Climate Change Location Change
July 21, 2022 1:00 PM Subscribe
What are some of the most climate change-resilient places I could consider moving to, both in the US and abroad?
I'm pessimistic about climate change and want to consider moving to a climate change-resilient location in the next five years. What are some places in the US and abroad (visa requirements notwithstanding) that meet the criteria below but are still interesting urban / cosmopolitan / progressive places to live, with ethnic diversity, cultural happenings, good variety of restaurants, educated / professional people, etc.?
- Not prone to flooding
- Not prone to drought / water shortages
- Not prone to wildfires
- Not prone to dangerously high heat (especially in terms of the heat index combination of temperature and humidity)
Thank you.
I'm pessimistic about climate change and want to consider moving to a climate change-resilient location in the next five years. What are some places in the US and abroad (visa requirements notwithstanding) that meet the criteria below but are still interesting urban / cosmopolitan / progressive places to live, with ethnic diversity, cultural happenings, good variety of restaurants, educated / professional people, etc.?
- Not prone to flooding
- Not prone to drought / water shortages
- Not prone to wildfires
- Not prone to dangerously high heat (especially in terms of the heat index combination of temperature and humidity)
Thank you.
The areas around the Great Lakes are supposed to be relatively OK, but as this map from the NYTimes shows, the cities around the Great Lakes are located in areas that still cary risks.
posted by coffeecat at 1:14 PM on July 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by coffeecat at 1:14 PM on July 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
Living in Minneapolis, I can't say that anywhere is going to be all that drought and heat tolerant in the climate's future. Sure, we aren't going to be in "no water to drink" drought any time soon, but there's a ton of dead grass and it's been awfully uncomfortable this summer due to heat.
posted by advicepig at 1:20 PM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by advicepig at 1:20 PM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'm pessimistic even about the places that are relatively better (even places like Vermont are experiencing more drought, *and* more flooding, and increased risk of wildfire, and more extreme heat, etc). That caveat aside, Portland, Maine, would meet some of your criteria. Rochester or Buffalo may not be as cosmopolitan as you're looking for, but would meet some of your criteria.
I remember talking to someone about this a decade ago and they said, the best place is where you are, since we all have a responsibility to make our communities more resilient. This is a problem everywhere, even Copenhagen (though yes, Copenhagen is more prepared than many places).
posted by pinochiette at 1:25 PM on July 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
I remember talking to someone about this a decade ago and they said, the best place is where you are, since we all have a responsibility to make our communities more resilient. This is a problem everywhere, even Copenhagen (though yes, Copenhagen is more prepared than many places).
posted by pinochiette at 1:25 PM on July 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
Ottawa, where I live part of the year, has kind of crappy hot summers and some regular but usually not deadly flooding in low lying areas. I don't think either of those things is anticipated to get a whole lot worse with climate change. Not none worse, but not as bad as it is expected to be in a lot of places, either. It's a government city with substantial immigrant populations so it has a lot of the qualities you are looking for. Parts of it aren't terribly progressive by Canadian standards, which makes them somewhat to the left of Marx by American standards.
posted by jacquilynne at 1:26 PM on July 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by jacquilynne at 1:26 PM on July 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
this list ranks cities on including rate of natural disasters, expected future temps, and other factors, including resiliency and vulnerability of the community
posted by monster_a at 1:34 PM on July 21, 2022
posted by monster_a at 1:34 PM on July 21, 2022
Montreal meets most of these criteria. Plenty of water, relatively low wildfire risk, moderate summers. It does get hot here in the summer, but less so than many places in the US. You'd have to learn French, though.
posted by mekily at 1:38 PM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by mekily at 1:38 PM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
Some of the criteria might be a little contradictory. Most places with sufficient water supply are going to either have pretty high humidity, flooding, or both.
