What are my chances of having twins?
September 28, 2007 11:39 PM Subscribe
IVF and statistics filter: How can I maximize my chance of getting pregnant and minimize my chance of having twins or a miscarriage?
posted by anonymous to health & fitness (5 answers total) 1 user marked this as a favorite
I am undergoing my first IVF cycle after two years of trying to get pregnant and two miscarriages. I need some help with statistics in my attempt to control what's completely out of my control.
For those not in the know: in IVF embryos are created in a petri dish, and a woman can determine the number of embryos to be transferred back to her uterus. The more you transfer, the greater your chance of pregnancy, and the greater your chance of a multiple birth.
I am trying to determine whether to transfer one or two embryos. I am almost 37 and have been described as an "ideal" candidate for IVF. I am very scared of having twins, but I'm also not eager to have either a failed IVF cycle or a third miscarriage. Here is what I know:
- I have a 40 percent chance of getting pregnant if I transfer two embryos.
- I have a 25 to 30 percent chance of getting pregnant if I transfer one.
- If I do transfer two and get pregnant, I have a 20 percent chance of having twins.
- I have a 15 to 20 percent chance of miscarriage PER EMBRYO transferred.
Originally I had considered transferring just one, but now it seems my miscarriage risk is the same as the twins risk, so it kind of cancels each other out. But IANA mathematician, so feedback is very welcome.
(IVF twins are mostly fraternal: that's when two different eggs are fertilized by two different sperm. Fraternal twins are like regular siblings. But IVF can also increase the rate of identical twins -- that's when a single fertilized egg divides into two embryos. My last pregnancy was identical twins, but I don't think that increases my chances of having another identical twin pregnancy.)