Ask MetaFilter questions tagged with odds

Parvovirus: odds of a puppy getting it?

zippy — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 23:34:45 -0800

I understand the danger parvovirus poses to puppies, but what are the odds of a puppy contracting the disease in the US (specifically Alameda County, California)? I have been reading about parvovirus in dogs (including this discussion), and understand how serious the illness is.

What I can't seem to find is any indication of risk or prevalance. What are the odds a dog will get parvo, and how many cases of it are there a year in my area?

The more mathematical and bounded the answer, the better. I know I can't be assured to the fifth decimal place about anything, but I want to know: Parvo, this terrible disease, are the odds 1%, 10%, or 100%?

More details below, in the hope that they may allow more exact bounding of the answer.

My dog is five weeks old. He was one of the larger dogs in the litter (with two or three brothers and a sister), which I understand tends to confer longer maternal immunity. I intend to start him on a full vaccine series for parvo.

He's 3/4 Australian Cattle Dog, 1/4 Fox Terrier. He was born in a remote rural area of Humboldt County, California, and as of a few days ago now lives in a semi-urban area in Alameda County.

I keep him mostly indoors, with trips to the back and front yard for exercise. I understand that completely preventing exposure to parvo is impossible (as the virus hardy and survives for long periods in the soil), but also that minimizing exposure to parvo greatly reduces the chances for infection.

I would like to know:

How common is parvo in Humbolt County and in Alameda County? Or, if these specific numbers aren't available, then whatever numbers are available for California or the US. A link to numbers of cases per year would be ideal.

What are the odds of a puppy getting parvo between the ages of 5 and 16 weeks if he's allowed to socialize with a: known dogs (with shots), or b: occasionally visit parks and meet other non-wild dogs.

Links to scholarly papers are fine, and links to the dog equivalent to the CDC would also appreciated.

If this is too specific, or if there isn't enough information, please let me know. Also, I do know how bad the illness itself is.

Daddy needs a new game of choice...

who else — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 21:45:07 -0800

On a single round of betting at a casino what is the best odds? (One that doesn't require skill such as BJ or Poker. Something where I can just walk up and put a chip(s) somewhere like Roulette or Craps.) I know nothing about gambling but I was recently in Vegas for the first time and I thought I had better not come all this way and not gamble. So I bet on red/black which pays 1:1, and I figured it ought to be close to 50/50 odds minus the 2 zeros which gives the house a slight edge. Then my friend told me that if I bet on 1-12 and 13-24 at the same time I've got 24 out of 38 numbers covered and the total payout will still be 1:1 if I win on one of them and lose on the other.
Anyway, what's the best bet I can make?

What are the chances of spinning a Yahtzee on the first roll?

R. Mutt — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 18:00:10 -0800

What are the chances of spinning a Yahtzee on the first roll? This happened during a real game and we wanted to find out what the odds were of it happening. (A Yahtzee is 5 dice of the same number.)

Streak for the Math

rooftop secrets — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 13:43:33 -0800

Theoretically, what would be the best way to game the ESPN 'Streak for the Cash' game? (Note: I do not actually want to do this) ESPN recently introduced a game on their website called Streak for the Cash, which gives you a set of different picks every day that you can make on who will win a game or score more points or other 'prop' type bets. Each of these picks have odds right around the 50/50 mark, and in order to win the game you need to string together 27 corrects picks (I don't know the math exactly, but I know that's a very low probability of success-- although you can improve your odds slightly with some sports knowledge).

So the question is, how many people would you need and what strategy would you employ to effectively improve your odds to the point that you could win? Is it even possible, or would you need so many people that it wouldn't be feasible? (Again, I don't actually want to organize this, but I was having a conversation about it and am not smart enough to figure it out myself).

Key points:
- There are about 10-12 different 'bets' you can make per day in a variety of sports.
- You do NOT have to pick every day, and you can pick multiple bets per day as long as the prior game has finished. In other words, if you sat in front of the computer and picked the games furthest apart during the day, you could probably make up to 2-4 picks a day.

$500 on GSP FTW

googly — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 12:50:33 -0800

How do I make sense of the "moneyline" form of betting odds for mixed martial arts? I'm trying to understand the way that betting on mixed martial arts works. I have read the description here, so I think I have the basics down. But I'm curious about one thing. The opening line for the GSP/BJ Penn fight is Georges St-Pierre -245 vs. B.J. Penn +175. If I understand this correctly, this means that a $245 bet on GSP results in a $100 profit, and a $100 bet on Penn results in a $175 profit.

My question is, why can't a savvy bettor hedge and come out ahead every time? For example, say I bet $100 on both fighters:

If GSP wins I win $140.82 and lose $100 to net $40.82.
If Penn wins, I win $275 and lose $100 to net $175.

