When life gives you lemons . . .

April 2, 2006 2:04 PM

Are there reputable projections for global warming's impact on the inland United States?

Recently we've all seen projected coastal changes (due to rising sea levels), but beyond general predictions of drought for the interior, I haven't seen anything specific. I don't know if it's possible to develop meaningful projections anyway, but I'm hoping someone has tried.

My purpose: I wonder where a young family could relocate to that would be 1) more affordable--housing-wise--than the coasts today, and 2) less likely to suffer from environmental disasters in the future, if not downright pleasant because of them. (And it's not realistic, at least for us, to move overseas.)

I realize this is highly speculative, but you'd have to be an idiot to not plan for the coming changes, right? If you have young kids, how are you thinking about this whole mess?

posted by danny boy to science & nature (9 comments total)

(One other consideration-we can't just move to a cabin in the Appalachians or something, since we're not rich and will need to be in/near a metropolitan area for professional employment.)
posted by danny boy at 2:14 PM on April 2, 2006

The best place to be if the seas rise (or most other disasters) is a) not on the coast and b) away from a lot of people. If you're serious about this, getting some farmable land in the country is par for the course.

That said, Colorado doesn't seem like a bad choice. Plenty of space out there compared to the people. If shit goes bad there are places to go. Denver has good jobs. Hiking is stunning (an hour or two to the Rockies). Not sure how cheap it is.
posted by devilsbrigade at 2:20 PM on April 2, 2006

Sure, I've thought about getting a place with some acreage so you could grow your own (should it come to that), but it wouldn't make any difference if we ended up in a dustbowl area.
posted by danny boy at 2:24 PM on April 2, 2006

This interview on NPR last week with Michael Oppenheimer, professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University, was very enlightening for me.

He basically acknowledged that they still don't know exactly what timeframe the destruction is on, but he does include some best-we-can-guess projections.
posted by pineapple at 2:32 PM on April 2, 2006

Are they projecting the rise to be so ridiculously quick that the coasts are inundated New Orleans-style? I can't imagine the sea rising gradually and everyone just saying, "Well, New York is done. Everyone out!" instead of calling in the Dutch.
posted by TheOnlyCoolTim at 3:41 PM on April 2, 2006

I've been looking for reliable information on this for quite a while, for purposes of land speculation. (What? That $10/acre tundra you bought now has a mediterranean climate? Nice.)

I have yet to come across any data that looks convincing. Even the most die-hard proponents of Global Warming theory have vastly different projections for the overall timing and changes to the weather patterns. Seriously, they run the full gamut from drought-plagued deserts in Canada to a new ice age.

One thing I've read that I do believe is that if every single peice of free ice on Earth melted, you could look for the oceans to rise about 220 feet -- so, as long as you moved to someplace about 230 feet above current sea level, you should be fine even under the most drastic of scenarios. Most scenarios I've seen call for sea level to rise between 2 and 10 feet.
posted by tkolar at 4:17 PM on April 2, 2006

TheOnlyCoolTim (who's username I'll let be for now) wrote...
"Well, New York is done. Everyone out!" instead of calling in the Dutch.

You never know, they could still be pissed about that whole New Amsterdam thing.
posted by tkolar at 4:19 PM on April 2, 2006

Hang on a minute. The ocean isn't going to coming rushing up overnight. This stuff will happen slowly, as you watch your children grow up. Which is actually insanely fast, if you're a climate scientist. But nobody is going to riot or panic over unusual weather patterns. Plenty of people in NOLA tried to ride out Katrina.

This won't be a rioting-in-the-streets disaster. Instead, think of farm foreclosures, migrations, and wars. Condemned skyscrapers sitting in marshes, causeways over flooded cropland, and zoning board meetings to plan the new freight line. Insurance companies going bankrupt, dredging companies going bankrupt, shipping companies opening new sea routes.

The fight for food and resources will be brutal. But it will be fought with tanks and planes and soldiers. So stay in the United States, live in a large city, keep your professional job. Move to a good school district and send your children to college. Watch the business executives, the investment bankers, and the politicians. Follow their example. Their children will be the last to die.
posted by ryanrs at 4:36 PM on April 2, 2006 [1 favorite has favorites]

My,my ryanrs, what a happy comment!

Flagged as excellent.
posted by lalochezia at 8:09 PM on April 2, 2006