Some others are so broad as to be meaningless. Every metro area over 200,000 people (and many well under that too!) will have cultural happenings, a good variety of restaurants, ethnic diversity, etc. I live in a city of like 80,000 people, and there are all kinds of restaurants: Salvadorean, Brazilian, Vietnamese, Nepali, Dominican. The reason is because there are Salvadoreans, Brazilians, Vietnamese, and Nepalis living here. Maybe not an entire neighborhood, but enough to support multiple businesses (markets and other stores in addition to the restaurants).
That said, the Great Lakes area is going to be your answer, for a few reasons. First, water. The Great Lakes contain more than 1/5 of the world's fresh water. Nowhere else in the entire world has that kind of access to water. Second, while there's a ton of water, the levels are relatively stable. Rivers are more prone to flooding than lakes. And the Great Lakes watershed isn't very big, especially along the southern parts. You're barely out of suburban Cleveland before you're out of the Lake Erie watershed. Third, because of the water, a lot of the region is agricultural, which means there aren't huge forests that can catch fire. That's not to say that there are no forests, but wildfires are a much lower risk. Fourth, in addition to agriculture, much of the region is heavily industrialized, and that's led to waves of migration from all over the place. There are more Iraqis in Dearborn, Michigan than any other city except Baghdad. There are so many Polish expatriates in the Chicago area that the Polish government runs polling places there for domestic elections. As a bonus, you get all this for some of the lowest cost of living in the country. The downside is the humidity, but it's not as bad as in the south, and pretty much everywhere with lower humidity has a higher risk of fire.
In most of the big cities, the "educated/professional" class tends to live in suburbs, and in smaller cities and towns, there's often not a critical mass of such people. The sweet spot is college towns: If I were you, I'd start my search in Ann Arbor and Madison, and go from there.
posted by kevinbelt at 1:50 PM on July 21, 2022 [14 favorites]
Some others are so broad as to be meaningless. Every metro area over 200,000 people (and many well under that too!) will have cultural happenings, a good variety of restaurants, ethnic diversity, etc. I live in a city of like 80,000 people, and there are all kinds of restaurants: Salvadorean, Brazilian, Vietnamese, Nepali, Dominican. The reason is because there are Salvadoreans, Brazilians, Vietnamese, and Nepalis living here. Maybe not an entire neighborhood, but enough to support multiple businesses (markets and other stores in addition to the restaurants).
That said, the Great Lakes area is going to be your answer, for a few reasons. First, water. The Great Lakes contain more than 1/5 of the world's fresh water. Nowhere else in the entire world has that kind of access to water. Second, while there's a ton of water, the levels are relatively stable. Rivers are more prone to flooding than lakes. And the Great Lakes watershed isn't very big, especially along the southern parts. You're barely out of suburban Cleveland before you're out of the Lake Erie watershed. Third, because of the water, a lot of the region is agricultural, which means there aren't huge forests that can catch fire. That's not to say that there are no forests, but wildfires are a much lower risk. Fourth, in addition to agriculture, much of the region is heavily industrialized, and that's led to waves of migration from all over the place. There are more Iraqis in Dearborn, Michigan than any other city except Baghdad. There are so many Polish expatriates in the Chicago area that the Polish government runs polling places there for domestic elections. As a bonus, you get all this for some of the lowest cost of living in the country. The downside is the humidity, but it's not as bad as in the south, and pretty much everywhere with lower humidity has a higher risk of fire.
In most of the big cities, the "educated/professional" class tends to live in suburbs, and in smaller cities and towns, there's often not a critical mass of such people. The sweet spot is college towns: If I were you, I'd start my search in Ann Arbor and Madison, and go from there.
posted by kevinbelt at 1:50 PM on July 21, 2022 [14 favorites]
Upper Manhattan in New York City for sure, probably other parts of NYC as well.
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 1:55 PM on July 21, 2022
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 1:55 PM on July 21, 2022
Seattle comes in number 2 on the list monster_a posted, and I agree with that. Other than the air quality when the wildfire season starts, and when the wind is blowing the wrong way, we seem better off than most when it comes to their metrics.