So I come out ahead no matter who wins. This cannot be right; there is no way that I have stumbled on a foolproof moneymaking scheme. So what am I missing? Hidden commissions on placing bets? Have I misunderstood the explanation? Is my math bad? Do I need more caffeine today?

Math and Odds and Blackjack

gummo — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 14:50:03 -0800

What are the chances, in blackjack, that I will start with 15, and the dealer will be showing a 10 (or face card worth 10)? Despite the fact that my buddy thinks the odds of this are near 100%, I've tried to calculate the actual odds (assuming a single deck).

I've come up with 2.62% -ish. Not really sure if I'm right.

I started with all the possible hands I could have.
2652 (52 * 51)

Then I figured out how many hands would give me 15.

64 hands with a 10 (or equivalent) and a 5.
64 hands with a 5 and a 10.
16 hands with a 9 and a 6.
16 hands with a 6 and a 9.
16 hands with an 8 and a 7.
16 hands with a 7 and an 8.
16 hands with an ace and a 4.
16 hands with a 4 and an ace.

These fall into two groups, those that have a 10, and therefore deprive the dealer of one, and those that don't.

128 hands have a 10.
96 hands are 15 some other way.

If I have a 10, she has 15 cards left, out of 50, to get a 10.
If I don't she has 16 out of 50.

So my odds of making a 15 using a 10 (or face card) are 4.8%.
Her odds of then having a 10 showing are 30%.

So we have a 1.44% chance of that happening.

-Plus-

Me making 15 some other way: 3.7%.
And her having a 10 showing: 32%.

Gives us 1.18% for that second scenario.

So 2.62% of my having 15 and the dealer showing a 10 or face card.

Two questions.
Assuming a single deck, is this correct?
Assuming multiple decks, what changes (if anything)?

If I'm wrong, where did I go wrong? (It would help my brain to have a combination of english and math to explain where I went wrong, rather than just something like "you should have used a factorial for possible hands 52!-4!", etc...)

Thanks.

I'm only going to ride streetcars from now on

NoRelationToLea — Fri, 30 May 2008 09:32:33 -0800

Inspired by this question - how does one really asses how "safe" a mode of transportation is? For example, the National Safety Council calculates odds of dying for all sorts of modes of transportation (here) - is cycling really 18 times safer than riding in a car? Is riding around in a 3 wheel vehicle really 460 times safer than walking around on foot? Or are those numbers simply a result of the fact that relatively few people bicycle, and almost nobody runs around on 3 wheels?

Coin flip odds?

rocket88 — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 08:47:22 -0800

Statistics question: How can I calculate the odds of flipping a coin to get x consecutive heads anywhere within a data set of y flips. (more inside) Here's the background: I was attempting to explain the phenomenon that unlikely outcomes become more likely to occur as the number of total events increases, to someone who attributes those unlikely outcomes to evidence of "unseen forces".
So my response was along the lines that if you flip a coin ten times, the odds of flipping ten heads are very slim (1023 to 1 against, I believe), but at some larger number of flips (N), the odds of having ten consecutive heads are even (1:1), and at some yet larger number of flips (M) the odds of not having ten consecutive heads is 1023 to 1 against.
1. How do I calculate N and M?, and
2. Is there a name for this phenomenon? (It's similar to the law of large numbers, but not quite)

complex dice probability make head esplode

DetonatedManiac — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 13:52:56 -0800

I need a tool to help me analyze the probability of certain events occurring regarding a pool of X dice for a game I am creating. See my examples below. I am looking for a dice statistics program or, baring that, a set of formulas I could input into excel, that can answer the following questions. Graphing capabilities are a plus.

Some of the events I want to analyze:

1) The probability that, from a pool of X dice, Y dice can be chosen by a player such that the sum of the Y dice is equal or lesser than a number N.

2) Related to the previous question; of the pools that succeed what is the distribution of how close they are to hitting N, (for instance, if the sum of Y dice is 10 and the number the player was aiming for was 12 then they are only off by 2).

3) In a pool of X dice How likely is it that there will be Z sets of doubles (say two 6s or snake eyes) and, more specifically, what are the chances of getting a specific set of doubles (say just snake eyes).

I am pretty statistics theory inept (never took it in school) but I am average to above average with math in general... basically please keep any advice in laymen terms as much as possible. Thanks

Who audits the advertised odds on lotteries

PercussivePaul — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 13:30:28 -0800

One in three chance you'll win a free pop, check under the cap! Does anyone audit these advertised odds? I almost never win these things. I figured with one in three odds , maybe this time... but no. Then I started wondering - maybe they're cheating.

