should i throw the stupid plastic/metal box which is my computers' case into the garbage

October 2, 2006 5:22 PM

consider: - manufacturing costs of very small and powerful memory storage and processing capabilities falling at a fast rate - the convergence of many technologies (cellular, mobile music, cameras, internet, etc...) into devices with capabilities for each -how when you go to a coffee shop and everyone in the whole room is on a laptop could one infer from these premises (however truthful you find them to be) that the age of home computing is coming to an end? could one infer that desktops will fade out of use by the general public, preserved only by lonely programmers and developers that create the digital media landscape we consume?
posted by localhuman to technology (18 comments total)

Mobile devices are as much as a threat to home PCs as fast-food drive-thru is a threat to eating at home.
posted by damn dirty ape at 5:26 PM on October 2, 2006

1) No. It provides some level of RF shielding and protects against electric shocks. It also helps with dust protection from the components and fans.

2) No. You don't have enough data presented in your argument. Your single observation of cafés is not enough to make an inference.

3) See #2.
posted by neustile at 5:27 PM on October 2, 2006

No.
posted by NotMyselfRightNow at 5:28 PM on October 2, 2006

I don't know what sort of point damn dirty ape is trying to make, but a lot fewer people are cooking and eating at home than there were 30-40 years ago.

By the same token, lots of people in the US are using notebooks as their primary computing device. Similarly, I know a lot of people who use their blackberries for previously PC-only tasks, like e-mail, in more hours of the day than they use either desktop of notebook PCs.

In the developing world, mobile devices will likely be the first exposure most people have to computing and the Internet. Even in the developed world, there are countries where PC (desktop or otherwise) penetration is much lower than in the US. In both these sorts of markets there it's not unlikely that devices with a cell-phone like lineage may grow to fill niches filled by desktop PCs in the US. Once that happens, there is a good chance that they might even come to displace desktop PCs.

Don't believe me. It's happened before.

The PCs most people use today for our desktops, and our servers have a direct lineage back to pocket calculators, not mainframes, nor minicomputers. (Though I'll grant that those lowly calculators have adopted the morphology and evolutionary niche previously occupied by their mini and mainframe predecessors).

There are still mainframes operating, and probably even a few minicomputers, but many of both have been forced out by overgrown pocket calculators.
posted by Good Brain at 5:42 PM on October 2, 2006

Plenty of programmers and content developers use laptops already, actually.
posted by b1tr0t at 6:18 PM on October 2, 2006

the desktop era will end when they drag me kicking and screaming out of my mother's basement

seriously, what's WRONG with desktops that they should be done away with? ... did radios disappear in the 50s? ... did horses disappear when henry ford built the model t? ... (hint - "the American Horse Council estimates that horse-related activities have a direct impact on the economy of the United States of over $39 billion"^)

i've seen laptop keyboards ... desktop keyboards are easier ... desktop monitors are bigger ... and most important to the hard core, desktops have more parts available for repairs and upgrades and are a lot easier to mess with than laptops ...
posted by pyramid termite at 6:33 PM on October 2, 2006

My "desktop" has an 8-spindle RAID 50 disk array running on a cached I/O multi-channel SCSI controller, dual processors, 64 bit O/S multi-boot, and some interesting video hardware. I can start a re-boot of my Windows XP laptop at the WiFi cafe down the block, leave, go home, and send the laptop email from home, and the email is waiting in Gmail for the laptop when Firefox finally opens on it (2.2 P4 Winbook running WinXP, from 2003) back at the WiFi cafe. Rebooting Windows XP 64 bit on the desktop takes 37 seconds, desktop to logon screen.