And, we don’t have the humidity of all those Great Lake adjacent states. Nor the winters they have.
posted by Windopaene at 2:00 PM on July 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
And, we don’t have the humidity of all those Great Lake adjacent states. Nor the winters they have.
posted by Windopaene at 2:00 PM on July 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
You should also consider places that can accommodate and sustain the increasing population it'll get as more and more people become climate refugees or just people looking for less extreme environments. WA state, for example, is already suffering from the impacts of massive growth from Californians fleeing fires and Texans fleeing heat/power grid issues, as the land for expansion is limited by terrain and various other things. You don't want to move somewhere and then be priced out or not be able to live the lifestyle you want comfortably a few years (or decades, or whatever) later.
posted by carlypennylane at 2:25 PM on July 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by carlypennylane at 2:25 PM on July 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
NYC is not where you want to live if you're worried about water shortages. The entire island is served by two water tunnels, both of which are badly in need of repairs. They can't be repaired until the completion of Water Tunnel 3, which has been under construction since 1970 and is now optimistically projected for completion in 2026.
posted by decathecting at 2:26 PM on July 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by decathecting at 2:26 PM on July 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
If it's sufficiently cosmopolitan for you, consider Duluth, MN.
posted by box at 2:30 PM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by box at 2:30 PM on July 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
15 or so years ago I predicted to my friends in the greater Seattle area that climate change would initiate 2 great migrations. the first is the migration of the (relatively) wealthy, predictably to places like Seattle that continue to show up as blue/green havens on temperature/precipitation maps. In those 15 years the city has sprawled in every possible direction, traffic and air quality have gotten remarkably worse, cost of living, driven by rents and high home prices have sky-rocketed.
the second migration will be a migration of the poor, as places become unlivable and they are forced to move to areas that are.
In short, some places may seem desirable now, and moving there now is not the worst idea, especially if you can own a home, because as that second migration begins, you will be even more privileged.
Maybe not an answer to your question, but food for thought, delete if it's too much of a derail.
posted by OHenryPacey at 2:37 PM on July 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
the second migration will be a migration of the poor, as places become unlivable and they are forced to move to areas that are.
In short, some places may seem desirable now, and moving there now is not the worst idea, especially if you can own a home, because as that second migration begins, you will be even more privileged.
Maybe not an answer to your question, but food for thought, delete if it's too much of a derail.
posted by OHenryPacey at 2:37 PM on July 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
You don't have sea level rise or hurricanes on your list, but they should really be there as two of the biggest impacts that climate change is already having. That will knock out all coastal cities worldwide (which is a lot of the world's cities) and many slightly inland areas as well that still will receive increasing hurricane impacts.
posted by hydropsyche at 3:02 PM on July 21, 2022
posted by hydropsyche at 3:02 PM on July 21, 2022
Response by poster: @hydropsyche Yes, thank you, definitely concerned about sea level rise and hurricanes, but my intention was for those to be covered by "not prone to flooding".
posted by Dansaman at 3:49 PM on July 21, 2022
posted by Dansaman at 3:49 PM on July 21, 2022
Just another thought: it's worth distinguishing between problems that don't discriminate/can decimate an entire city, and parts of climate change that can vary greatly within a single city's microclimates. So, in the list posted by monster_a, the worst cities are mostly those that could be totally flooded by a hurricane. And with a bad enough storm, there is no escape - even if your house gets spared, the infrastructure of the city will be down.
Whereas other issues do vary quite a bit - heat is one of them. In many cities, urban heat islands can be dramatically hotter than the leafier green neighborhoods. In terms of flooding, you can be strategic and consult topographical maps.
Another issue is local government - while obviously there is a limit to how much one city government can do, a city that is prioritizing urban greening and the like is going to be less affected by heat waves than a city in similar conditions, which isn't.
posted by coffeecat at 5:14 PM on July 21, 2022
Whereas other issues do vary quite a bit - heat is one of them. In many cities, urban heat islands can be dramatically hotter than the leafier green neighborhoods. In terms of flooding, you can be strategic and consult topographical maps.
