A coin flips three times and comes up heads 2/3. Not suspect.
But a coin flips 100,000 times and comes up heads 2 out of 3 times, that starts to look fishy. The standard probability of this is always roughly 50-50, but assuming a 2/3 ratio pointing to a "rigged" coin, how could you plot the increasing likelihood that a given coin is rigged? [more inside]
posted by ASoze
on Jan 8, 2014 -
I have a question about probability math. I am essentially flipping a coin (except instead of a 50/50 chance, my odds are 50.5% heads, 49.5% tails).
I am concerned with the probability of me hitting heads (a 50.5% chance) several times in a row. [more inside]
posted by disillusioned
on Dec 25, 2013 -
Each card in a certain deck has three letters on it.
The first letter is either A, B, or C.
The second letter is either D, E, F, or G.
The third letter is either H, I, J, K, or L.
Every possible combination is represented exactly once in the deck. Ergo, there are 3x4x5=60 cards in the deck.
How can I determine the probability that a hand of X cards, drawn randomly from the deck, will include at least one of each of the letters?
posted by CustooFintel
on Nov 2, 2013 -
In this game, you roll a number of six-sided dice to get a total
. The total is either the highest single die result, or the sum of any multiples rolled, whichever is higher.
For example: If I roll three dice and get a 3, 4, and 6, my total is 6. But if I roll a 4, 4, and 6, my total is 8, the sum of the two 4s.
What I want to find out is the mean, median, mode, and standard deviation of the possible totals given N dice. How might I create a simple script to compute this? [more inside]
posted by j0hnpaul
on Nov 30, 2012 -
What great books or resources are there for practicing probability word problems such as for standardized tests like the GRE? [more inside]
posted by Mr. Papagiorgio
on Nov 8, 2012 -
Statisticsfilter: Given available information about the distribution of self-selected 4-digit passwords (specifically banking PINs), is it possible to calculate the probability of two randomly selected individuals having the same PIN? If so, what're the odds? [more inside]
posted by myrrh
on Oct 27, 2012 -
I'm looking to learn how to calculate probabilities for a multi-round dice game. I've researched this question some, and it looks like I might need to know how to use the multinomial distribution, but I can't find any good introductions. Please point me to the most layman-accessible educational material on this subject, and help me to help myself. [more inside]
posted by Richard Daly
on Sep 28, 2012 -
How would one (legally) take advantage of the change in odds of a given NFL team to win the Super Bowl? [more inside]
posted by glenngulia
on Sep 24, 2012 -
Math/probability not sports: I am not a gambler, but I am trying out a method of betting on sports with some initial success. At what point can I use the numbers to confidently assume that this is down to the system rather than luck? [more inside]
posted by cincinnatus c
on Sep 19, 2012 -
Please refresh my memory with regard to a straightforward question of fair dice and probability. [more inside]
posted by Justinian
on Jan 20, 2011 -
Help me teach myself enough about probability to properly balance the board game I want to design. [more inside]
posted by Caduceus
on Aug 9, 2010 -
Stats-filter: Given a binary matrix, if I know the total number of ones in a given row and a given column, can I calculate the probability that a given position contains a one? [more inside]
posted by chrisamiller
on Dec 16, 2009 -
Here's an obnoxious school question that's been nagging me for days:
Suppose that the height (at the shoulder) of adult African bull bush elephants is normally distributed with µ = 3.3 meters and ∂ = .2 meter. The elephant on display at the Smithsonian Institute has a height 4 meters and is the largest elephant on record. What is the probability that an adult African bull bush elephant has height 4 meters or more? [more inside]
posted by incomple
on Dec 8, 2009 -
What are the chances, in blackjack, that I will start with 15, and the dealer will be showing a 10 (or face card worth 10)? [more inside]
posted by gummo
on Oct 28, 2008 -
You're dealt 8 cards face down from a 52 card deck. All values are determined by the number on the card, not the suit. What is the probability of each card being dealt? [more inside]
posted by b_thinky
on Jul 9, 2008 -
I need a tool to help me analyze the probability of certain events occurring regarding a pool of X dice for a game I am creating. See my examples below.
posted by DetonatedManiac
on Dec 21, 2007 -
Given a fair die with s
sides, what is the expected number of rolls r
before I get o
outcomes with the same value v
in a row? [Note this is emphatically NOT
a homework problem; I just really want to know, feel like I should be able to figure it out, can't, and it is driving me nuts.] [more inside]
posted by lucasks
on Dec 19, 2007 -
MathFilter: Okay, I've got this gumball machine, which contains an infinite amount of gumballs, evenly distributed between 100 different flavors... [more inside]
posted by rifflesby
on Sep 1, 2006 -
Probability of one binomially-distributed variable being greater than another one - is there a closed form for this? [more inside]
posted by wanderingmind
on May 25, 2006 -
Probability: A coworker is having an issue with deriving a few formulas for a Weibull distribution. Any pointers? [more inside]
posted by TommyH
on Nov 7, 2005 -
Suppose there are 20 objects hidden in a collection of 270 haystacks. What are your odds of searching 100 haystacks (assuming that if you choose to search a haystack with an object in it, you'll find that object) without finding an object? My discrete math skillz have eroded to the point where any attempt to work this out myself yields preposterous numbers..
posted by COBRA!
on Dec 1, 2004 -
If the likelihood of event A occurring is 15%, and the likelihood of independent event B occuring is 5%, what is the likelihood of EITHER event occuring? [more inside]
posted by sohcahtoa
on Sep 10, 2004 -