When to book a flight: post pandemic edition
June 29, 2022 2:59 AM Subscribe
Flights from London-Tokyo seem to be going up. If I want to go next year, should I be booking right now?
I've been planning a trip to Japan since the beginning of lockdown, and have already cancelled and rebooked twice. I've also had quite a rough few weeks which have made me even more determined to finally go, especially as we had planned it to be our last big trip for some time. I was planning for next spring or autumn when reopening is more likely, and booking with airlines with flexibility as standard.
However, prices seem to have shot up since I started looking, even though there's no formal announcement regarding reopening yet. Even though it's on the verge of 'can I justify this?' at the moment, I'm worried pent-up demand and general inflation etc. means it will only rise. I've already looked at every permutation regarding layovers, dates (there seems to be no real variation in price as there normally is), airlines, originating airports (including outwith the UK, I've done it before to save money) changes and baggage being included/not included, and even with being entirely prepared to be flexible it's still £300 each more than it was in March. I realise I'm feeling quite carpe diem about things I've always wanted to do right now, but I'm feeling like I should book it ASAP instead of waiting for a sale - would that be unwise? Is it just going to be a very expensive destination now like going to Australia?
I know the answer might end up being 'don't go' or 'go somewhere else', and it's like asking how long a piece of string is, but I was hoping for insight from people who know more about travel.
I've been planning a trip to Japan since the beginning of lockdown, and have already cancelled and rebooked twice. I've also had quite a rough few weeks which have made me even more determined to finally go, especially as we had planned it to be our last big trip for some time. I was planning for next spring or autumn when reopening is more likely, and booking with airlines with flexibility as standard.
However, prices seem to have shot up since I started looking, even though there's no formal announcement regarding reopening yet. Even though it's on the verge of 'can I justify this?' at the moment, I'm worried pent-up demand and general inflation etc. means it will only rise. I've already looked at every permutation regarding layovers, dates (there seems to be no real variation in price as there normally is), airlines, originating airports (including outwith the UK, I've done it before to save money) changes and baggage being included/not included, and even with being entirely prepared to be flexible it's still £300 each more than it was in March. I realise I'm feeling quite carpe diem about things I've always wanted to do right now, but I'm feeling like I should book it ASAP instead of waiting for a sale - would that be unwise? Is it just going to be a very expensive destination now like going to Australia?
I know the answer might end up being 'don't go' or 'go somewhere else', and it's like asking how long a piece of string is, but I was hoping for insight from people who know more about travel.
I don't know anything about the current state of travel, but just to give you a different point of comparison: when I flew to Japan in April 2014 (direct flight Heathrow - Haneda), it cost me £900 (booking three months ahead, not in a sale), and checking just now, the equivalent flights for April 2023 (same dates, route and airline) are coming up at £1000. So *right now*, the prices for next spring seem to be about what I'd expect to spend, given the passage of time.
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 5:52 AM on June 29, 2022
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 5:52 AM on June 29, 2022
Ticket prices have gone up in part because of the fuel shortage, which is of course linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Should that conflict get worse between now and your intended travel date, prices will likely go up, not down - but if it gets resolved, and Russia is allowed back into the world economy, prices will likely go down.
posted by coffeecat at 8:33 AM on June 29, 2022
posted by coffeecat at 8:33 AM on June 29, 2022
This thread is closed to new comments.
They sold these flights thinking they could just rehire the people they had let go on crappy terms. Workers have found alternative employment in the meantime and are no longer available to be hired or willing to work for the poor pay they are offered. So there are not quick solutions to this. According to everything I've read the situation is not expected to normalise until next year. So I would not expect a sale any time soon. If you want to travel late in 2023 I'd say wait.
posted by koahiatamadl at 4:19 AM on June 29, 2022