Ask MetaFilter questions tagged with betting

What do I root for in this Superbowl bet?

ODiV — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 09:15:05 -0800

Based on my Superbowl bet, what should I be hoping for? I'm going to a Superbowl party where I'll be watching the game. I don't follow football at all so I figured I'd put a wager on it to make it more interesting.

A friend is running a betting system for a group of us selling "Superbowl Squares" (described here). The payouts are for the end of each quarter (none for end of game).

My numbers are (Cardinals-Steelers): 4-2, 6-1, 6-2, and 8-3. In my limited knowledge of football scoring, those don't seem like amazing numbers. Also, I know nothing about the play of the two teams.

Could someone take a very rough stab at my chances? More importantly, what are some realistic situations that I can root for which might lead to the right scores?

Should I be hoping the teams make touchdowns, but miss the kick that follows (wikipedia tells me that's called a "point-after touchdown") so that the score is 6-12? More examples would be appreciated, including the strenghts/weaknesses of the teams involved would be even better.

Help setting up an office pool

jestonb — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 11:27:55 -0800

I would like to start on office pool on a number of questions, like "How long until our boss quits?", "Who will be the next President?" and other questions. Can anyone think of a free on-line tool to set this up?

Obama assassination : 1 in 55?

zaebiz — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 14:00:32 -0800

Does the fact that the betting markets still give Hillary Clinton a 1 in 55 chance of being President in 2008, mean that that is a reasonable estimate of the chance that Obama is assassinated before the election? What else could justify those odds now?

What happened to Wired's professional bettors?

geoff. — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 08:45:48 -0800

Remember this Wired article about "computer teams" analyzing horse races in Asia? What became of that? Were the theories sound? What exactly were they doing? Are there any other articles, academic or otherwise, about modeling horse races? The article sparked my interest, and I'm interested in the mathematics and theory behind this, yet I'm unable to find any references to statistical betting beyond the Wired article. In fact the names in the article don't even Google well.

I have a hard time believing that there are betting quants earning 24% returns in Hong Kong somewhere. Did these "funds" eventually go bust? Did they exist at all?

What was the payout on this wager?

zembla3 — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 17:24:09 -0800

Belmont Stakes question: What was the payout on a 2 dollar exacta box (24 dollar total wager because the box had four horses) that included Da'Tara and Denis of Cork?

If gambling were legal, I'd do this with money at stake.

Dec One — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 04:34:26 -0800

I like playing in sports-related picking contests with friends. In the fall, I play in a football pool in which each participant picks every NFL game against the spread, and the winner is the person who has the most correct picks over the entire season. Right now, I'm in a couple of NCAA basketball pools. What other contests like these can I organize? I like that these contests don't involve a lot of skill or time. The football pool is perfect, because picking against the spread is like predicting the outcome of a coin toss. We have people in the pool who know nothing about football, and last year one of them won second place. The basketball pool is good too, because any idiot can pick most of the higher seeds, maybe pick a few upsets for fun, and win the pool.

Full-fledged fantasy sports are way too complicated (You have to draft players, keep track of who's playing well, who's injured or on a bye week, make judgments about which free agents are worth picking up, etc.). Casual fans would not want to play these games against hard-core fans, because they would be at a disadvantage. And I don't want to scare off casual fans.

Something like this idea is a step in the right direction, but still a little too dependent on skill over luck, as each contestant would have to judge how good each home run hitter will be. (In case you don't feel like clicking on the link: it's a sort of fantasy baseball lite, involving home runs only).

I should clarify that I'm willing to looking to organize and run something, not to join an existing game. So, what other ideas for games does the hive mind have? Something baseball-related would be nice, as that season is just starting up. But it doesn't have to be sports-related. Maybe something politics-related? Or the weather?

I'll bet you that

um_maverick — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 06:59:30 -0800

Looking for some ideas for sporting-team-related-bets - I'm a Red Sox fan, coworker is a Yankees fan, and we're looking for ideas for both bets (e.g., Which team wins more games) and payoffs (e.g., loser has to wear opposing team's jersey to work for a day) We're looking to avoid monetary bets, and he's already taken tattoos off the table. Fun/slightly embarassing ideas are good, permanent/potentially job-losing ideas are probably over the line. For bets, so far we've discussed # of wins, playoff finish, team ERA, team batting average, and team OPS, but I'm sure the hive mind has far more ideas than we could come up with.

If it matters or helps, he's in NYC, I'm in Boston, and we both work in IT consulting. We'd like to get as many small bets as possible lined up by the end of spring training. Thanks!

I'd Wager that A Lot of Money Was Bet on March Madness

sjuhawk31 — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 07:49:38 -0800

Sports Betting Filter: How can I determine approximately how much money was bet on the NCAA (men's basketball) tournament last year and where that ranks on the most gambled-upon sporting events of the year? I'm doing an article on the NCAA tournament and one of the angles I want to use is the amount of time and money people devote to it.

