Why didn't Putin invade Ukraine during the last US presidency?
January 27, 2022 9:34 PM Subscribe
I know little to nothing about the history on what is happening in Ukraine, but everything seemed a lot more Putin-friendly and US relations with allies seemed a lot more shaky with the last US presidency.
Why didn't Russia invade Ukraine between 2016-2020, when things were more chaotic and there was less risk of push-back from allied countries? Links to articles are welcome. Opinions welcome too.
Why didn't Russia invade Ukraine between 2016-2020, when things were more chaotic and there was less risk of push-back from allied countries? Links to articles are welcome. Opinions welcome too.
Response by poster: So...I was going to put into the original post if folks could be polite about this one, but figured I didn't need to. But based on the first answer, will put it here: If folks could be polite in their answers, that'd be appreciated.
Thanks They sucked his brains out!, you gave me a few things to look up.
posted by Toddles at 10:40 PM on January 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
Thanks They sucked his brains out!, you gave me a few things to look up.
posted by Toddles at 10:40 PM on January 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
Best answer: Word on the street is that the US and Germany have mentioned that Nord Stream 2 might go away if the invasion happens.
I'd be a fool to think Putin didn't plan on exactly that happening, but, there it is.
posted by armoir from antproof case at 10:43 PM on January 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'd be a fool to think Putin didn't plan on exactly that happening, but, there it is.
posted by armoir from antproof case at 10:43 PM on January 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
Best answer: I think it is a good question.
For me the best analysis i found so far is by Fiona Hill. Here a quote from her interview in Barrows, from 24 January
(...)
Fiona Hill: Part of the reason that Vladimir Putin is acting right now is because he senses great weakness on the part of the United States and understands, of course, that President Biden is very much preoccupied with the domestic agenda. I don’t think it’s any coincidence or accident that Putin has decided to act against the backdrop of Biden grappling with his own party to push forward on the various bills—Build Back Better—and against the backdrop of Biden’s efforts to fix four years of kind of a disastrous Trump presidency with all of the splits and the fractures that created at home and also then abroad. And this is where it all ties together, because the United States’s relationships with its closest allies in NATO and elsewhere have been weakened and frayed by the Trump period as well.
I also do think that Putin wants something out of Biden specifically, because Biden is a trans-Atlanticist. He doesn’t have to explain to Biden NATO, and he doesn’t have to explain to Biden all of these grievances that Russia has, because Biden knows what the roots of them are. He knows a lot about the arms-control environment. He’s been chairman of the [Senate] Foreign Relations Committee, before vice president. He’s dealt with all of these issues. If he [Putin] actually wants to get someone’s attention and get it so the person actually understands the signals he’s sending, then it’s Joe Biden. And he doesn’t want to kind of be competing for Biden’s attention with all of these other issues and China on top of all of that.
(...)
You should really read the whole interview, it is very interesting. Clicking on the link you are asked to subscribe, but you can just close that pop-up and read the full Interview.
posted by 15L06 at 11:06 PM on January 27, 2022 [18 favorites]
For me the best analysis i found so far is by Fiona Hill. Here a quote from her interview in Barrows, from 24 January
(...)
Fiona Hill: Part of the reason that Vladimir Putin is acting right now is because he senses great weakness on the part of the United States and understands, of course, that President Biden is very much preoccupied with the domestic agenda. I don’t think it’s any coincidence or accident that Putin has decided to act against the backdrop of Biden grappling with his own party to push forward on the various bills—Build Back Better—and against the backdrop of Biden’s efforts to fix four years of kind of a disastrous Trump presidency with all of the splits and the fractures that created at home and also then abroad. And this is where it all ties together, because the United States’s relationships with its closest allies in NATO and elsewhere have been weakened and frayed by the Trump period as well.
I also do think that Putin wants something out of Biden specifically, because Biden is a trans-Atlanticist. He doesn’t have to explain to Biden NATO, and he doesn’t have to explain to Biden all of these grievances that Russia has, because Biden knows what the roots of them are. He knows a lot about the arms-control environment. He’s been chairman of the [Senate] Foreign Relations Committee, before vice president. He’s dealt with all of these issues. If he [Putin] actually wants to get someone’s attention and get it so the person actually understands the signals he’s sending, then it’s Joe Biden. And he doesn’t want to kind of be competing for Biden’s attention with all of these other issues and China on top of all of that.
(...)