Portability is nice, in its own way. So is demon speed. Due to physics, you can have one, or the other, still. Just because I have a Porsche (I haven't in many years), wouldn't mean I trade in my Chevy pickup.
posted by paulsc at 6:34 PM on October 2, 2006

/oc/ interesting responses, all of them. i have a feeling similar to the general attitude of the crowd here: namely that home computers will not disappear. i think this wouldn't happen due to many factors, two of which i will list here: home computers will always be faster for a cheaper amount of money, and, people have already carved out a space in their homes for the thing. what are they going to do? put a coffee table where the pc was? i don't think so.

what i find interesting, however, is that i think home computers will have to compete with mobile devices for market share in a very difficult way.

i have a feeling that home computing devices will have to significantly change their capacities, in terms of speed and aesthetics (two categories where constraints of small design don't limit them, i.e. where they might be most able to out perform a more mobile device or laptop, in order to retain that market share.

and you?
posted by localhuman at 7:09 PM on October 2, 2006

The things that were once only available on a desktop PC will shift away, to either cellphones (for mobile communication) or to televisions (for entertainment). However, there are still many instances where having a fast, upgradable, cost effective machine will win out over the alternatives.

The market has niches that will be filled, but the personal computer is a permanent fixture in the homes of the future.
posted by sirsteven at 8:05 PM on October 2, 2006

I think the PC will only become obsolete when hand-helds have input devices more convenient than the mouse-keyboard setup.
posted by Doohickie at 8:09 PM on October 2, 2006

I use the desktop tucked away as a server. Do I really need 500GB on the fly? No, I can trade out for trips and such. Most brute processing (that is that taking greater than 30 minutes) are relegated to the desktop/server. I have a feeling that sooner rather than later a home appliance will mimic this in function and people will interface with laptops and use the home appliance for things it is cost effective in doing.
posted by geoff. at 8:30 PM on October 2, 2006

The desktop PC will become obsolete once circuitry is embedded into the brain with the requisite spatial interface and top-of-the-line wireless networking. Even developers will be coding in their heads.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 9:32 PM on October 2, 2006

Laptops will become more upgradable, replacing PC's for the non hardcore nerd.
posted by blue_beetle at 9:47 PM on October 2, 2006

Yes, though I feel the transition may be somewhat slower than you seem to expect.
posted by trevyn at 10:58 PM on October 2, 2006

Why does this question stink of "I got this for an essay assignment, please help me"? No, desktops aren't going anywhere. Will laptops continue to increase in marketshare as they continue to drop in price? They sure will. I switched from desktop to laptop last year, because I don't game on my PC anymore. 80 gigs of space is plenty for me to carry around with me, especially with an 80 gig iPod for all my mp3s and a few tv shows/movies. Also, I like surfing the net on the toilet. :)
posted by antifuse at 4:04 AM on October 3, 2006

Portable technology depends on:

battery technology!

display technology

bandwidth

posted by Mr. Gunn at 5:20 AM on October 3, 2006

Desktops will become obsolete after the following technologies do:

-Pocket Calculators
-Radio
-Plain Old Telephone
-FAX
-Lead Acid Batteries (wet cells)
-TV
-Analog Clocks and watches

The point is that technologies don't disappear, they just go on and on even though new ones arrive.
posted by kc0dxh at 7:24 AM on October 3, 2006

What I see is this:

Desktops are obsolete. That doesn't mean they're going away; they're just going to stop evolving. They're commodities now. Advances in computing & the drive for higher margins will create new categories of computing.

High-end desktops are evolving into workstations. Larger displays (24"-30" are already common) will become the norm. The issue here is that most of the workstations are running a "Desktop OS."

It is neccessary to design apps that take avantage of workstation capabilities before this really starts to show it's full potential.

I also see the emergence of inexpensive, plug & play "household servers" (more capable than an NAS, but not in the same league as rack servers) as another progeny of the desktop computer.

I already have a low-rent, bailing-wire and chewing gum type of setup like this at home, as do many geek types. I have an older machine as a server of various sorts (file serving, web, even serving up a household wiki) but it required hours of tinkering. I have a "desktop" but it's really a workstation, and I have the laptop for the couch/cafe.

When this idea starts to make sense to the average computer user, and there are products that make this trivial to set up, we'll see the desktop fade away (or it'll be spread out across your house, really.)
posted by action man bow-tie at 11:00 AM on October 3, 2006