Comments on: Predict the unpredictable NCAA Basketball Tournament

Question: Predict the unpredictable NCAA Basketball Tournament

clearly — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 17:12:39 -0800

NCAA Basketball Tournament office pool. Do you have any strategies and tips to help me win mine?

Games predicted deeper into the tournament are weighted heavier in the scoring. There will be about 20 entries. I know this is the most unpredictable sporting event around. Do you have any strategies that have helped you in the past?

By: aswego

aswego — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 17:19:25 -0800

Everyone likes to be adventurous and take risks, because it's more interesting and fun. If you want to win, lean more conservative. Especially avoid going overboard on upsets in the first round. Picking an upset that doesn't happen is more likely to hurt you than picking a favorite that loses (the prevailing underdog is more likely to be eliminated in the next round and thus not have as many long-range repercussions).

And if you end up losing, don't feel bad. It really is 90 percent luck.

By: hal_c_on

hal_c_on — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 17:38:23 -0800

Out of the 4 different 5seedvs12seed matchups there will be an upset...or 3. There has been for the past several years. Guess which one.

Also, never has a 16th seeded team beat a #1 seed. BUT, there was an occassion that #15 beat #1.

GOOD LUCK! HAVE TONS OF FUN!!!!

By: dyoneo

dyoneo — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 18:05:59 -0800

While copying the picks of any one yapping expert is a recipe for disaster - they all have blind spots, and irrational loyalties, and professional incentives to pick unlikely upsets that'll be immediately forgotten if they're wrong and parlayed into higher-payed yapping jobs if they're right - copying the consensus picks of a bunch of yapping experts (I mean, like, dozens) gives you a sort-of instant meta-expertise. If seventy per cent of the yappers on the major sports sites are picking a 12 seed over a 5 seed, there's probably a reason (or set of reasons) for it more grounded than a hunch.

A few years ago I picked most of the Sweet Sixteen and the entire Final Four this way without having watched a single game during the season. I also won an Oscar contest with hundreds of entries for a few years running by sitting at my computer the night before and googling around for the twelve people who actually knew anything about "short film (animated)."

I don't really believe in the Wisdom of the Crowd, but these were pretty validating examples of the Wisdom of the Crowd.

By: doppleradar

doppleradar — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 20:40:15 -0800

The ESPN and Sports Illustrated websites will give you a ton of information about each team when you're filling out they're interactive brackets.

As long as you don't bet the house on Memphis you should be fine.

By: aerotive

aerotive — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 21:35:11 -0800

For close seedings I've found that going with the school with more basketball tradition can be a good bet.

By: reenum

reenum — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 01:16:25 -0800

You should check out Poologic. The guy who runs it has several statistical models that show what picks to make to ensure maximum profitability in a pool.

By: reenum

reenum — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 01:19:46 -0800

P.S. You may want to call a friend who knows nothing about college basketball and have that person give you their picks. Folks such as these always seem to end up winning pools.

By: ob

ob — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 07:26:37 -0800

It's a little late, but my strategy is to play it safe but with a couple of upsets and one grudge. Mrs ob's picks are certifiably insane, but we're both in the same pool so they may end up complimenting each other. Nah, in reality we're both going to loose.