You should really read the whole interview, it is very interesting. Clicking on the link you are asked to subscribe, but you can just close that pop-up and read the full Interview.
posted by 15L06 at 11:06 PM on January 27, 2022 [18 favorites]
Best answer: I would second 15L06, and add more context from the Valdai Discussion Club, the intellectual mouthpiece of the Kremlin:
Regarding Russia, there was a “roller coaster”. Earlier this year, the Biden administration launched a sanctions attack in connection with the Navalny case and another report that Russia interfered in US elections (in 2020). The intensity of the self-righteous ire was far from what was witnessed after the Trump election. The US intelligence report, issued in accordance with Executive Order 13648, spoke of “petty hooliganism” rather than of some systemic attack on American elections. In connection with the Navalny case, the US President was obliged to apply Art. 307 of the Chemical and Bacteriological Weapons Destruction Act 1991 (CBW Act). These measures culminated in April 2021, when Biden signed Executive Order 14024. The Order systematised claims against Russia and imposed sanctions on the Russian high tech sector. At the same time, a number of Russian cyber security companies were blocked. Biden has expanded bans on the purchase of Russian debt in the primary market. Now this prohibition applies to bonds denominated in rubles. The number of Russian persons included in the Entity List and MEU List was expanded. They are subject to export restrictions. Ten Russian diplomats were expelled from the United States (Moscow responded with expulsions and banned the US diplomatic missions from hiring Russian personnel). However, following the Putin-Biden summit in Geneva, the situation has stabilised. Episodes of expanding sanctions on new Russian individuals have been sporadic. Markets were worried amid the emergence of a new decree and expectations for the implementation of Art. 307 of the CBW Act, but then lost interest in the sanctions topic.
The situation with Nord Stream 2 has also stabilised. Throughout 2020, the US discussed tougher sanctions against Russian pipeline projects. However, the eventually adopted PEESCA law (an amendment to the 2019 PEESA law) did not radically change the situation. Moreover, it took into account the concerns of Washington’s European allies to some extent. The Biden administration used sanctions against Russian legal entities and vessels involved in the Nord Stream 2 project, but it did not block it. As a result, the pipeline was completed.
In the Russian view, Biden has already made a number of aggressive moves, and Russia now has more reason to hit back, and less at stake in doing so, than when Trump was in office.
Further, for a significant chunk of his term, the Ukrainian President Zelensky was seen by Russia as weak and pliable, right up until he banned pro-Russian media, greatly angering Russia and giving it a fresh pretext for retaliation.
posted by StrikeTheViol at 11:32 PM on January 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
Regarding Russia, there was a “roller coaster”. Earlier this year, the Biden administration launched a sanctions attack in connection with the Navalny case and another report that Russia interfered in US elections (in 2020). The intensity of the self-righteous ire was far from what was witnessed after the Trump election. The US intelligence report, issued in accordance with Executive Order 13648, spoke of “petty hooliganism” rather than of some systemic attack on American elections. In connection with the Navalny case, the US President was obliged to apply Art. 307 of the Chemical and Bacteriological Weapons Destruction Act 1991 (CBW Act). These measures culminated in April 2021, when Biden signed Executive Order 14024. The Order systematised claims against Russia and imposed sanctions on the Russian high tech sector. At the same time, a number of Russian cyber security companies were blocked. Biden has expanded bans on the purchase of Russian debt in the primary market. Now this prohibition applies to bonds denominated in rubles. The number of Russian persons included in the Entity List and MEU List was expanded. They are subject to export restrictions. Ten Russian diplomats were expelled from the United States (Moscow responded with expulsions and banned the US diplomatic missions from hiring Russian personnel). However, following the Putin-Biden summit in Geneva, the situation has stabilised. Episodes of expanding sanctions on new Russian individuals have been sporadic. Markets were worried amid the emergence of a new decree and expectations for the implementation of Art. 307 of the CBW Act, but then lost interest in the sanctions topic.
The situation with Nord Stream 2 has also stabilised. Throughout 2020, the US discussed tougher sanctions against Russian pipeline projects. However, the eventually adopted PEESCA law (an amendment to the 2019 PEESA law) did not radically change the situation. Moreover, it took into account the concerns of Washington’s European allies to some extent. The Biden administration used sanctions against Russian legal entities and vessels involved in the Nord Stream 2 project, but it did not block it. As a result, the pipeline was completed.
In the Russian view, Biden has already made a number of aggressive moves, and Russia now has more reason to hit back, and less at stake in doing so, than when Trump was in office.