Another issue is local government - while obviously there is a limit to how much one city government can do, a city that is prioritizing urban greening and the like is going to be less affected by heat waves than a city in similar conditions, which isn't.
posted by coffeecat at 5:14 PM on July 21, 2022
Get some boots on the ground - start visiting friends, old and new!
1. The real search is at the neighborhood level. Cities have microclimates and microgeographies. A house on a cliff can be well situated, while a house a block away can be already under sea level and at the mercy of a dike and a pump station.
2. The resilience happens at the community level. We saw this with the pandemic. Factor in the time it takes to enmesh yourself into the neighborhood. It's faster if you already have friends or family there. Hence - start visiting people!
posted by dum spiro spero at 7:39 PM on July 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
1. The real search is at the neighborhood level. Cities have microclimates and microgeographies. A house on a cliff can be well situated, while a house a block away can be already under sea level and at the mercy of a dike and a pump station.
2. The resilience happens at the community level. We saw this with the pandemic. Factor in the time it takes to enmesh yourself into the neighborhood. It's faster if you already have friends or family there. Hence - start visiting people!
posted by dum spiro spero at 7:39 PM on July 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
Honestly when I read your question, OP, my first thought was "yeah, good luck with that." Unless something drastically changes with humanity as a whole, I don't think anywhere is truly safe, and even "resilient" is going to be very conditional.
That said, the Great Lakes area is going to be your answer, for a few reasons.
I'm curious if your answer takes into account tornadoes, which we had a decent number of when I lived in NE Ohio (can't speak for the other areas around the Great Lakes). Superstorm Sandy also did a number on Cleveland, too, though not nearly as bad as New York, of course.
posted by tubedogg at 9:59 PM on July 21, 2022
That said, the Great Lakes area is going to be your answer, for a few reasons.
I'm curious if your answer takes into account tornadoes, which we had a decent number of when I lived in NE Ohio (can't speak for the other areas around the Great Lakes). Superstorm Sandy also did a number on Cleveland, too, though not nearly as bad as New York, of course.
posted by tubedogg at 9:59 PM on July 21, 2022
I'm curious if your answer takes into account tornadoes
No, but why should it? The question wasn’t about places entirely free of natural disasters. Tornadoes occur in all fifty states. They’re increasingly easy to predict and fairly easy to avoid - significantly more so than wildfires or floods. And it seems like the south is getting hit by more tornadoes recently (i.e., potentially attributable to global warming), while the number in the Midwest stays fairly consistent.
An anecdote: I lived in Ohio for 37 years and only saw one tornado, ever. And that was at work; it didn’t affect my home. Maybe I was really lucky, but I don’t know anyone else who had been hit by a tornado either.
posted by kevinbelt at 3:59 AM on July 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
No, but why should it? The question wasn’t about places entirely free of natural disasters. Tornadoes occur in all fifty states. They’re increasingly easy to predict and fairly easy to avoid - significantly more so than wildfires or floods. And it seems like the south is getting hit by more tornadoes recently (i.e., potentially attributable to global warming), while the number in the Midwest stays fairly consistent.
An anecdote: I lived in Ohio for 37 years and only saw one tornado, ever. And that was at work; it didn’t affect my home. Maybe I was really lucky, but I don’t know anyone else who had been hit by a tornado either.
posted by kevinbelt at 3:59 AM on July 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
Chicago! Our notoriously bad winters are getting milder (except for a snowpocalypse every now and then).
Heat, however. Most places will be prone to dangerously high heat. Nature of the nature, there.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:00 AM on July 22, 2022
Heat, however. Most places will be prone to dangerously high heat. Nature of the nature, there.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:00 AM on July 22, 2022
I live in a small, all brick house with a basement and central AC/heat on the south west side of Chicago and I have to say it's incredible how untouchable I feel at basically all times.
posted by phunniemee at 5:14 AM on July 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by phunniemee at 5:14 AM on July 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
The question wasn’t about places entirely free of natural disasters.
and
And it seems like the south is getting hit by more tornadoes recently
The latter of which was my point. I would be surprised if the Midwest doesn't also see them increase, too, if they haven't already (I didn't try to confirm your statement about it).
