Do cruise prices fluctuate in the crazy fashion that airline tickets do?

October 9, 2007 10:49 AM

Do cruise prices fluctuate in the crazy fashion that airline tickets do? Or do they just get more expensive as it gets closer to the departure date?

I've been looking into a Royal Caribbean Cruise and the price has increased by 20% in just over a month period. One month ago the price was $400, and this past week it has been set steady at $500. The kicker is that the cruise doesn't set sail until Mid-April... at least 6 months from now so it just seems odd the price would jump so much.

This is for a 5 day cruise in Asia, which isn't as common as those for the Carribean, Bahamas, etc., so shopping around with other cruise lines is a limited option.

I've tried googling information on this but have only returned scammy looking cruise sales websites. Any industry insiders who know more about this?

Should I buy now or hold out and pray prices go down?

posted by Jimmie to travel & transportation (9 comments total)

Cruise prices definitely fluctuate significantly, but timing might depend significantly on the particular cruise.

We booked a cruise for early 2002 in mid 2001, and paid the final installment just prior to 9/11. Subsequently the price dropped quite a bit. We did wind up getting a significantly upgraded cabin, but we also paid ~2-3x what some other passengers did. for the same accommodations.

Special circumstance obviously, but it's very much driven by supply and demand, and as the ship begins to fill up, they raise the price - if it looks like they'll have empty cabins, they lower the price. An empty cabin is lost revenue, just like an empty seat on a plane.
posted by Nodecam at 11:06 AM on October 9, 2007

I just saw a travel-channel style show about cruises and it suggested to either book early (cruise lines love to have rooms booked a year in advance) or book late (cruise lines love to have the ship booked).

It's a gamble to wait as the ship may sell out, so YMMV with this knowledge.
posted by odi.et.amo at 11:21 AM on October 9, 2007

Pretty much what odi.et.amo said -- book either a year or so in advance or book less than 2 months in advance for the best prices. As you get under a year prices seem to go up, while cabin availability goes down, until you get close to sailing date, when the prices drop like rocks to fill whatever cabins aren't yet full.

With your lack of flexibility, I'd book now, because it's only going to get worse until it gets to possibly be too late.
posted by jacquilynne at 11:32 AM on October 9, 2007

Having taken the Queen Mary 2 from Southampton to New York, I agree with the experiences posted to date. I was talking to Cunard almost weekly, and noted the sharp rise then gentle decline in prices.

We booked for roughly 45% less than Cunard was originally asking, primarily by persistence but also by being flexible about our travel dates.
posted by Mutant at 11:51 AM on October 9, 2007

Yes, they do. The travel section of the Washington Post actually ran a story about this almost exactly a year ago--and the upshot is that cruises do drop prices for last-minute bookings:

The term "last-minute," by the way, applies to bookings of 59 days or less in cruise parlance. Why 59 days at the outside? Because cruisers who book in advance must make final payment 60 days in advance. The day after that, the cruise line knows exactly how many cabins it must unload and starts discounting.

I'm not a travel agent, but my extended family has done a fair bit of traveling on cruises, and our experience is that you run into a lot of other people who also regularly cruise the same week every year--and who know to book their next cruise about a year out, right after getting back from their most recent one. So it's not surprising at all to me that the cheapest rooms for an April cruise are starting to sell out.

If you are flexible about dates, I'd wait a week or so to see if the prices decline a bit, but unless you're willing to wait until a month or so before the cruise to book (and deal with chance that you might not get a cabin at all), I'd book sooner rather than later.
posted by iminurmefi at 1:08 PM on October 9, 2007

Arthur Frommer Online blog just linked to an interesting tool to get the best prices for a given cruise.

"Let's say you've been attracted by a particular cruise -- a specific ship sailing on a specific date -- but you want to make sure you're buying it at the lowest possible price. That's a task for CruiseCompete (www.cruisecompete.com).

The very same cruise may be sold for anywhere from $399 to $799 depending on the booking engine, online travel agency, or cruise discounter you check."
posted by Gortuk at 2:00 PM on October 9, 2007

Check a number of sites for cruise prices, in addition to the "over a year or under two months" rule. Icruise, Orbitz and cruise.com have each in turn offered me the best price in the past.
posted by misha at 2:44 PM on October 9, 2007

They fluctuate, but the good news is that if you buy and the price goes down, you can call RCCL and get a refund in the amount of the difference. I've done this once with no problems and my parents have probably done it at least 10 times. You just have to keep an eye on the cabin prices. Not sure if other cruise lines do it, but I know for a fact that RCCL does, regardless of how you originally booked the cruise (with them, expedia, etc).

So I say do both! Buy now and pray the prices go down! Feel free to call RCCL to confirm if you're unsure about taking advice from strangers on the internet.

Enjoy your cruise!

You can also post this and other questions on the message boards at cruisecritic.com. It's a great resource for researching and planning your trip.
posted by ml98tu at 8:29 PM on October 9, 2007

I just did some searching since I started to panic that my memory was failing me, here's language from a cruisecritic member's recent RCCL invoice:

"If your price should decrease prior to your final payment date, we can easily match the new price. If the price should decrease on or after your final payment date - the new price may or may not be applicable as some of our price programs are restricted and valid for new bookings only."

Source (login/registration probably required) (Thread it came from)

And another CC recent discussion on price drops.

Again, probably better safe than sorry to get it straight from RCCL, but I think you'll be fine unless its one of the specials for new bookings only.

FWIW my price change was after final payment had already been made. Now that I'm thinking about it, IIRC, I "lost" the cabin we had been assigned to and received a new one within the same category. We were refunded the difference and the new cabin was a better location than the original. YMMV.
posted by ml98tu at 8:59 PM on October 9, 2007