The fallacy is assuming that statistic information about a thing is more relevant in dealing with a particular instance of that thing than available first-hand data.
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posted by CustooFintel
on Mar 12, 2013 -
17 answers
Can you think of a method that allows an individual to pseudo randomly create a sequence of numbers (at the very least the randomness is opaque to the minds of other people) assuming said individual may only use his mind and body (no physical tools are allowed)?
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posted by Foci for Analysis
on Dec 21, 2012 -
7 answers
In this game, you roll a number of six-sided dice to get a
total. The total is either the highest single die result, or the sum of any multiples rolled, whichever is higher.
For example: If I roll three dice and get a 3, 4, and 6, my total is 6. But if I roll a 4, 4, and 6, my total is 8, the sum of the two 4s.
What I want to find out is the mean, median, mode, and standard deviation of the possible totals given N dice. How might I create a simple script to compute this?
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posted by j0hnpaul
on Nov 30, 2012 -
24 answers
What great books or resources are there for practicing probability word problems such as for standardized tests like the GRE?
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posted by Mr. Papagiorgio
on Nov 8, 2012 -
3 answers
Statisticsfilter: Given available information about the distribution of self-selected 4-digit passwords (specifically banking PINs), is it possible to calculate the probability of two randomly selected individuals having the same PIN? If so, what're the odds?
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posted by myrrh
on Oct 27, 2012 -
15 answers
I'm looking to learn how to calculate probabilities for a multi-round dice game. I've researched this question some, and it looks like I might need to know how to use the multinomial distribution, but I can't find any good introductions. Please point me to the most layman-accessible educational material on this subject, and help me to help myself.
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posted by Richard Daly
on Sep 28, 2012 -
6 answers
What are the most mathematically 'advanced' RPG systems? Pen & paper and otherwise?
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posted by empath
on Mar 14, 2012 -
24 answers
Which probability distribution should I use to model examination results?
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posted by alby
on Jan 13, 2011 -
13 answers
Has there ever been any research done on whether there is any correlation between spurts of adding contacts to LinkedIn or LinkedIn activity and someone changing job?
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posted by MuffinMan
on Jan 12, 2011 -
2 answers
Probability filter: after eating the TD turkey we play the Turkey game which consists of tossing six dice. The six faces of each die are carved with the letters that spells turkey. Each combination of letters earn a different score (for example T U is 5 points, 3 Ts wipe all the points earned, etc.) with the first TURKEY being the winner. How many tosses would you need to spell TURKEY?
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posted by francesca too
on Nov 29, 2010 -
15 answers
How does one guess sports betting odds, or determine at what point to place a bet on a sporting event?
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posted by reenum
on Apr 6, 2010 -
9 answers
Stats-filter: Given a binary matrix, if I know the total number of ones in a given row and a given column, can I calculate the probability that a given position contains a one?
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posted by chrisamiller
on Dec 16, 2009 -
25 answers
I have a bucket containing
N marbles:
M white marbles and
N-M black marbles. I need to grab a handful of marbles (
n) and figure out the probability of having picked up
m white marbles.
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posted by Blazecock Pileon
on Nov 6, 2008 -
16 answers
How many times would I have to roll a standard 6-sided die to get a statistically representative view of whether it was truly random or not?
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posted by Bugbread
on Apr 30, 2008 -
8 answers
Suppose you take a test for a rare type of cancer that affects 0.01 percent of the population. The test is 98 percent reliable. You get a positive reading. What are the chances you have the cancer? I read this probability puzzle today and the writer said the statistical chances of you having the cancer in this scenario are less than half a percent. I don't get it. Isn't the rarity factor irrelevant compared with the test reliability? Please explain.
posted by binturong
on Apr 12, 2008 -
24 answers
for the statisticians: what probability distribution do I want to fit to my data, and how?
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posted by russm
on Jan 18, 2008 -
17 answers
I need a tool to help me analyze the probability of certain events occurring regarding a pool of X dice for a game I am creating. See my examples below.
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posted by DetonatedManiac
on Dec 21, 2007 -
7 answers
Given a fair die with
s sides, what is the expected number of rolls
r before I get
o outcomes with the same value
v in a row? [Note this is emphatically
NOT a homework problem; I just really want to know, feel like I should be able to figure it out, can't, and it is driving me nuts.]
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posted by lucasks
on Dec 19, 2007 -
30 answers
Probability: A coworker is having an issue with deriving a few formulas for a Weibull distribution. Any pointers?
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posted by TommyH
on Nov 7, 2005 -
2 answers
In my exploration of poker odds and strategies, I've developed more programs for examining situations. I need help evaluating some of the probability and statistics involved.
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posted by RustyBrooks
on Jun 5, 2005 -
10 answers
