Comments on: Gambling on air travel

Question: Gambling on air travel

onlyconnect — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 07:58:41 -0800

Farecast is telling us to wait to buy tickets to Las Vegas for next weekend -- they have 58% confidence that the price will go down. How late can we wait and still be sure to get tickets?

Round trip fare from DC to Vegas is now running somewhere around $360 /person, and only 4 or 5 days ago (before NortonDC and I had decided to go) the fares were down around $215. If there's a chance they'll go down, we'd like to save the cash, but we don't want to wait so late that we lose our chance to go and watch jonmc and pips get married (and celebrate our own anniversary with some cirque du soleil and sightseeing).

So hive mind, can you give us advice on when they might run out of tickets altogether? Also, has anyone had good or bad experiences with the reliability of Farecast's predictions? (I've seen the MeFi post re its launch.) As far as we can tell, there are no conventions in Vegas that week. Thanks, in advance!

By: grouse

grouse — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 08:14:30 -0800

Which dates are you using exactly? You mean the weekend after the upcoming one?

Various fares require different advance purchase requirements. The cheapest journey right now on ITA Software's web page ($257.40) consists of an AirTran Q7FL one-way fare combined with a JetBlue M14 fare for the return. The first number in the fare code frequently (and in these particular cases) indicates the advance purchase requirement. So tomorrow you will no longer be able to buy the M14 for Monday 2OCT.

there's a chance they'll go down, we'd like to save the cash, but we don't want to wait so late that we lose our chance to go and watch jonmc and pips get married

Even if following Farecast's recommendations would save one money in the long run (which remains to be determined), it would be hard to guess for any particular case. If it's important that you go to the wedding and you won't be able to ensure that if the price goes up, then I wouldn't screw around. Just buy now.

By: JohnnyGunn

JohnnyGunn — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 09:14:03 -0800

Buy them when you can, not when you have to. It will be cheaper if you are putting a price on uncertainty and the risk of not getting tix.

By: junesix

junesix — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 10:10:55 -0800

Think about it this way. At 58%, there's almost an equally likely chance that the price will hold or even go up! Even then, if they go down, who's to say if they won't just drop by $5 or some trivial amount.

I think Farecast works well for macro predictions (months from now) but I highly doubt any level of accuracy at the micro level (day-to-day).

You're talking about next weekend.. typically airline prices have already dropped as much as they will go (prices usually started coming down at 21 days). Around 3 weeks in, airlines bring down the price to fill the plane but when you're getting really close to the date, they start to go back up to make the last-minute travelers pay dearly.

I'd buy the tickets now if you really want to go.

By: PsychoKitty

PsychoKitty — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 11:01:09 -0800

Hey, I live in Vegas and I'd suggest to buy your tix now. The LVCVA is always updating their convention calendar, so check it out. There is always something going on even when you think there isn't. The important thing is to get here, enjoy the wedding, and have a GREAT time. :)

By: disillusioned

disillusioned — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 13:50:35 -0800

All I'm going to say is to check out Site59 because they have amazing deals on last-minute, this weekend or next travel.

They force you to bundle, either with a hotel or car, but you'll be shocked at how cheap things can get there.

By: Taken Outtacontext

Taken Outtacontext — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 14:12:35 -0800

Just a heads up based on my recent experience with Farecast. A couple weeks ago I was looking for a cheap ticket from DC (IAD) to SF. Farecast listed the cheapest non-stop for over $400 RT. I went to the United site and I got it for $258 RT.

I would love to have confidence in Farecast but after this experience I'm not so sure.

By: onlyconnect

onlyconnect — Thu, 21 Sep 2006 13:40:01 -0800

Update: after the many comments urging us to BUY NOW, that's what I did, even though Farecast was suggesting we wait, and boy am I glad we did. Had we not, we would not have been able to sit together, and -- one day away from the day we fly out -- prices still have not dropped but in fact have gone up. We probably also would not have been able to get direct flights, but would have had layovers, too. So, thanks, AskMe.