I'm imagining some kind of sweepstakes control board, randomly buying bottles of Dr. Pepper at convenience stores across the country to do samplings of who wins... crack statisticians ensuring that winners are evenly distributed across regions... yeah right. So how do I know they're not cheating?

math-and-logic-filter: only two more floors - I'm almost there! or am I?

krautland — Fri, 20 Jul 2007 10:27:19 -0800

math-and-logic-filter: only two more floors - I'm almost there! or am I? I currently reside on the 23rd floor of a 50-floor apartment building. my elevators are slow and I am notorious for my tardiness. so every other morning I find myself staring at the little digits counting down the floors as I decent into the lobby. "8..7..6..almost there." I think to myself, "surely nobody will stop the elevator NOW."

but do my chances of making it to the lobby without being stopped actually increase with every floor I pass (because there are less people who could stop the elevator with every floor)? or do they stay exactly the same (1:2) because just like the dice, the game starts over again with every new floor?

I'm almost ashamed to post this question since it will undoubtedly reveal that a gerbil on vicodin has a better grasp of basic math or logic problems than I do. my stalker would almost certainly like to assure you I have plenty of redeeming qualities.

Where to find fun statistical odds?

drkrdglo — Thu, 07 Jun 2007 12:37:26 -0800

Where can I find quick, reliable everyday probability/statistical information on the net? I am doing some quick and dirty statistical research for a project I'm working on. I'm looking for a site full of different sports/general life odds to compare against a set of odds I already have.

For example: Let's say "event x" has a probability of 1 in 5. I'm trying to put together statements like: "You have a better chance of 'event x' than ________________." I need to fill in that blank with different events with worse odds, hence I need to find a place where I can find already computed data to throw in there (IANAM). My primary focus is sports odds (not so much betting and team odds as event odds - like seeing a home run or grand slam at a baseball game, or bowing three strikes in a row).

I'm just looking for some high level sites. If you know of any sites with these fun little statistical facts throw them at me!

Where can I gamble on Macworld announcements?

hihowareyou — Mon, 08 Jan 2007 10:13:10 -0800

Where (online) can I gamble on what will be announced at MacWorld tomorrow? I believe bodog previously had odds on the iphone release, but according to this page there currently aren't any Business/Financial betting lines available. Anyone know another site that is currently taking bets?

Philly or SF, which is safer?

rorycberger — Thu, 10 Aug 2006 11:14:30 -0800

Which city is safer: San Francisco or Philadelphia? I know there are a million "safest/least safe" cities lists available, but most of them are based only on violent crime statistics. I'm looking for a comprehensive assessment that factors in things like the chances that an earthquake is going to destroy san francisco tomorrow, the chances that terrorists drop a bomb on philadelphia, the odds that I'd get hit by bus, struck by lightening, etc. Also I'd like to factor in the proximity to other safe/unsafe cities, just in case I happen to get lost and end up in, say, Camden or Oakland. For purposes here, I'm only concerned about things that will kill me, not so much things that might wound or emotionally scar me. All things considered, where would I be safer?

[yes, this is to settle a bet]

collect 'em all - what are the odds?

ab3 — Fri, 02 Jun 2006 09:24:14 -0800

4 different models of a toy are sold in identical, sealed boxes. Assuming the 4 different models are produced/sold/distributed in equal numbers, etc..., what are the chances of buying only 4 boxes, chosen at random (at different times, even), and getting all 4 different toys? It happened to me. When I got the last one I felt like I had won the lottery. Seems like the chances would be pretty slim - I know this is probably about as basic as probability questions go, but I'm no mathematician. And if you're interested, the toys in question were Gary Baseman's collectible vinyl Fire Water Bunny series:

What are the odds that I'm such a loser?

TonyRobots — Fri, 26 May 2006 19:47:13 -0800

Probability filter: How do you determine the odds of being extremely unlucky? I know I've seen this explained, but my google-fu fails me, as does my brute-force mathematical figuring. Here's my problem -- if there's a game in which you're supposed to win 12% of the time, what are the odds that after 150 plays you only win 3 times (i.e. 2% of the time)?

What are the odds of getting shot if held up at gunpoint?

spiderskull — Mon, 31 Oct 2005 20:03:50 -0800

Someone told me that there was a 9 in 10 chance of getting shot if one is held up at gunpoint. Is this true? If the odds are this high in favor of getting shot, someone's best bet would be to try either thwarting the gunman or running like hell. I've read a few sites on the issue, but can't find any solid evidence.

Has anyone done a study on this, and what would be the best way to react to being held up at gunpoint?

What are the odds? Craps vs. Blackjack

srboisvert — Thu, 23 Sep 2004 12:50:59 -0800

Which game has better odds: Craps or Blackjack and why?

Scratch lottery ticket quesiton

Slimemonster — Fri, 09 Jul 2004 12:42:02 -0800

What can people tell me about scratch lottery tickets? [more inside] How are they produced? like in a factory somewhere? What is the stuff made of that you scratch off? They say there's a one in 5 chance of winning something on them...is that true? Who determines what numbers or whatever go on the ticket under the scratch material? My guess is computer generation, anyone know better?