Further, for a significant chunk of his term, the Ukrainian President Zelensky was seen by Russia as weak and pliable, right up until he banned pro-Russian media, greatly angering Russia and giving it a fresh pretext for retaliation.
posted by StrikeTheViol at 11:32 PM on January 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
Best answer: Ps. I just read an article, at Timothy Snyder's substack, also dealing with why and why now, but in a more general way. He also (being a historian) has some very interesting historical background articles there.
posted by 15L06 at 5:57 AM on January 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by 15L06 at 5:57 AM on January 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
Because this is all more complex than Democrat v Republican. Russia annexed the Crimea under Obama; Trump stole headlines for his erratic behavior with Putin but still imposed sanctions; Biden stepped back from sanctions and appears weak internationally. None of this is to say I understand exactly what’s going on or to say who is good and bad, but that foreign policy stuff in DC *always* is more complex than the partisan stuff that seems to be the reality in domestic affairs.
posted by haptic_avenger at 6:01 AM on January 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by haptic_avenger at 6:01 AM on January 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
Best answer: I listened to this interview with a Russia hand on NPR, who hinted that the Ukraine conflict was a smokescreen for something else. At least that's how I interpreted it.
posted by adamrice at 6:39 AM on January 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by adamrice at 6:39 AM on January 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
Best answer: Politico deep-dive podcast talks with Kurt Volker (former ambassador). Also insightful.
posted by From Bklyn at 7:13 AM on January 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by From Bklyn at 7:13 AM on January 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
And another thing, fully invading Ukraine is also not something one should rush into. Just consider it's size. It is bigger in land mass and population than California (603,628 km2 vs 423,970 km2 and 41 million vs 39 million). So while Trump was wildly erratic and did some negative things towards Russia policy wise, he was still making nice publicly with Putin so he could keep the status quo and be happy. Biden as others mention understands the problem space and knows the regional actors and could actually get world leaders to do things that are substantially negative to Russia. Putin ratcheting up the posture and aggressiveness is meant to convey a message that people shouldn't take action 'because there will be consequences'.
What should be remembered is that while Putin seems all powerful, he is governing a huge, poorer than it should be country that has a ton of internal strife (especially so when you consider how much internal dissent is punished). He does this by empowering all the Russian oligarchs to behave in ways that make the 19th robber barons blush and he keeps them in line via threats of jailing or physical violence. The oligarchs only stay in line if they can live their lives normally in Russia and enjoy what their ill gotten gains can purchase in the Americas, Western European and Asia. Putin needs to be seen as in control and holding all the cards lest someone come for him. I really like Russian born, American journalist Julia Ioffe's piece, What Putin Wants.
posted by mmascolino at 8:41 AM on January 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
What should be remembered is that while Putin seems all powerful, he is governing a huge, poorer than it should be country that has a ton of internal strife (especially so when you consider how much internal dissent is punished). He does this by empowering all the Russian oligarchs to behave in ways that make the 19th robber barons blush and he keeps them in line via threats of jailing or physical violence. The oligarchs only stay in line if they can live their lives normally in Russia and enjoy what their ill gotten gains can purchase in the Americas, Western European and Asia. Putin needs to be seen as in control and holding all the cards lest someone come for him. I really like Russian born, American journalist Julia Ioffe's piece, What Putin Wants.
posted by mmascolino at 8:41 AM on January 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
Hey, @Toddles, not sure if you'll see this but: Sorry about my snotty reply last night. I was a jerk, and I apologize. I was buzzed and dumb and shouldn't have posted. I'm glad you got some good, serious replies.
posted by jdroth at 10:08 AM on January 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by jdroth at 10:08 AM on January 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
If he [Putin] actually wants to get someone’s attention and get it so the person actually understands the signals he’s sending, then it’s Joe Biden.
Quoted for truth.
It's not clear that Putin has any real intention of invading Ukraine. He's certainly got NATO's attention though.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 9:40 PM on January 28, 2022
Quoted for truth.
It's not clear that Putin has any real intention of invading Ukraine. He's certainly got NATO's attention though.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 9:40 PM on January 28, 2022
He has already invaded Ukraine and it has been ongoing since 2014.
posted by tarvuz at 11:14 PM on January 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by tarvuz at 11:14 PM on January 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
The aforementioned Timothy Snyder was interviewed on the New Yorker podcast: Russia's Intentions in Ukraine
posted by mmascolino at 12:22 PM on January 31, 2022
posted by mmascolino at 12:22 PM on January 31, 2022
This thread is closed to new comments.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:21 PM on January 27, 2022 [2 favorites]