Are there any good scoring systems for running a NCAA bracket pool?

zacharyseibert — Wed, 14 Mar 2007 13:10:23 -0800

MarchMadnessFilter: Are there any good scoring systems for running a NCAA bracket pool? I'm running a bracket pool in my dorm, and I was just looking for a good way to score it. There will be probably 20ish people, at a 5 dollar buy-in. Any scoring system will do, but I really want to find a way to incorporate upset-wins into the points system.

Thanks in advance!

Mathematicial inefficiencies of sports betting markets

vizsla — Sun, 17 Dec 2006 11:59:50 -0800

Mathematicians, I've always suspected there is a real opportunity to exploit the inefficiencies of the online sports betting markets and amateur bettors and make serious money. Have you felt the same way or am I kidding myself? For example, the odds across different sites for the same event are often substantially different. Is there some sort of arbitrage opportunity there? Also, I have a feeling that bettors (I assume bettors dictate how the odds are created?) overreact to events. By studying the longterm relationship between events and final outcomes and comparing to the odds at the time of the events, couldn't some pattern of inefficiency be identified which could be exploited? Any other statistically-sound ideas you've had about this? (FYI, the three sites I have my eye on are betfred.com, betfair.com and centrebet.com.)

Greyhound tracks near TO?

jamesonandwater — Sat, 14 Oct 2006 13:40:16 -0800

Where can we go greyhound racing in or near Toronto, Ontario? Nobody at work seems to know anything about the sport, and my googling attempts are not turning up anything.

OK, so is this guy magic, or what?

nevercalm — Thu, 07 Sep 2006 18:58:59 -0800

I need a little help figuring out the odds of a baseball pool scenario actually occurring. (And correctly constructing this question, it looks like). My co-workers run a baseball pool (this is, of course, hypothetical). As I don't do any betting myself and pay no attention to sports, I have an at-best cursory understanding of the many ways people can wager money on these sorts of things. That being said, here is the deal:

-Each week, each bettor is assigned 2 new teams, drawn randomly from a hat. Teams are picked until all are assigned.
-The first bettor to have either of his/her teams who scores a total of 16 runs in that week (just one team, not both combined) wins the pool.
-If no team achieves this goal, the money is thrown back in and the whole process starts again the following week.

What is the chance that one bettor would win the pool on 5 of the 6 weeks that the pool existed? And what effect would consecutivity have on that result (ie 5 weeks in a row vs 2)?

Extra credit for making it understandable to the many laymen I will be showing your correct answer to.

Scuttlebutt around the building has that this is approaching statistical impossibility, and they have stopped the pool as a result. I have my doubts, but it seemed like an interesting enough question to ask.

How to interpret online betting odds

VillageLion — Thu, 10 Aug 2006 07:45:12 -0800

How do I interpret the odds at Tradesports.com? I have no idea how to interpret the odds at sites like Tradesports.com. Can anyone explain or point me to a good tutorial? I have no idea what things like "best to buy" and "best to sell" mean, for instance.

TradeSports.com Legal in America?

sebrenner — Fri, 16 Jun 2006 13:37:37 -0800

Is it against the law for US citizens or residents to trade on overseas futures markets such as TradeSports.com? Many view these types of prediction markets as gambling or betting. Does anyone have any experience with the US legal system's view of US residents and citizens participating in these sorts of prediction markets?

How do you use the OTB?

miniape — Wed, 19 Apr 2006 09:31:59 -0800

Help me use the Off Track Betting facility. I work across the street from an NY OTB establishment. I like betting horses casually at the track, and I've used the OTB in big races (like the derby). I'd like to pop in there at lunch, fill out a few forms and see if I can make a few bucks.

Ideally, I'd just like to fill out the forms based on the numbers and collect within ten or fifteen minutes. But the multitude of races, tracks, and betting options befuddle me. Are there constantly races going on? Can someone give me step by step directions on how to do this, from finding the races on the screen (or booklet or whatever) to filling out the form. I'm guessing it's probably a lot easier than it looks, but they certainly don't make it very clear.

Also, if you've got any strategies that don't require actually following racing and horses closely, I'd like those too. I have a goal to make my lunch money two days of the week.

"shading lines" what does it mean?

specialk420 — Mon, 17 Oct 2005 17:57:42 -0800

what does "shading lines" mean in terms of sportsbooks and sports betting?

Betting Tips

jonah — Sun, 13 Mar 2005 21:52:10 -0800

Even with the big March event coming up, this is a hypothetical question. In a state like California, is there a legal way to bet on sports? Also, are there grey areas in betting, such as internet betting?

Fix my betting system.

Dreamghost — Thu, 16 Dec 2004 11:23:41 -0800

What's the flaw in this horse racing betting system? [MI] 1. Get some reliable tips, like 25%-30% accuracy over the last 2 years. You might want to compare tipsters for each race.

