Comments on: How do you predict airline ticket prices?

Question: How do you predict airline ticket prices?

handee — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 04:36:15 -0800

How can you tell when to buy an airline ticket?

I've got to buy three return airline tickets. They're currently coming in at around 800, 600 and 700 ukp on expedia, but have been about 50ukp less (each) in the past. Should I snap them up now, or might they go back down again? Is there a way to tell?

By: pezdacanuck

pezdacanuck — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 04:55:27 -0800

The surest way to ensure you'll get a seat is to just buy them.

But... If you really want to save money, look for sales that have multiple connections. If you don't mind hopping around from airport to airport.

By: pezdacanuck

pezdacanuck — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 04:56:59 -0800

Sorry, I meant to add that there is no longer a way to predict when prices will drop other than the usual: off season, fuel pricing, charters.

By: darsh

darsh — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 04:58:47 -0800

try using Farecast - I've had really good luck with it

By: darsh

darsh — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 05:00:08 -0800

Sorry - just realised you're in the UK, I think farecast is for US airfares only.

By: handee

handee — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 05:00:18 -0800

Ah farecast looks good, but unfortunately doesn't cover my start or finish destination!

By: olinerd

olinerd — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 05:01:57 -0800

For some reason, US airlines always have their lowest fairs on a Tuesday. Aim for that?

Also, kayak.com has a little chart when you search for a flight to show how prices have changed over the last 90 days... you can get an idea of relative pricing that way.

By: chrismear

chrismear — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 05:59:00 -0800

In terms of when to buy, apparently a Wednesday three weeks before your flight is good.

In terms of when to fly, lastminute.com have just a launched a thing that compares the fares for several days either side of your chosen leaving and returning dates (screenshot). You have to chose 'My dates are flexible' to see this.

By: rongorongo

rongorongo — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 06:08:26 -0800

This is a useful article and compendium of links - for those in the UK - which may help you to find the answer

By: pineapple

pineapple — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 06:16:39 -0800

Second for Kayak.com, which shows fare trends for any fare you like (barring regional/discount carriers ie. Southwest, Ryanair).

By: grouse

grouse — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 07:31:44 -0800

The best thing to do would be to buy tickets now on an airline that will refund you the difference if the cost of your ticket goes down. For example, American Airlines does rollovers on international tickets which result in the fare difference being refunded to your original source of payment.

Frequently suggestions of buying on a certain day of a week are old wives' tales, or based on very old information. These days, airlines can and do adjust their fares and availability up to several times a day.

On the other hand, the day of the week on which you travel can affect the fare. Frequently there are cheaper fares for Tuesday/Wednesday travel.

Second for Kayak.com, which shows fare trends for any fare you like

I couldn't find the feature you describe. The "fare history" only gives recent searches. What am I missing?

By: grouse

grouse — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 07:36:10 -0800

FareCompare has a good description of the situation.

By: pineapple

pineapple — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 07:40:47 -0800

grouse: you have to search a fare, and then the fare trend shows on the upper left. From there, you can get more details or adjust the results. You don't have to be a member or logged in to access.

Here was the example I just pulled.

By: grouse

grouse — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 07:53:28 -0800

Thanks pineapple. Frustratingly, I had to go through several test searches before I found one for which the fare trend data was available.

By: pineapple

pineapple — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 08:08:12 -0800

Interesting! I've always been able to get the info on the fares I'm searching but it might be something unique to those trips, so I guess I should amend my earlier recommendation of being able to find "any fare you like" at Kayak, huh?

I was directed to Kayak by a comment in this AskMe thread (FlyerTalk as well, come to think). Since then, I've all but abandoned Expedia/Travelocity, which formerly was the least-annoying solution because of their aggregated data and searchability.

Now, I use Kayak for preliminary research, and then book directly with the airline.

By: grouse

grouse — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 08:50:31 -0800

I've always been able to get the info on the fares I'm searching but it might be something unique to those trips

The data only exists for trips for which other people have been searching for too, apparently.

By: koahiatamadl

koahiatamadl — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 15:18:47 -0800

for travel within Europe skyscanner.net is very good