We can quibble about the semantics of what is easier to "avoid," but when a giant whirling mass of air rips a line of destruction through your town, you don't have time to move your house first. Yes, loss of life may be able to be minimized or eliminated more readily than with some other types of natural disasters, but it didn't sound like that was the only concern of OP's.
posted by tubedogg at 10:28 AM on July 22, 2022
and
And it seems like the south is getting hit by more tornadoes recently
The latter of which was my point. I would be surprised if the Midwest doesn't also see them increase, too, if they haven't already (I didn't try to confirm your statement about it).
We can quibble about the semantics of what is easier to "avoid," but when a giant whirling mass of air rips a line of destruction through your town, you don't have time to move your house first. Yes, loss of life may be able to be minimized or eliminated more readily than with some other types of natural disasters, but it didn't sound like that was the only concern of OP's.
posted by tubedogg at 10:28 AM on July 22, 2022
Most people wouldn't call the Albany/ Schenectady/ Troy area of New York "cosmopolitan" and it doesn't have as much going on as big cities, but in addition to having more climate change resilience than most areas it is more politically liberal than much of upstate NY, has a bunch of colleges to increase the range of cultural happenings, has less of the sprawl of big metropolitan areas so there is easily accessible farmland and forest, and there's a train to NYC.
posted by metasarah at 3:53 AM on July 23, 2022
posted by metasarah at 3:53 AM on July 23, 2022
The IPCC has a report, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, that looks at the predicted impacts of climate change on ecosystems, biodiversity, and human communities at global and regional levels. This is probably a more reliable source of information than random people's expectations drawn from past personal experiences.
In answer to another recent question, I had mentioned a 2015 study on the economic impact of climage change that provides an interactive map where you can see the predicted economic effects in the coming decades on various countries. I realize that's further out than your 5 year horizon, but personally, I would take into consideration how badly strained my destination country will be in the years after I've moved there.
posted by StrawberryPie at 9:18 AM on July 23, 2022
In answer to another recent question, I had mentioned a 2015 study on the economic impact of climage change that provides an interactive map where you can see the predicted economic effects in the coming decades on various countries. I realize that's further out than your 5 year horizon, but personally, I would take into consideration how badly strained my destination country will be in the years after I've moved there.
posted by StrawberryPie at 9:18 AM on July 23, 2022
One more thought: if you're considering other countries, you may also want find out about the general level of religiosity in those countries. Knowing how it diverges from your personal preferences can be another factor in your decision. There's a very nice 2018 Pew research report on how religious commitment varies by country which I found very informative. Also, there was a 2015 article in the Washington Post with a map of the world's least religious countries, with a table that you can sort in either direction. Despite that it's from 2015, I doubt that this is something that will change quickly, so I assume that the pattern remains more or less the same today and will change slowly, if at all.
posted by StrawberryPie at 9:32 AM on July 23, 2022
posted by StrawberryPie at 9:32 AM on July 23, 2022
I live in Cincinnati and while we're actually not in the Great Lakes watershed, we are still in a state that is part of the Great Lakes compact and that helps me rest easier at night. I would not advise living on the edge of a hill (we have many, they will be landslide risks) or next to a river (flooding), but otherwise I feel pretty safe here climate-wise. We are already seeing some climate related migration, and I've been urging my Cincinnnati expat friends who have moved elsewhere to come back before they get priced out. We need their votes to turn this increasingly red state back to purple.
posted by mostly vowels at 7:24 AM on July 25, 2022
posted by mostly vowels at 7:24 AM on July 25, 2022
I just came across a ProPublica article that I think is very relevant to your question: New climate maps show a transformed United States.
posted by StrawberryPie at 9:38 AM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by StrawberryPie at 9:38 AM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
This thread is closed to new comments.
posted by alchemist at 1:02 PM on July 21, 2022 [3 favorites]