2. Initialise your "bling" score, indicating the number of currency units you want to make per bet, e.g. 10.

3. Never bet odds-on (i.e. where the first digit of the odds fraction is smaller than the second).

4. Divide bling by the odds fraction. Round up to something, e.g. half your initial bling. Stake this amount.

a) If you win, begin the cycle again at stage 2.

b) If you lose, add together your current bling, your initial bling, and your stake. This becomes your new bling. Bet on the next race from stage 4.

5. If you get a long losing streak and are getting scared by the bet amounts, start the process again and come back to the current cycle when you have some more money.

I don't know what I'm talking about, of course, but I can't see the risk with this system, as long as you have enough money to buffer with so you can get over a streak of losing tips. However, the amount is unlikely to be very much, since you are extremely unlikely to get more than 10 losers in a row, say.

Of course I don't believe in get-rich-quick schemes, so where's the flaw in the system I'm missing here?

Why gamble?

jonmc — Mon, 15 Nov 2004 19:10:52 -0800

For gamblers, what's the attraction? [more inside] I can understand the fun of getting together to play cards with freinds, or going on a toot in Vegas once in awhile. I even Understand compulsive behavior. But only if there's a payoff. You drink your drink, you get drunk; you take your dope, you get high; you pay your hooker, you get your sex. And it's not "winning" since you lose the overwhelming majority of the time. But I've never been able to understand how throwing money away becomes a compulsion. What I'm asking is what's the attraction driving the compulsion of a heavy duty gambler? I'm honestly trying to understand.

Is there any way to wager on a Presidential or Congressional election?

goethean — Wed, 18 Aug 2004 12:31:14 -0800

Is there any way (legally or otherwise) to actually wager on an upcoming Presidential or Congressional election [mo inside]. [By the way, anyone remember my last AskMe question about the noise in my wall? I've come to the conclusion that there is a drainpipe/gutter in there, and that it is water in the drainpipe that is the noise. In the winter, the water is freezing and thawing.]

Anyway, about election wagering, I know about the Iowa Electronic Markets. But this is different. I've been arguing politics with strangers on the Internet (which is counter-indicated), and I just don't think that they believe in what they say. And if they were willing to put their money where their mouth is, I'm relatively certain that I'd be coming into some cash. Any ideas on how this could be worked that would be thief-proof? I would just need to deposit cash with a third party that would distribute the money correctly depending on the election results.

Show me some edges in horseracing.

RavinDave — Tue, 06 Jul 2004 02:27:54 -0800

Any horse handicappers here? What are your favorite techniques? Which race
factors do you tend to zero in on? What sort of betting strategy or angles do you employ? Do you parlay? hedge? do straight tickets? dabble in the exotics? play it ultra-conservative? do birthdates? Understand, I haven't been to the track or placed an actual bet for well over a decade. You'll have to take it on faith that although I attended regularly for 2-3 seasons – I was not hardcore in any sense of the world. I never placed more than 2 dollar bets, was quite content to sit back with my drink and skip races – biding my time for better odds, and I never took more than $20 bucks extra to the track with me. Never. The track was right next to campus and my interest was kind of academic; I was learning how to use databases, spreadsheets and general programming at the time and it was easier to learn with something concrete to code. (One can only write so many check-balancing or loan amortization apps).

Back then, I calculated my own Beyer's Speed Figures and track biases -- and did quite nicely with them. That won't work so well now that the "Daily Racing Form" supplies them for you. My former edge is diluted since 80% of the track population is now aware of'em (they might not understand their significance, but they know they are useful and so bet the hell out of'em). This can be a good thing in some regard. I can spot an inflated or flukey Beyer pretty quick and shift my attention to a better horse while the crowd is still piling money on an inferior choice. Somewhat of a consolation, I guess.

Anyway, I've starting handicapping the field again lately. Been doing it for the last month. I have not gone to the actual track – just betting an imaginary $50 stake on paper. This is not always conducive to good mental health, since I "won" and imaginary several hundred dollars on a couple of exotics. Still, the object remains the same as earlier – an ironic replay of a decade ago – I'm using it to learn some current applications and coding strategies.

To that end ... I'm curious to test other strategies(*) people might have when they go to the track. I have about three weeks of data already in MySQL and would be interested in re-examining old races using different criteria coupled with varying betting strategies.

==========
(*)Not just strategies to discern which horse will win. Though fascinating, I'm equally interested in betting strategies.

Recommend a site for gambling on the Kentucky Derby.

rorycberger — Tue, 27 Apr 2004 15:55:11 -0800

Can anyone recommend a good gambling website in order to bet on the Kentucky Derby? [more inside] I'd prefer a site that just allows me to bet with a credit card, and not have to sign up for an account or anything. Not a big issue, I just want it to be as simple as possible since I don't plan on betting on anything again until next year's derby. I'm not sure if this is an issue, but if there are any sort of commissions or fees, i'd obviously like those to be as low as possible. Finally, i'm only going to be making small bets, probably totalling about $20-30, so anything exclusively for big gamblers would definitely be out. Thanks!