15 -0800

How can you tell when to buy an airline ticket? I've got to buy three return airline tickets. They're currently coming in at around 800, 600 and 700 ukp on expedia, but have been about 50ukp less (each) in the past. Should I snap them up now, or might they go back down again? Is there a way to tell?

Iraq troop prediction numbers

klangklangston — Tue, 16 Jan 2007 14:49:51 -0800

Anyone have predictions (with citations) offered on how many troops would be necessary in Iraq? I've heard that generals said up to 300,000 in the run-up, but I can't seem to find sources for these. Obviously, the more predictions and the more diverse the predictions, the better. Again, citations and sourcing is KEY. (This is not homework, but rather trying to rapidly shore-up some fact-checking that I have to do, plus satisfying my own curiousity).

Will my (someday) Wii still be fun in 2008?

terceiro — Mon, 18 Dec 2006 17:38:43 -0800

WiiFilter: Long-term love or short-term crush? [more inside, obviously] Having procrastinated the purchasing of a Wii for my 10-year-old son, I have given up all hope of acquiring one before Christmas. Instead, he'll get some legos and a coupon for a Wii later. Maybe a copy of Zelda, though I can't decide if the game is either a) a guarantee that I'll actually produce the console later or b) awful torture for a 10-year-old. But that's not the question.

I am intrigued by Wii, but I'm a little concerned that the unique gameplay makes for a great demo experience but lousy long-term fun. Many things can be fun for a few minutes, and some of those upfront fun experiences can sour over extended exposure. So I have a question for all you Wii owners (you scum, you lousy enjoyers of that which I should have planned to enjoy earlier): does the initial shine of the new experience of the Wii wear off over time? If you got yours back on the 19th, is it as much fun now? Do you think, now that you've had a whole month of play-time, that it will remain as fun in two years?

For the record, I'm rooting for Wii to succeed long-term, but since I have never as yet even touched one, I am in no position to judge. Thanks.

GlobalWarmingSpeculationFilter

Alterscape — Sun, 19 Nov 2006 18:55:16 -0800

Where can I learn about the possible consequences of future global warming, sea-level-rise, etc on the climate of the continental US? Research for that sci-fi story I'm playing with. What would likely happen to the climate of the US if one of the worse-case scenarios in terms of climate change were to occur? I'm particularly interested in the southwestern US, and Appalachia, for now, but if anyone out there has generated maps or other reports dealing with the whole country (world?) that would be nice to know about too. I know climate prediction is an inexact science at best, but I'm looking for articles (layperson or scholarly) and other resources that I can use to inform my thinking and make interesting hypothetical predictions that are at least somewhat within the realm of possibility.

TradeSports.com Legal in America?

sebrenner — Fri, 16 Jun 2006 13:37:37 -0800

Is it against the law for US citizens or residents to trade on overseas futures markets such as TradeSports.com? Many view these types of prediction markets as gambling or betting. Does anyone have any experience with the US legal system's view of US residents and citizens participating in these sorts of prediction markets?

Culture on Psychology and Strategy

arrhn — Tue, 21 Feb 2006 18:04:50 -0800

I've been thinking about strategy a lot recently, and one of the things I stumbled upon that isn't really well covered is the impact of cultural phenomena on attitudes and actions. Are there general ideas in a culture's history that leads them to their view of the world today? I wonder, because different cultures have characteristic qualities that people pick up on. Where did these come from, and can we perform predictive analysis based on these characteristics? For example, one could argue that the Chinese are historically pacifist people. One possible source of this attitude is the strength of Confucianism in China, both historically and today. What follows is an attitude much like this: the kid standing in front of the tank column at Tiananmen.

John Keegan addresses the idea of war as culture in "A History of Warfare," but this is more generalized in addressing warrior versus soldiering cultures. Do any resources exist that address this sort of cultural analysis?

Do they always go east?

Chuckles — Thu, 22 Sep 2005 02:35:26 -0800

Shouldn't hurricane track predictions have a skewed distribution due to the nature/direction of steering winds? The National Hurricane Center's Forecast Verification page doesn't address the possibility - or maybe I just can't read...

Stop plate tectonics!!

billysumday — Thu, 16 Jun 2005 14:32:46 -0800

Is there a big earthquake in California's near future? There have been three earthquakes over 5 on the Richter Scale in California in the last week, two in Southern California. As a jumpy little fella living in Los Angeles, I'm worried that this a predilection of worse things to come. Or is it just the earth letting off steam? I know that no one can predict this stuff, but are there any seismologists out there who want to give it a shot?

Global Warming - which country will handle it best?

Meridian — Sat, 28 Aug 2004 03:15:27 -0800

Which country will cope best with Global Warming over the next 50 years? As an Australian (living abroad), I used to think that Australia would endure the effects of Global Warming better than some more populous countries. But after reading about growing salinity problems, soil degradation and deforestation back home, now I'm not so sure. Are there any sources of information that detail the predicted effects over the course of the next 50 - 100 years for different areas of the world? And even better, I'd be very interested in detailed info focused on Australia, on a state-by-state basis.

Where can I find stories from the past about what now would be like?

wackybrit — Mon, 12 Jul 2004 14:18:56 -0800

I'm looking for a story written in Victorian times, which was basically the author predicting what everything would be like in the 1990's. I think it was in Project Gutenberg, and it had funny predictions such as that we'd all have wires going from our houses to local concert halls so we could listen to the 'latest music' in every room! This story has eluded me for some years now, and I want to read it again. And to avoid this becoming a useless 0 answer question, if anyone can recommend any other notable old stories or books which try to guess what the future would be like, this is the ideal place!